Hall of Fame Chances for Each of the NBA's Top 15 Players

Adam Fromal@fromal09National NBA Featured ColumnistSeptember 7, 2017

Hall of Fame Chances for Each of the NBA's Top 15 Players

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    Jason Miller/Getty Images

    Making the Hall of Fame is the ultimate honor for an NBA player, even if the league's premier contributors are currently far more focused on winning MVP and helping their teams earn a shot at the 2018 title. Gain admission into that ultra-exclusive fraternity, and you've cemented your legacy as one of the greatest to ever grace the hardwood. 

    Plenty of the league's current top 15 players will eventually join the retired legends officially becoming members of the Hall on Friday, to the point that you might be surprised at the optimism in this article. 

    But not all of them are on such a lofty trajectory. 

    Just remember: The best and brightest tend to rise to the top year in and year out. Many of the similarly elite players from any given season eventually wind up earning induction, though there are always exceptions. This class will be no different, whether we're talking about the veteran studs still holding steady or the up-and-comers ready to take over the top of the league-wide hierarchy. 

    Do note that we're presenting these players alphabetically by last name, so as to keep the focus on their Hall candidacies rather than the order in which they're ranked. 

Giannis Antetokounmpo, SG/SF/PF, Milwaukee Bucks

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    Jason Miller/Getty Images

    Age: 22

    Career Stats: 14.9 points, 6.9 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.1 steals, 1.3 blocks

    Career Accolades: All-Star, All-NBA, All-Defensive, All-Rookie, Most Improved Player

    Current Hall of Fame Probability: Hasn't met the 400-game threshold

    After becoming the first player in NBA history to finish in the top 20 for points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks, Giannis Antetokounmpo appears to be trending toward the Hall of Fame. Even if he never develops a consistent jumper, his unique, positionless brand of basketball has already made him one of the 10 best players in the world before he's celebrated his 23rd birthday. 

    Frankly, not many men would be selected ahead of Antetokounmpo if we were starting the league from scratch. You could make a convincing argument that he's the No. 1 franchise centerpiece right now, given his malleable set of skills, youth and untapped potential. 

    But that doesn't make him a Hall of Famer. Not yet, at least. 

    Antetokounmpo's list of accolades is still rather short, and all but his All-Rookie selection came during the 2016-17 campaign. What if that was a fluke and he regresses going forward? What if injuries wreck his career before he's led the Milwaukee Bucks to anything more than a first-round exit from the Eastern Conference playoffs? 

    Obviously, we hope that doesn't happen. It shouldn't happen. 

    But a 22-year-old, even when he's asserted himself as arguably the league's best foundational piece, can't make the Hall without plenty going right as time progresses. 


    Prediction: Long way to go, but definitely on track. 

Jimmy Butler, SG/SF, Minnesota Timberwolves

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    Gary Dineen/Getty Images

    Age: 27

    Career Stats: 15.6 points, 4.8 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.5 steals, 0.5 blocks

    Career Accolades: Three-time All-Star, All-NBA, three-time All-Defensive, Most Improved Player

    Current Hall of Fame Probability: Hasn't met the 400-game threshold

    Jimmy Butler has become one of the league's true two-way superstars, but that doesn't mean he's on pace to earn Springfield induction. It took him too long to reach this level, and there's no telling how long he can remain worthy of celestial status before Father Time drains some of his athletic reserves. 

    The swingman could prove all the worrying wrong if he starts winning with the Minnesota Timberwolves, though. Should he lead the up-and-coming franchise to a few titles in the stacked-beyond-belief Western Conference, his resume would suddenly look quite a bit stronger. 

    But right now? He hasn't really asserted himself as one of the league's five best players at any point in his career, and he has yet to appear in the NBA Finals. Without either of those accomplishments, his case is left wanting. 

    Butler will go down in the history books as one of the great draft-day steals. It's almost unfathomable that a player this talented came off the board after 29 others in 2011, even though his Marquette career made such a selection more reasonable at the time. 

    But a draft steal does not a Hall of Famer make. 


    Probability: Highly unlikely without creating a Minnesota dynasty. 

Stephen Curry, PG, Golden State Warriors

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    G Fiume/Getty Images

    Age: 29

    Career Stats: 22.8 points, 4.4 rebounds, 6.8 assists, 1.8 steals, 0.2 blocks

    Career Accolades: Four-time All-Star, scoring champion, two-time NBA champion, four-time All-NBA, All-Rookie, two-time MVP

    Current Hall of Fame Probability: 97.6 percent

    What more does Stephen Curry have to accomplish in the NBA? 

    He's shattered virtually every three-point record in existence, with the exception of the career mark held by Ray Allen. He's unquestionably the greatest shooter in basketball history, given his ability to mix together volume, efficiency and shot-creation. He's a two-time champion who served as a spark plug for the league's newest dynasty. He's a two-time MVP who became the first player ever to win the most prestigious award in unanimous fashion. 

    His resume is simply unimpeachable. If you really want to pick at nits, I suppose you could point to Andre Iguodala and Kevin Durant winning Finals MVP at his expense during each of the Golden State Warriors' two championships...but c'mon now. 

    If Curry decided to quit before the start of the 2017-18 campaign because he wanted to try his hand at the four-point line in BIG3 action, he'd still be a first-ballot Hall of Famer. 

    Call him what he is: a lock. 


    Prediction: Could retire now as a lock.

Anthony Davis, PF/C, New Orleans Pelicans

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    Layne Murdoch/Getty Images

    Age: 24

    Career Stats: 22.4 points, 10.2 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.3 steals, 2.4 blocks

    Career Accolades: Four-time All-Star, two-time All-NBA, two-time All-Defensive, All-Rookie

    Current Hall of Fame Probability: Hasn't met the 400-game threshold

    A few years ago, Anthony Davis' status as a future Hall of Famer would've seemed like a foregone conclusion. Coming off an incredible 2014-15 campaign in which he trailed only Stephen Curry, James Harden, LeBron James and Russell Westbrook in the MVP balloting, he'd turned the NBA into his oyster. He, not Antetokounmpo, was the preeminent building block, and he still had so much more unrealized two-way potential. 

    But injuries have allowed doubt to creep into the equation. 

    Dating back to his rookie season out of Kentucky, Davis has now missed time because of—takes a deep breath and prepares for a lengthy list—a concussion, a stress reaction in his left ankle, a sprained left shoulder, a sprained MCL and bone bruise in his left knee, a fractured left hand, a finger injury, an upper respiratory infection, another left ankle injury, back spasms, a chest injury, a sprained left toe, a sprained left groin, a sprained right shoulder, another sprained right shoulder, a third injury to his left ankle, a strained right hip, another shoulder injury, a bruised back, a second concussion, a right big toe injury, a left knee injury that required offseason surgery, a torn labrum in his left shoulder, another sprained ankle, a bruised right quadriceps, a bruised right hip and a sore left knee. 

    I wish that was a joke. But unfortunately, that's the lengthy list of maladies suffered during the first five years of his professional career that has forced him to miss 75 total contests. 

    If Davis can stay healthy—and, it's worth noting, he's suffered few major blows to his health—he's a remarkable talent who could rack up MVPs and lead his team to the promised land. That just seems far from guaranteed at this stage. 


    Prediction: Tracking toward Springfield if he stops getting injured.

Kevin Durant, SF, Golden State Warriors

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    Jesse D. Garrabrant/Getty Images

    Age: 28

    Career Stats: 27.2 points, 7.2 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1.2 steals, 1.0 blocks

    Career Accolades: Eight-time All-Star, four-time scoring champion, NBA champion, seven-time All-NBA, All-Rookie, Finals MVP, MVP, Rookie of the Year

    Current Hall of Fame Probability: 99.9 percent

    Forget about that pesky number that represents Kevin Durant's current probability. For all intents and purposes, he could retire right now and have a 100 percent chance of earning induction into the Hall of Fame. 

    Durant may be a few years away from entering his 30s, but that's irrelevant.

    He's already joined George Gervin, Allen Iverson, Wilt Chamberlain and Michael Jordan (all in the Hall) as one of only five men with at least four scoring titles. He checked the championship off his bucket list by teaming up with the Golden State Warriors to dethrone the Cleveland Cavaliers and did so in such dominant fashion that he was named Finals MVP and firmly erased any doubts that he was just along for the ride. He's even won MVP, and every eligible player with that award under his belt has made the cut.

    At this point, his status should already be beyond a shadow of a doubt. But it still helps that he's emerged as arguably the greatest scorer ever.

    Durant's per-game average (27.2) leaves him behind just Wilt Chamberlain (30.1), Michael Jordan (30.1) and Elgin Baylor (27.4) throughout all of NBA history. His true shooting percentage (60.8), however, eclipses the others (54.7, 56.9 and 49.4, respectively) with room to spare. 


    Prediction: Could retire now as a lock.

Rudy Gobert, C, Utah Jazz

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    Stacy Revere/Getty Images

    Age: 25

    Career Stats: 9.2 points, 9.8 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.6 steals, 2.2 blocks

    Career Accolades: All-NBA, All-Defensive

    Current Hall of Fame Probability: Hasn't met the 400-game threshold

    Rudy Gobert isn't yet within sniffing distance of the Hall of Fame, and that's not just because he has yet to surpass the 400-game threshold needed for Basketball-Reference.com to calculate probability. 

    Just look at the limited list of accolades. 

    What you can't see are all the near-misses. Gobert had a significant shot to be Defensive Player of the Year each of the last two seasons, but he finished seventh in 2015-16 and then was narrowly edged out for the trophy by Draymond Green in 2016-17. He had a convincing argument to be one of the Western Conference's All-Star representatives this past season but was inexplicably left out. 

    Making the All-Defensive and All-NBA squads once apiece is a great start, but Gobert has to cover a lot of ground during his prime years.

    He's a game-changing presence around the basket and has blossomed into an incredibly impactful offensive force despite his shooting limitations. That now has to result in plenty of victories for the Utah Jazz, which would ensure the world at large recognizes him as the team's best player while it remains in the Western Conference playoff hunt. 

    Gobert was better than Gordon Hayward last year. That'll remain true in 2017-18 now they've parted ways. But in the Hall of Fame race, it's not even close to enough. 

    Replicating his last campaign over and over for the next five years would put the "Stifle Tower" on the outskirts of the Springfield race. Continuing to improve into a well-rounded contributor would leave him on the right trajectory. 

    That's just a lot easier said than done. 


    Prediction: Far too early to tell. 

Draymond Green, PF, Golden State Warriors

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    G Fiume/Getty Images

    Age: 27

    Career Stats: 9.0 points, 6.8 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.4 steals, 1.0 blocks

    Career Accolades: Two-time All-Star, two-time NBA champion, two-time All-NBA, three-time All-Defensive, Defensive Player of the Year

    Current Hall of Fame Probability: Hasn't met the 400-game threshold

    Draymond Green's progression to this point is almost literally unbelievable. 

    Rewind a few years, and he was stuck on Mark Jackson's bench, waiting for a coaching change to Steve Kerr and an injury to David Lee that would allow him to break into the starting lineup and explode as a versatile power forward. Rewind a few more years and he was coming off the board at No. 35 in the 2012 NBA draft, trying to overcome concerns like this one expressed by Kyle Nelson of DraftExpress:

    "Unfortunately, Green's defensive deficiencies have become even more pronounced as a senior. At 6'7, he is too small to guard elite post players, and lacks the lateral quickness to defend perimeter players, even face-up power forwards at the NCAA level. While his effort and aggressiveness will never be questioned, it is difficult to project him as an adequate NBA defender at this time...

    "While Green certainly doesn't look the part of an NBA player, there is no doubt that he possesses a variety of skills that at the very least will put him in consideration to be drafted or earn a NBA roster spot."

    The reigning Defensive Player of the Year certainly looks like an NBA player now. He's become the blueprint for the modern-day power forward, showing off his switchability in a free-safety role on the defensive end while sparking the dominant Golden State Warriors offense with his shooting and distributing. 

    After serving as an integral part of two title-winning squads and a record-setting bunch that won 73 games in a single season, Green has gone from second-round pick to potential Hall of Famer. But because of his diminished scoring figures, he'll need plenty more high-quality seasons to overcome that low number in what's often viewed as the most important stat. 


    Prediction: He should get in, but only if he keeps playing at a high level. 

James Harden, PG/SG, Houston Rockets

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    Bill Baptist/Getty Images

    Age: 28

    Career Stats: 22.1 points, 5.0 rebounds, 5.7 assists, 1.5 steals, 0.4 blocks

    Career Accolades: Five-time All-Star, four-time All-NBA, All-Rookie, Sixth Man of the Year

    Current Hall of Fame Probability92.3 percent

    James Harden probably doesn't have a lengthy enough resume to make the Hall of Fame if he never played in another game. 

    Maybe that would be different if he'd won a title with the Oklahoma City Thunder rather than disappearing and lofting up far too many misses back in the 2012 NBA Finals. Maybe he'd be a lock if he'd won MVP over Russell Westbrook during the 2016-17 campaign. But he's just shy at the moment—a status that will likely change once he keeps playing at a high level throughout the upcoming season. 

    Still, don't hold us to that. 

    Harden already sits at 92.3 percent in Basketball-Reference.com's probability calculator, and it's not hard to see why. Despite his defensive shortcomings, he's been an unbelievable source of offensive production throughout his career. Whether thriving off the bench in OKC or leading the charge in Houston, he's blended together three-point shooting and a knack for earning whistles to basically redefine the entire concept of scoring efficiency. 

    The system put in place by Rockets general manager Daryl Morey is partly responsible for Harden's immense success. He wouldn't have played like a top-five player without it. But lest we forget, the reverse is also true. 

    Without Harden, that system would never work this well. 


    Prediction: He'll be a lock.

LeBron James, SF, Cleveland Cavaliers

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    Jason Miller/Getty Images

    Age: 32

    Career Stats: 27.1 points, 7.3 rebounds, 7.0 assists, 1.6 steals, 0.8 blocks

    Career Accolades: 13-time All-Star, scoring champion, three-time NBA champion, 13-time All-NBA, six-time All-Defensive, All-Rookie, three-time Finals MVP, four-time MVP, Rookie of the Year

    Current Hall of Fame Probability: 100 percent

    Can we just move on already? 

    The Hall of Fame has 382 inductees, and 182 of them are classified as players—as opposed to contributors, coaches, referees or teams. Meanwhile, LeBron James is unequivocally one of the five best players in NBA history. At this point, the only legitimate debate is about how he stacks up against Michael Jordan. 

    Of course he's going to make the Hall. 

    What's the weak part of his resume? Only winning three titles? If you're still holding the Finals losses against him when he's played against juggernauts and dragged remarkably weak supporting casts to the biggest stage, you're just looking for reasons to diminish his legacy. Go pick on someone who's consistently exited in the first round. 

    James could play out the rest of his career in a somnambulatory state and become a unanimous first-ballot selection. He could retire right now and fall into the same category. 

    So yeah, let's move on. 


    Prediction: Could retire now as a lock.

Kawhi Leonard, SF, San Antonio Spurs

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    Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images

    Age: 26

    Career Stats: 16.4 points, 6.2 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.8 steals, 0.7 blocks

    Career Accolades: Two-time All-Star, NBA champion, two-time All-NBA, four-time All-Defensive, All-Rookie, two-time Defensive Player of the Year, Finals MVP

    Current Hall of Fame Probability: Hasn't met the 400-game threshold

    Kawhi Leonard has spent only six seasons as a professional basketballer, but his resume is already unbelievable. 

    A two-time All-Star who managed to win a title and earn Finals MVP before he ever represented the Western Conference in the midseason classic, he's become one of the league's premier two-way studs. Ruling out his ability to become the NBA's best player—not two-way player, but player in general—would be foolish at this point, since he's continued to serve as a defensive stalwart while blossoming into a go-to volume scorer. 

    "Kawhi Leonard is, in my opinion, the best player in the league right now," San Antonio Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich said after the first round of last year's playoffs, per SB Nation's Kristian Winfield. "He's the best two-way player and does it all with such class. It's impressive."

    Popovich might be a biased source. But if he's wrong, it's not by much. 

    Oh, and the small forward with two Defensive Player of the Year trophies to his name is only 26 years old; he can still get better as he becomes even more comfortable scoring so frequently and filling so many different roles for the dynastic Spurs. 

    But even if he doesn't and instead plays out his career on a normal arc, he'll go on to earn a bust in a certain revered area. That much is already abundantly clear. 


    Prediction: He'll be a lock.

Kyle Lowry, PG, Toronto Raptors

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    Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images

    Age: 31

    Career Stats: 14.3 points, 4.1 rebounds, 5.8 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.3 blocks

    Career Accolades: Three-time All-Star, All-NBA

    Current Hall of Fame Probability: 9.6 percent

    This isn't a knock on Kyle Lowry's current level.

    That much should be obvious because he's listed among the rest of the 15 best players heading into the 2017-18 campaign, and he wasn't in much danger of being cut. He's still—by far—the best player on the Toronto Raptors and will ultimately determine both how high they rise during the regular season and how far they soar throughout the playoffs. In those portions of the 2016-17 go-round, the team's net rating fell by 8.6 and 8.9 points per 100 possessions, respectively, when he was off the floor. 

    But Lowry rose to prominence too late in his career, and point guards don't typically tend to play at an All-NBA level as they move deeper past their 30th birthdays. He'd need to spend almost all of his 30s playing in similar fashion to have a legitimate chance at the Hall of Fame, and that's not going to happen. 

    Unfortunately, the floor general's early years were filled with struggles. 

    Fresh out of Villanova, he failed to earn a substantial role for the Memphis Grizzlies and was subsequently traded to the Houston Rockets just 2.5 seasons into his professional career. He gradually improved before joining the Raptors via trade in 2012, but even then, it took him a few years to start playing like an All-Star.

    By the time he'd truly arrived as an elite 1, he was 27 years old with seven completed seasons under his belt. And that makes it next to impossible for him to reach that final frontier of superstardom. 


    Prediction: It's not going to happen.

Chris Paul, PG, Houston Rockets

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    Michael Gonzales/Getty Images

    Age: 32

    Career Stats: 18.7 points, 4.4 rebounds, 9.9 assists, 2.3 steals, 0.1 blocks

    Career Accolades: Nine-time All-Star, eight-time All-NBA, nine-time All-Defensive, All-Rookie, Rookie of the Year

    Current Hall of Fame Probability: 100 percent

    Forget about the lack of postseason success. 

    Whether you blame that on perennial misfortune or him shrinking on the bigger stage (based on the numbers, nothing could be further from the truth than that latter explanation), his inability to advance to the playoffs' penultimate round should be little more than a worn-down speed bump on his route to the Hall of Fame. 

    Chris Paul has a legitimate argument that he's the best point guard of all time—during the regular season, at least. His hard-nosed leadership style might rub some teammates the wrong way, but his ability to dominate defensively while shooting efficiently and putting up historic numbers still leads to one victory after another. We could spend hours glorifying Paul's statistics, then a few more talking about how watching him shows a player consistently in complete control of the proceedings on each end. 

    Maybe you think Paul has a serious shot to surpass Magic Johnson as the all-time great at his position. Perhaps you're more pessimistic about his historical standing and "only" view him as one of the 10 greatest at the point. Anything further down the leaderboard than that would be downright nonsensical. 

    Either way, he's getting into the Hall. 


    Prediction: Could retire now as a lock.

Karl-Anthony Towns, C, Minnesota Timberwolves

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    David Sherman/Getty Images

    Age: 21

    Career Stats: 21.7 points, 11.4 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 0.7 steals, 1.5 blocks

    Career Accolades: All-Rookie, Rookie of the Year

    Current Hall of Fame Probability: Hasn't met the 400-game threshold

    Bleacher Report's Dan Favale recently broke down the games of Anthony Davis and Karl-Anthony Towns to determine who's better now and will be throughout upcoming seasons. Here's part of his introduction: 

    "Davis and Towns both sit among the NBA's best under-25 building blocks. You can count the players you'd trade either for on one hand, and the New Orleans Pelicans and Minnesota Timberwolves, respectively, are beyond lucky to have them.

    "But transcendent cornerstones are not automatically on equal ground because of the coveted status they hold. One option is always better than the other, both immediately and down the road. Pitting Davis and Towns against each other is a one-percenter's errand, but the cachet both now ferry makes this a riveting and relevant debate all the same."

    Stop and think about that. 

    Towns is just 21 years old. He only has two seasons under his belt and has yet to make the playoffs with the 'Wolves. But it's already perfectly reasonable—and informative—to compare him and an established All-NBA player in Davis. That's the level he's reached despite struggling on the defensive end while still learning how to maximize his myriad talents at the sport's highest level. 

    Of course, that doesn't mean he's anywhere close to the Hall of Fame. 

    Betting on him to eventually earn induction might seem tempting, but let's not forget just how many players have gotten off to torrid starts (maybe not this torrid, to be fair), only to be thrown off pace by a series of unfortunate events. Though Lemony Snicket may not have penned any installments about a certain center in Minnesota, injuries and adjustments could strike at any time. 


    Prediction: On the right track, but a long way to go.

John Wall, PG, Washington Wizards

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    Ned Dishman/Getty Images

    Age: 27

    Career Stats: 18.8 points, 4.4 rebounds, 9.2 assists, 1.7 steals, 0.6 blocks

    Career Accolades: Four-time All-Star, All-NBA, All-Defensive, All-Rookie

    Current Hall of Fame Probability: 13 percent

    John Wall's numbers are astounding. 

    He's currently one of only five players in NBA history to average 18 points and nine assists for an entire career, joining Oscar Robertson, Magic Johnson, Isiah Thomas and Chris Paul. Three consecutive seasons have seen him drop double-digit dimes in his typical appearance, and he's coming off a vaunted 20/10 campaign for the Washington Wizards. 

    Plus, Wall throws in a handful of steals and blocks as he roams the defensive half-court set with a style that's far more disciplined than it initially appears. He just knows how to make the most of his speed and overwhelming athleticism in all situations. 

    But the lack of accolades are troubling. 

    Four All-Star appearances are fine, though they've been easier to accumulate in the weaker Eastern Conference. It's the lone All-NBA selection, one appearance on an MVP ballot (tied for seventh this past year) and inability to advance past the Eastern Conference Semifinals that's a bit troubling for a player who just turned 27 in early September. 

    Wall's resume won't be complete until he changes one of those elements. And he could do so, but the remarkable depth at the 1 isn't helping his case. Nor is LeBron James' continued presence in the East, since the Wizards still have to get past that juggernaut during the postseason. 

    Don't rule out a post-prime run from Wall to solidify his candidacy. But right now, it's a safer bet that he becomes one of the better players left on the outside looking in. 


    Prediction: Fighting an uphill battle.

Russell Westbrook, PG, Oklahoma City Thunder

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    Layne Murdoch/Getty Images

    Age: 28

    Career Stats: 22.7 points, 6.2 rebounds, 7.9 assists, 1.7 steals, 0.3 blocks

    Career Accolades: Six-time All-Star, two-time scoring champion, six-time All-NBA, All-Rookie, MVP

    Current Hall of Fame Probability95.7 percent

    Players still only 28 years old don't typically function as Hall of Fame shoo-ins, but Russell Westbrook is no ordinary point guard. 

    Not only does he have an MVP season and two scoring championships under his belt at this relatively early stage of his career, but he won that premier award while joining Oscar Robertson as one of just two players in NBA history to average a triple-double for an entire season. You might have heard something about that accomplishment before now. 

    That alone should earn Westbrook consideration, and the rest of his career is the icing on top. Springfield can't exclude a player making that type of noise. 

    But even from a purely statistical standpoint, this uber-athletic floor general is already in the right ballpark. Basketball-Reference.com's Hall of Fame probability lists him 11th among active players and 68th on the historical leaderboard, and another stat is even more promising. NBA Math's total points added (TPA) metric shows that Westbrook has accumulated more value in his career than all but 22 players since 1973-74, leaving him sandwiched directly between Paul Pierce and Reggie Miller.

    Even as he enters the 2017-18 season as the odds-on MVP favorite, per Odds Shark, he's already in prime position to earn the sport's ultimate honor.


    Prediction: Could retire now as a lock. 


    Adam Fromal covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @fromal09.

    Unless otherwise indicated, all stats from Basketball Reference, NBA.com, NBA Math or ESPN.com.