Realistic Expectations for Cleveland Cavaliers' 2017-18 Starting Lineup

Zach BuckleyAug 9, 2017

The 2017-18 Cleveland Cavaliers will either feature a core responsible for three straight NBA Finals berths or be without their second-best player.

Both possibilities are on the table thanks to the trade request voiced by Kyrie Irving, per ESPN's Brian Windhorst. Some may think a blockbuster deal is the inevitable end to this story, but Cleveland doesn't yet seem resigned to that fate.

"What Kyrie does is a perfect fit for us," a team source told Bleacher Report's Ric Bucher. "That's why we want to smooth this out if we can."

As far as the certainties are concerned, Cleveland will once again employ basketball cyborg and four-time MVP LeBron James. JR Smith, Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson are also around to take up their positions alongside him.

What does all of that mean for the Cavaliers—and the clubs attempting to break their stranglehold on the Eastern Conference? These realistic expectations and projections should help paint as clear a picture as one can of this still-murky situation.

Better Offense, Same Blueprint

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Ron Schwane/Associated Press

The 2013-14 Cavaliers—the last iteration sans LeBron—finished 23rd in offensive efficiency, a tick above the Al Jefferson-led Charlotte Bobcats. Over the three seasons since, the King has catapulted Cleveland to a pair of fourth-place finishes and last year's No. 3 ranking.

But this group hasn't exhausted its growth potential yet. In fact, it's reasonable to anticipate more improvement as this quintet grows even more familiar with one another.

After three straight Finals trips, the Cavs know where their bread is best buttered. In an era that celebrates ball movement, they only rank 26th in passes per game (280.7) and use a higher percentage of their offensive plays on isolations than any team in the league (11.9).

That's because no one scores at a higher clip out of isolations (0.99 points per possession). And no one else has two top-five isolation scorers like the Cavs do with Irving (third) and James (fifth).

"Playing iso ball has helped us get to this point," James told reporters in June, "and it gave us success in the last three years. We don't want to have a high steady diet of it because the defense becomes stagnant and our players become stagnant, but that's part of our package."

The James-Irving partnership produced a 117.5 offensive rating last season, the highest of its three-year existence. It could continue pushing that number north, so long as it isn't broken apart by a trade.

Cleveland also may have found the ideal third-wheel role for Love, whose 19.0 points per game were easily the most he's averaged in Northeast Ohio. Thompson thrived in complementary fashion last season—setting a career high with 60 percent shooting, matching another with 3.7 offensive boards per night—while Smith's shooting woes (career-worst 34.6 percent) gave him significant bounce-back potential.

Defensive Deficiencies Not Going Away

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Nick Wass/Associated Press

History said Cleveland's 22nd-ranked defense was a fatal flaw, at least as far as its championship hopes were concerned.

Cavs coach Tyronn Lue said not to worry; he had a secret plan in place to cover any and all weaknesses come playoff time.

Logic didn't respond with any actual words, opting instead for the thinking face emoji that conveyed the collective skepticism of the basketball world.

"That's a smoke screen, and I wouldn't say that. How could you encourage your players to hold back?" an Eastern Conference scout told Bleacher Report's Greg Swartz in April. "I would never say that, and I don't believe it from him. It's not like they're going to have a magic scheme when the playoffs start."

They didn't. Their defensive rating actually climbed in the second season from 108.0 to 108.3. During the Finals, they surrendered 121.6 points per game on 47.5 percent shooting.

And the problem could be worsening.

James and Smith, Cleveland's top starting wing defenders, will turn 33 and 32, respectively, this year. Irving's defense, which wasn't great to begin with, is trending in the wrong direction. After ranking 33rd among point guards in defensive real plus-minus in 2014-15 season, he has nosedived to 59th and 67th in the two years since, per ESPN.com. The Love-Thompson frontcourt lacks intimidation and impact at the rim.

If Irving Leaves, LeBron's Burden Increases

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Tony Dejak/Associated Press

All forward projections for Cleveland hinge on Irving's future. If nothing happens on his trade front, then nothing should significantly change. But if he's moved, the Cavs will almost surely lean more heavily on James.

The end of this saga is unknown, though several sources told ESPN.com's Zach Lowe that Cleveland has been acting "as if a trade is almost inevitable." But it should not be seen as a slam dunk, since it would be difficult to find LeBron a better-fitting running mate.

"James is basically a point guard in a power forward's body, and teammates playing alongside him need to be able to space the floor," Tim Bontemps of the Washington Post wrote. "In the rare moments when James is on the bench, they have to be able to create shots for themselves."

Irving is an elite shot-creator, and he has been a 40-plus percent three-point sniper in two of the last three seasons. That's why Cleveland keeps giving him a bigger share of the offense. Last season was the first in which he had a higher usage percentage (30.8) and more shots per game (19.7) than James (30.0 and 18.2).

Moving Irving out, then, would move James firmly back into the center of the spotlight, especially if Cleveland's return package is built around an up-and-comer (like Andrew Wiggins) and not an established commodity (like Kemba Walker).

James, who led the Association in minutes last season (37.8), could be saddled with usage and shooting numbers he hasn't shouldered since his move to Miami in 2010.

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Save for the Irving drama, it's been a pretty quiet offseason in Cleveland. But the Cavs reportedly heard the most important piece of information they could—regardless what happens around him, James will not waive his no-trade clause during the 2017-18 season, sources told ESPN.com's Chris Haynes.

What that means, in a nutshell, is Cleveland will retain its key to making annual Finals trips, as Rob Mahoney of Sports Illustrated observed:

"Cleveland, until we hear otherwise, remains the conference's gatekeeper. LeBron James' greatness is prohibitive, even without Irving. Boston is the closest thing the East has to realistic competition. ... [But] so many conditional elements would have to break in Boston's favor for LeBron to fall short of his eighth straight Finals, from the development of Jaylen Brown to the long-range accuracy of some of the Celtics' streakier shooters."

Even with the Boston Celtics' star power increasing, they're still stuck in LeBron's supernova shadow. And no other Eastern Conference challenger is even in the same galaxy.

Cleveland steamrolled through its side of the playoff bracket with a 12-1 record and a 1,518-1,341 scoring advantage. Both numbers could have been even better had the Cavs not eased off the gas pedal when Boston lost its lone All-Star, Isaiah Thomas, to a hip injury.

Another season with Irving could bring more of the same. A year without him might narrow the gap, although there's a chance Cleveland better balances its roster with needed perimeter defense and only a small scoring decline.

Either way, the Cavs should have the starting help and supporting cast around James to help him engineer yet another trek to the championship round.