Screw 117 Wins, Rest of Dodgers' Season Is All About Clayton Kershaw

If they collect 34 more wins, the Los Angeles Dodgers will set a new mark for regular-season excellence.

A mighty feat, indeed. But also a fragile one that would come with an obligatory "Yeah, but..." if they again fail to win the World Series.

That quest, which has been ongoing since 1988 and has cost the Dodgers over $1 billion in just the last four seasons, hinges on the real storyline for the remainder of their season: The return and subsequent performance of Clayton Kershaw.

For the second time in as many years, the ace left-hander is on the disabled list with a back injury. It's not as bad as the disc herniation that sidelined him last year, however, and his recovery is going well. Having already thrown two bullpen sessions, he's ready for a simulated game and then a rehab assignment.

"I think we've been pretty cautious," Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said, according to Joshua Thornton of MLB.com. "Which is most important. … We're in a good place with Clayton. So hopefully this next marker we pass and we can assess going forward."

Kershaw could be back before September, but Roberts is right to indicate there's no hurry.

Ryan Kang/Associated Press

There would be a sense of urgency for Kershaw to hurry back if the Dodgers were fighting for their postseason lives, but they're too busy making other teams' seasons miserable.

With a record of 83-34, they've won games at a .709 clip that puts them on track for 115 wins. And even noting this much isn't doing them proper justice. Ever since super-rookie Cody Bellinger arrived April 25, the Dodgers have said "LOL" to losing and gone 74-23.

If they stay on that pace over their final 45 games, they'll fly at ludicrous speed past the 1906 Chicago Cubs' and 2001 Seattle Mariners' shared record of 116 wins.

Even Kershaw's absence isn't proving to be a deal-breaker. Including his injury-shortened start July 23, the Dodgers are 15-3 without him. Their deadline-day acquisition of fellow ace Yu Darvish has helped. So has continued hot hitting from Bellinger, who has eight homers during Kershaw's absence.

But in general, the Dodgers continue to win because they're a superteam unlike any other in Major League Baseball. It shows in their run differential, which puts even the Houston Astros to shame:

But while all this makes for a cool story now, the Dodgers' season could devolve into a horror story come October.

Grim tales of historic regular seasons giving way to tragic postseasons aren't plentiful, but the ones that do exist are known far and wide. The 1906 Cubs and 2001 Mariners both failed to win the World Series. The undefeated 2007 New England Patriots walked away without a Super Bowl. The 73-win Golden State Warriors of 2015-16 choked away an NBA Finals victory.

The sheer unpredictability of the MLB postseason makes it easy to imagine the 2017 Dodgers joining this not-so-prestigious club. In fact, their torrid regular-season pace doesn't shield them from being decidedly more likely to fail than they are to succeed.

At Baseball Prospectus, the Dodgers have a 25.1 percent chance of winning the World Series. At FanGraphs, they have a 19.6 percent chance. These are outstanding odds, relatively speaking, but they can also be translated to mean the Dodgers have a 75 to 80 percent chance of falling short.

Even a team this great needs to worry about maximizing its chances of winning it all. That's where Kershaw must come into play.

Alex Gallardo/Associated Press

The Dodgers bolstered a rotation that already had MLB's best ERA when they added Darvish, but the poorly kept secret about their starters is they don't work much. Before Darvish arrived, Kershaw was the only one averaging over six innings per start.

There is a method to this, as Roberts explained to Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register: "If we have an eight-man 'pen and guys are rested, to have a guy go five innings it could potentially save bullets for the back end."

Not a bad idea, given that the Dodgers bullpen ranks first in the National League in ERA. Yet an issue they've become all too familiar with still lingers: There's soft tissue underneath the ironclad Kenley Jansen.

Jansen has been characteristically untouchable. But unless top prospect Walker Buehler is the man for the job, the Dodgers don't have a guy who can be for Jansen what Andrew Miller was for Cody Allen on the Cleveland Indians last October. And ESPN's Buster Olney is correct in pointing out a lack of a shutdown lefty specialist who could silence heavies like Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy and Anthony Rizzo.

In short: This is a team that will need its ace much more in October than it currently needs him in the regular season.

The catch, of course, is that Kershaw himself must fit the bill for a change.

There's no doubting his regular-season track record. He's won three Cy Youngs, an MVP, four ERA titles and three strikeout titles. And although he began 2017 looking more human than normal, he reverted to his usual self with a 1.84 ERA in 14 starts preceding his injury. His overall 2.04 ERA leads MLB.

But October is undeniably Kershaw's nemesis. If his 4.55 ERA in 18 career postseason appearances is the injury, the insult is his being the losing pitcher in three of the Dodgers' last four exits from the postseason. 

Mind you, there have been bright spots here and there. But the dark spots are too big a stain on his legacy to be ignored. His critics aren't shy about pointing this out, and the man himself knows those are the breaks.

"I don't know how many starts I've had in the regular season, but hundreds, and you don't have that opportunity in the postseason," Kershaw said last October, per Andy McCullough of the Los Angeles Times. "So you've got to make it count. And the bad ones stand out more, for sure."

Although starters have ceded some of the spotlight to relievers in recent postseasons, Madison Bumgarner, Corey Kluber and Jon Lester can vouch that a hot ace can still make a huge difference in October. Kershaw has the goods to be that guy. The Dodgers just need him to finally become that guy.

If he can, slaying his own demons will go a long way toward helping the Dodgers slay theirs, and naysayers of both will have nothing left to say nay about.

If he can't, the large number the Dodgers will inevitably put in the win column could turn into a consolation prize of little comfort.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and ESPN. Payroll data courtesy of Cot's Baseball Contracts.