7 Keys to Victory in Dallas Cowboys' Week 5 Matchup
After a 2-2 start in the first month of the season, the Dallas Cowboys will be looking to rebound against an old nemesis in the shape of the Green Bay Packers on Sunday.
The Packers have knocked the Cowboys out of the playoffs in two of the last three seasons and could hurt their playoff chances this year if they were to give them three losses before their Week 6 bye.
Despite their two losses on the season, this game will be the Cowboys' toughest challenge yet, as their young, inexperienced defense will face off against one of the best quarterbacks of the past decade, Aaron Rodgers.
If the Cowboys can't drastically improve on their defensive performance from last week, this one will be over quick.
However, if the Cowboys can move the ball as effectively as they did last week, particularly in the first half, they will give themselves a chance. But a lot of things will need to happen for Dallas to pull off an upset against one of the league's best teams.
Here are the seven keys to victory for the Cowboys if they want to grab ahold of a 3-2 record heading into their bye week.
Don't Give Aaron Rodgers Free Plays
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At this point, drawing defenders offside (and catching teams with extra defenders on the field) and taking shots down the field is a staple of the Packers offense.
No one in the NFL is better at drawing the penalty and then chucking it deep than Rodgers.
In four games this year, the Packers quarterback has already lured defenders offside five different times. According to NFL Penalty Tracker, only the Titans (six) have done it more frequently.
The Cowboys can't fall victim to Rodgers' hard counts again this season. In 2016, he was able to catch Dallas offside or with 12 defenders on the field three separate times.
On one of those plays, the "12 men on the field" penalty negated what would have been a drive-ending sack; on another play, he found tight end Richard Rodgers open for a touchdown on the first drive in their divisional matchup with the Cowboys.
The Packers offense is already one of the best in the league, so Dallas can't afford to give up free plays because of lack of discipline.
With the Dallas defense rotating so much, it needs to be ready in case Rodgers does try to catch the team off guard. If the Cowboys can "hold their water" and not be beat by silly penalties, they should be able to limit the Packers' big plays.
Win the 1st Quarter
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Since 2008 (when Rodgers took over), the Packers have lost just 13 of 73 games after having a lead after the first quarter, according to Pro Football Reference.
Dallas' entire team is built around establishing a lead early. The Cowboys use that lead to continue to run the ball and control the clock as they protect their defense.
In the regular-season matchup last year, Dallas jumped out to a 7-3 lead after the first quarter and eventually extended that to 17-6 by halftime. It's no surprise the Cowboys dominated that game in the second half as they were able to pound Ezekiel Elliott.
In the playoff matchup, though, it was the Packers who took an early 7-3 lead, and Dallas was never able to catch up.
Whoever can start off fast in this matchup should be able to control the overall tempo and the game. Look for the Cowboys to be aggressive as they make sure they grab a quick lead in this contest.
Win on the Outside
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The Packers defense, specifically their secondary, is the biggest weakness of their team. If Dallas can control them up front (mostly Mike Daniels), the team should have no problem running or passing the ball at will.
The Cowboys can expose the Packers' weak cornerbacks. According to Pro Football Focus, all three of the Packers' top cornerbacks have graded outside of the top 90 at their position.
Their top two cornerbacks, Kevin King and Damarious Randall, have been exposed all season on the outside.
Dez Bryant just went through one of the toughest stretches of his career in terms of weekly matchups on the outside and now should be able to feast on the young, inexperienced Green Bay secondary.
In last year's playoff matchup, Bryant exploded with nine catches for 132 yards and two touchdowns on 12 targets.
It's going to be hard for him to match that production, but expect him to have a massive performance on Sunday. However, the Packers could opt to double him and force Dak Prescott to throw to the secondary receivers such as Cole Beasley, Terrance Williams and Brice Butler.
Nevertheless, expect Dallas to take advantage of this matchup on the outside as the Packers try to figure out who their top cornerbacks are on the roster.
Provided the Cowboys can keep their quarterback upright, the receivers should be in for a monster performance this week.
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Punish the Packers Run Defense
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Through four games, the Packers run defense has been gashed. They have allowed over 110 rushing yards per game in the first month of the season. Teams are averaging over 4.2 yards per carry against Green Bay and have rushed for 23 first downs.
As you dig into the numbers, though, the Packers rush defense is even worse than it appears. On first down, teams are averaging 4.88 yards per carry and they have given up seven runs of 10 yards or more, according to Pro Football Reference.
This is good news for the Cowboys as they are looking to continue to get their rushing attack back on track.
On Sunday, Dallas rushed the ball more efficiently as the team ran for 189 yards on 27 carries. However, that total is somewhat skewed as Alfred Morris had a 70-yard run in the second quarter. Lead back Ezekiel Elliott ran for just 85 yards on 21 carries.
To control the clock and keep Rodgers off the field, the rushing attack will need to be as dominant as ever in this matchup.
In the two matchups last year, Dallas ran for 329 yards on 57 carries (5.77 yards per carry). The Cowboys will need that type of efficiency again if they want to get revenge on their NFC North rivals.
Make Aaron Rodgers Throw the Ball Quickly
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No matter how you slice it, Aaron Rodgers is fantastic. There's only so much you can do to stop him, and even certain packages and defensive schemes only somewhat limit him.
However, there are a few little things Dallas could try to attempt to slow down Rodgers and the Green Bay passing attack.
The 33-year-old has "struggled" some when forced to get rid of the ball quickly this season. His passer rating drops from 109.2 to 94.5 when he has less than 2.5 seconds to throw the ball, according to Pro Football Focus.
If Dallas can get quick pressure on him by blitzing or getting pressure with the front four, it could decrease Rodgers' effectiveness in this contest.
However, Dallas isn't likely to blitz often in this game, especially with the return of defensive end David Irving. Instead, look for the Cowboys to use their "deacon" defensive package that includes just three defensive linemen and two linebackers. The thinking behind this defense is that it allows more defensive backs to be in coverage to prevent big plays, but it will concede shorter passes.
The longer the young, inexperienced defensive backs have to cover, the worse they are going to look against Rodgers. Dallas must find a way to get to Rodgers early and often or this will turn into a shootout in which the Cowboys won't be able to keep up.
Win the Turnover Battle
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When Aaron Rodgers is on the field, the Packers are 71-8-1 (89 win percentage) when winning the turnover battle, according to Pro Football Reference.
Under head coach Jason Garrett, the Cowboys have a win percentage of 81 (35-8) when Dallas triumphs in the turnover battle.
Needless to say, whoever can win this matchup will likely claim this game. This season, the Packers have a plus-two turnover differential, while the Cowboys are minus-one in the area. That has to change quickly or Dallas can wave goodbye to its playoff chances in 2017.
In the first Cowboys-Packers matchup last season, Dallas forced four turnovers and won the turnover differential by two. In the second game, though, they each just turned the ball over once.
Dallas' roster isn't good enough to beat the Packers without winning the turnover battle. The Cowboys will need some splash plays from their defense and for their offense to control the ball if they want any shot at winning this game.
If the defense can't force any turnovers, it could be a long day of watching Rodgers move the ball up and down the field on this young defense.
Win on Special Teams
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Last Sunday, Dallas' special teams cost it a valuable win. Despite the Cowboys outgaining the Rams, averaging more yards per play and being more efficient on third downs, they lost the game due to poor special teams play.
Ryan Switzer's play in the special teams' portion of the game cost the Cowboys a win. His muffed punt led to the Rams scoring a touchdown a few plays later. His turnover cost Dallas a possession and allowed the Rams offense to get back on track after three straight possessions without getting into the red zone.
Not only was Switzer's muffed return costly, he also returned three kicks from deep in the end zone that he had no business returning. On all three, he failed to cross the 25-yard line. It was a forgettable game for the return unit.
To make matters worse, the coverage unit wasn't much better. After Dallas took a 10-6 lead, it allowed the Rams to return a kickoff 66 yards, which put them in field-goal range. The Cowboys held their offense to a three-and-out, but the Rams were still able to kick a relatively short field goal because of the poor special teams' coverage.
The Cowboys are going to be up against one of the best offenses in the league on Sunday, so they can't afford to give their opponent any short fields or extra possessions.
Dallas will need to dominate in the kicking game if it wants to give itself a realistic chance at stealing a game against one of the best teams in the NFL. The Cowboys need their special teams unit to be special on Sunday.
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