Chicago Cubs: Final 2017 Trade Deadline Predictions, Fact or Fiction

The Chicago Cubs dived into the trade waters on July 12 to address their greatest need. All accounts indicate they're still swimming around the market to bolster their title defense.

They made a bold move when sending a package led by Eloy Jimenez and Dylan Cease to the Chicago White Sox for Jose Quintana, who has since compiled 19 strikeouts in two starts. Following the crosstown blockbuster, the Cubs' formerly stacked farm system no longer possessed any of Baseball America's top 100 prospects.

A depleted minor league supply hampers their quest for another major acquisition. Their needs are also less glaring after adding a premier cost-controlled starter to a veteran rotation.

Yet they remain associated with many of the market's marquee hurlers. A second-half surge has them leading the Milwaukee Brewers by half a game in the NL Central, so they're hungry to repeat after a century-long drought.

What do they need after securing their top target? Who's left to trade? And what rumors amount to more than pre-deadline noise? Let's break down the Cubs' week ahead.

Team Needs

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Catcher Alex Avila is frequently linked to the Cubs as a deadline target.

Catcher

Ever since designating backup catcher Miguel Montero for assignment earlier in July, the Cubs have needed a replacement to ease Willson Contreras' workload. Collecting three hits in nine games, rookie Victor Caratini isn't ready for the role.

"We have a lot of hooks in the water right now," general manager Jed Hoyer said of his catcher pursuit on Tuesday, per CSN Chicago's Patrick Mooney. "But whether or not something happens soon, I'm not sure."

With Contreras flourishing, a veteran reserve will do the trick. According to the New York Post's Mike Puma, they're interested in Rene Rivera, a journeyman reserve who has stayed in the majors because of his defense. Both ESPN.com's Buster Olney and Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times speculated A.J. Ellis as an ideal fit. 

Neither is as flashy as Alex Avila, who is enjoying demonstrative offensive success during a contract year. Rivera or Ellis would aptly fill the void, but the Detroit Tigers catcher would also provide a major bat off the bench.

Wittenmyer said the Cubs are not considering Jonathan Lucroy since they don't think he'd be content backing up Contreras.

Starting Pitching

With Quintana on board and Kyle Hendricks back on the mound, John Lackey is the Cubs' fifth starter. Despite beaning four White Sox batters on Tuesday, the veteran has allowed six runs in three July starts. 

Jon Lester has bounced back from July 9's 10-run shellacking against the Pittsburgh Pirates, and Jake Arrieta has amassed a 2.25 in July. The Cubs don't necessarily need another starter, but that hasn't stopped the hot stove from frequently connecting them to Sonny Gray and Justin Verlander.

Much chatter also centers around Yu Darvish, but the Cubs are one of 10 teams included on his no-trade list, as reported Wednesday by Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal.

Although Gray could lead an ageing rotation alongside Quintana beyond 2017, the Cubs have no more blue-chip prospects to give the Oakland Athletics. Renting Darvish would not have made sense with Arrieta also set to hit free agency this winter, so Verlander is the most plausible choice if they're willing to absorb most of his $56 million contract over the next two seasons.

Left-Handed Reliever

Selling the farm for Aroldis Chapman helped crown the Cubs champions last year. They'd be foolish to make another grand-scale bullpen acquisition to a group already featuring Hector Rondon, Koji Uehara, Pedro Strop, Carl Edwards Jr. and Wade Davis.

Yet they're light on left-handed relievers. Their lone southpaw, Brian Duensing, has relinquished an .819 OPS to same-handed hitters.

Some high-profile options are potentially available in Brad Hand, Justin Wilson and Zach Britton. Since the market is otherwise flooded with right-handed relievers, they could instead trust Mike Montgomery to transition back into a bullpen role with Quintana and Hendricks blocking him from the rotation.

Top Trade Chips

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Jeimer Candelario is the best prospect remaining in Chicago's farm system.

OF Kyle Schwarber

The Cubs would need to dip into their major league reservoir in order to engineer another blockbuster.

Javier Baez and Ian Happ are too vital to their current and future plans, so Kyle Schwarber stands out as the most feasible sacrifice. Following 2015's breakout arrival and last year's fabled World Series return, the slugger is hitting .183 in 78 games.

He should still hold considerable trade value, however. The 24-year-old has also belted 15 home runs with a 13.7 walk percentage. His contact rate and swinging-strike percentages have improved from 2015, when he batted .246/.355/.487.

Schwarber would fit perfectly on an American League club who can hide his glove as a designated hitter. Then again, the A's aren't moving Gray for a DH.

1B/3B Jeimer Candelario

Their best prospect remaining, corner infielder Jeimer Candelario has no place on Chicago's roster. That won't change anytime soon, with Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant manning first and third, respectively. 

The 23-year-old has hit 19 home runs in 153 Triple-A games from this season and last but has notched just five hits in 50 career big league plate appearances. MLB.com's No. 92 prospect needs an extended opportunity before getting branded with the dreaded Quad-A label. Barring bad health, that won't happen in the Windy City.

He's a light trade anchor in a package for Gray but too pricey to move for a catcher. Perhaps he's leveraged to acquire Verlander and/or Wilson.

RHP Thomas Hatch

The Cubs reloaded their system in June by drafting 10 pitchers within the first dozen rounds. With Alex Lange and Brendon Little among their top prospects, they could shop last year's highest selection for the right price.

Thomas Hatch, who sprained his ulnar collateral ligament in 2015, fell to the third round of 2016's amateur draft. After resting last summer, he has submitted 96 strikeouts over 90 High-A frames.

The 22-year-old righty overpowers opponents with three potent pitches while also inducing plenty of ground balls. While the Cubs wouldn't easily part with Hatch, he could help upgrade their bullpen—or get used in a Verlander exchange—for another October run.

The Dream Scenario

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The Cubs could resolve two areas of interest by acquiring Verlander and Avila.

All roads lead to Detroit, as the Tigers possess players fitting all of the Cubs' needs.

Avila is the lavish solution to their backup-catcher vacancy. If they're willing to cover his massive salary, Verlander is a potential postseason difference-maker who would replace Arrieta next year. Wilson gives them the trustworthy southpaw they crave.

The true dream scenario is sending fringe prospects to Oakland for Gray, but that isn't happening. Team president Theo Epstein would probably have to part with Baez or Happ—or Schwarber in a heavy package—to land the 27-year-old starter.

Closing the book on that fairytale, their best bet is reaching an accord with the Tigers. Per Fox Sports' Jon Morosi, both teams are talking, primarily about Verlander and Avila.

Footing the bill on Verlander could save Epstein from further gutting his farm system. Pairing Wilson with the ace, however, is Detroit's best bet of unloading Verlander's salary and receiving worthwhile prospects in the process.

The 34-year-old starter has yielded eight runs in his past four starts, and getting inserted into a National League pennant race could revitalize a righty who recorded 254 strikeouts last season. Verlander and Wilson and/or Avila are the Cubs' best bet of booming their title chances without ransacking what's left of their farm.

Fact or Fiction on Latest Rumors

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The Cubs reportedly see breakout potential in New York Mets starting pitcher Seth Lugo.

Alex Avila a Perfect Fit but Not a Strong Fit

Like many other onlookers, USA Today's Bob Nightengale described Avila and the Cubs as the "perfect fit." He also indicated that the reigning champions agree, as "no team has expressed stronger interest."

Wittenmyer spun a different tale, writing that the Tigers catcher "is not considered a strong fit."

Tied with Salvador Perez for first in WAR among American League backstops, Avila is overqualified for the job of Contreras' understudy. Yet no contender is clamoring for a starter behind the plate, especially one who is subpar defensively.

He's not the best fit if a breakout campaign elevates his price. Rivera or Ellis shouldn't cost much, and either would replace the retired David Ross as an experienced clubhouse mentor. 

But if nobody else wants to rent Avila, Detroit might as well sell him to the highest bidder. At the right cost, he's a fine fit. If not, the Cubs shouldn't lose any sleep over instead adding a defense-first reserve.

Verdict: Both sides are partially fact and partially fiction.

Longing for Seth Lugo

Once the Cubs landed Quintana, Gray has dominated the discussion of available cost-controlled starters. Morosi reported Chicago was still in on Oakland's ace, but it appears Epstein is also looking beyond the prominent names for a long-term option.

According to ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick, the Cubs asked about New York Mets righty Seth Lugo. The 27-year-old has tallied a 3.32 ERA in 116.1 career innings, but most of that success occurred last season.

Crasnick said the Cubs are enamored by his high spin rate but added that the Mets have little inclination to move one of their few healthy hurlers. 

Epstein may have had a better shot at Lugo last winter, when he and Robert Gsellman were considered the squad's sixth and seventh starters. Jacob deGrom and Steven Matz—who missed the first two months—are the only two of the top five not on the disabled list.

The Mets have their hands full shopping multiple veterans on expiring contracts, so don't expect them to seriously entertain offers for Lugo before Monday's non-waiver trade deadline. 

Verdict: Fiction

Cubs Interested in Justin Verlander, Hesitant to Pay Salary

How serious are the Cubs about acquiring Verlander? Morosi and Nightengale both tweeted that Chicago is interested in the Tigers ace but that his contract has complicated discussions.

While the Cubs haven't handed out blank checks en route to contention, they have showed an enhanced willingness to spend once their young core led them back to relevancy. Jon Lester and Jason Heyward were particularly daring signings that quickly ended their frugal ways.

If they can stomach Verlander's salary this summer, Arrieta and Lackey's combined $31.6 million comes off the books this winter. That's assuming they trust the costly acquisition to regain his ace form in a new environment. Otherwise, they're spending a premium for a pitcher past his prime.

The Cubs seem more likely than any other contender to take the plunge on Verlander, who can block any deal with his full no-trade clause. Yet it still seems likely that they and/or the Tigers get cold feet and pause negotiations until the winter.

Verdict: Fact

Final Deadline Predictions

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The Cubs probably won't snag Verlander, but Justin Wilson may be more instrumental to their postseason success.

The Tigers won't want to move Verlander for a small return. The Cubs won't surrender much unless they defer some of the cost. Either way, at least one side will likely walk away from negotiations.

They could reconnect, however, to discuss Wilson and/or Avila. 

Wilson wouldn't come cheap, but Hand and Britton would require significantly larger hauls. Add the lefty to an already deep bullpen, and manager Joe Maddon will have plenty of choices during the pennant chase.

Unless the market percolates or general manager Al Avila doesn't want to make the holidays awkward by trading his son, Avila appears to be a luxury the Cubs could afford. With that, they acquire Wilson and Avila with Hatch—or a minor league pitcher of similar value—heading the return.

Since Epstein doesn't have the pieces to attain Gray, the rotation won't receive any more makeovers. The five-man unit of Arrieta, Lester, Quintana, Hendricks and Lackey is fine as is anyway.

The Cubs felt they needed to make a major move to fend off Milwaukee in the NL Central and challenge the Los Angeles Dodgers and Washington Nationals in October. They got their man in Quintana. Any other acquisitions would be icing on the cake.