Can Saunders "Flip" The Successes Of The Wizards In 2009/10?

Record: 19-63, 5th Southeast Division, 15th seed Easter Conference.

These are worth repeating, 19-63 overall, last in the Southeast Division, LAST in the Eastern conference. A bit harsh, yes but for a former top five, title contending team in the East and making the playoffs the previous four years, the brashness is warranted. Make no doubt about it; last season is still etched in the back of the minds of the entire Washington Wizards organisation. Not only as the thorn in the side of owner Abe Pollin and President Ernie Grunfeld but really as a prime motivator to completely turn upside down. A 63-19 record would be absolutely glorious, but let’s not get carried away. Last season will be the spark under the Wizards that will give the fans something to cheer about again and get the monkey off their backs.

Gilbert Arenas is back and so is his supporting cast, that includes Caron “Tough Juice” Butler, Mr. Dependable—Antawn Jamison, Abraham Lincoln?—DeShawn Stevenson and Tall, Dark and Carolinian—Brendan Haywood. Along with Gil and crew, the additions of Mike Miller, Randy Foye, Fabricio Oberto and the development of JaVale McGee, Nick Young and Adray Blatche, this team should be a playoff calibre team in 2009/10. But what would it take for the Wizards to be in the cream of the Eastern Conference crop once again? Let’s see…

5. Defensively, how good can and should this Wizards team be under Flip Saunders?

Flip Saunders isn’t necessary a defensive stalwart like Greg Popovich or Avery Johnson, Scott Skiles or even Terry Porter (who most recently got fired for trying to change a team’s philosophy) were but he is not one to ignore it either, like say, Mike D’Antoni. 

In their most successful year in recent history (2004/5), the 5th seeded Washington Wizards, posted a 45-37 regular season record and were swept in the Conference Semis by the Miami Heat. That year they were ranked ninth in the league in rebounds a game (RPG) with 43, third in steals per game (SPG) with 8.7 but were twentieth in blocks per game (BPG), with Mr. Tarheel—Brendan Haywood, Etan Thomas and Kwame Brown all accounting for a 4.2 average. Apart from the swats, the team’s rebounding and steals figures were their lifeline to balancing their offensive production and thus the team’s efficiency.

Last season on the other hand, the Wizards dropped to 22nd in the league in RPG, maintained a healthy 7.5 in SPG (good enough for 8th in the league) and hovered around 4.5 BPG. So far this preseason however, the Wizards have shown shades of the old playoff Wizards by bettering their rebounding to 44.25 per game for 7th in the league, completely improved their blocks to rank 15th with still a mediocre 4.5 per but dramatically reduced their thefts by averaging 7.25 SPG, good for 23rd in the league.

This preseason’s numbers may indicate that Flip Saunders intends to play a safer and less gamble-oriented style defence concentrated on guarding the basket, which may be the cause of the decrease in steals but increase in rebounds and blocks. As a benchmark, Flip’s 2003/4 Timberwolves, who reached the Western Conference Finals and featured the MVP Kevin Garnett, had a similar style of play where they were ranked 8th in RPG, 7th in BPG but 26th in SPG. Flip probably doesn’t play much poker either as he’s showing a defensive strategy that doesn’t advocate much gambling in passing lanes and reaching-in with man-to-man defences.

Overall, I believe the Wizards will sustain this type of defence already being exhibited in this preseason, and with a supposedly healthy Brendan Haywood, the services of a veteran Oberto, the development of McGee and Blatche and the occasional rebound from Miller, expect an excellent rebounding team but one a bit deficient in steals, which can have an effect on fast break opportunities.

4. Offence or Defence? That is the Question.

I’ve already sketched their defensive capabilities, so we have an understanding of the character that will take the stage for these Wizards. Offensively, one can only hope the Wizards do remarkably better than the effort shown last year. In their defence however, with all the coaching changes, injuries and instability that meddled with playing time and chemistry, the team does have a supportable alibi.

Again with reference to 2004/5, where they posted their best season in recent years, the Wizards were 6th in points per game (PPG) with 100.5, 10th in three-pointers made (but a dismal 34.3 percent; Hibachi!), 2nd in free-throws made and 1st in attempts but most importantly, Gilbert Arenas averaging 25.5 PPG. Also, the “Big 3” which consisted of Arenas, Jamison and Larry Hughes posted 67.2 PPG or 67 percent of the team’s points for that season (Caron Butler still playing with Lakers).

Should I mention last year’s numbers? I rather save the time and shame, but being ranked 25th in PPG (96.1), 29th in three-point makes and an efficiency score of 33 percent and dropping to 20th in free-throws attempted did not help their campaign whatsoever.

This preseason, again the Wizards has shown bits of the team of old, ranking 11th in PPG (102.5) and have a commendable 45.8 percent field-goal efficiency (9th in league). The “Big 3” has posted nearly 48 PPG and the team has a 2-2 record, so far. However, one can see the marked improvement and with the regular season and a playoff spot on the horizon, expect the 20-plus point average for, Gilbert, Antawn and Caron and a team ready to make some noise.

Offence will not overshadow defence this year, with Arenas also wanting to be more team oriented this season, hence his facilitating persona so far (13.8 PPG and 7.8 APG). Certainly this team will not be short of scorers when needed with Miller roaming the perimeter alongside Arenas, an explosive Nick Young and the rest of the familiar scoring culprits, we know they can score with the best in the league. Flip Saunders though will ensure they remain disciplined on defence, so expect a balanced attack of offence and defence with the occasional three ball being put up.

3. Are the Wizards “Big 4” ready to make this team contend again?

You betcha! This team will be playing with a chip on its shoulder and an agenda to prove that they still belong in any title-contending conversation. Whilst the league environment has changed since they were lasted ousted in the playoffs by the Cavaliers, loads of teams have undergone championship-style facelifts. The Wizards and their current make-up I believe are going to run the first of their last two years together before this team is blown up and in rebuilding mode once again. This year will solely be about redemption and proving that they belong in the playoffs and will act as a foundation for the following year’s slim title hopes and the aim of making a Finals appearance. So please Atlanta, Philadelphia and Detroit do take heed, a magic wand may be swung and you just might be turned into toads or rodents. For the record, the “Big 4” is Arenas, Butler, Jamison and the addition of three-thirds- Haywood, Miller and Stevenson.

2. Will we see another Cavaliers versus Wizards playoff series?

Just as David Stern, Wizards fans and the world would love to see these two battle again, I would definitely love to see one more fresh episode to this drama that unfolded between 2005 and 2008. Arguably, that wish might just be granted if you really consider the skill of the Eastern Conference. The question that keeps circulating is “Can the Wizards become a top four team in the East once again?” and the answer to that is no. After the Cavaliers, Celtics and Magic, I find it extremely difficult for Washington to leapfrog an amazing Hawks team, energetic 76ers (who are now coached by their former coach Eddie Jordan) and an almost similar Miami Heat team, who all have had some sort of continuity and flow from last year. One would only expect these teams to improve. Also with the Pistons, Bulls and Bobcats showing to be some intensely pesky competitors, the Wizards do have some proving to do before they can be considered top four or five once again.

If the Wizards do make the playoffs (which in itself is determined by team health), they will enter as either the 7th or 8th seed, which sets them up perfectly for a date with the Cavaliers who will very well likely be the 1st or 2nd seed. Some more DeShawn and Brendan banter is most definitely in the making and the excitement will pick up exactly where it left off in 2008, at fever-pitch.

 1.     Predicted team record?

41-41, fourth in Southeast Division, 7th seed in the Easter Conference (defeated by 2nd seed Cleveland Cavaliers in the 1st round 4-2)

So the conspiracy continues. Five playoff appearances in the last six years (2009/10 inclusive), and out of those five appearances, the Cavaliers have eliminated the Wizards a nerve-racking four times. I had to do it, I couldn’t resist!

The Wizards are a Chris Bosh or Amar’e Stoudamire away from reclaiming contending status again in the league, and the summer of 2010 will be the avenue for them to pull off some sort of block-buster trade/signing. As noticed however, in the 2010 talks, Washington is not amongst the teams with the biggest bite as their current contracts take a sizable amount of flexibility with cap room. Maybe they could look forward to David Lee after Foye, Miller and Oberto’s contracts are taken off the books after this season and look forward to some championship signings. For now 2009/10 is the season that gets their feet wet again and gives them the old swagger they’ve lost.

Foot-Note: The biggest talk for the summer in the Washington locker-room is Miller's switch from Adidas to Nike. Big deal? Not exactly. The real deal is not just the switch to Nike but to the signature line of LeBron James. DeShawn Stevenson was quoted saying “We don’t wear these round here” to the team’s newcomer. Sign of disgust or a joke, no one knows. As the preseason has gone on Miller has played in the Nike LeBron Soldier three’s possibly to the displeasure of Stevenson, who most definitely still has a bitter taste in his mouth from all the yapping which got rudely silenced the last three playoff appearances, by LeBron and co. It is my hope Miller, firstly stays with Nike and maybe even get some LeBron seven’s. I am sad to see his Adidas player exclusives go though.

Caron Butler, Randy Foye and Nick Young will bring the steady flow of Nike exclusives. Caron has been seen with some amazing Blue Chip PE’s, Randy Foye in some Zoom Hustles and hopefully Nick Young will bring some retro heat as last year he brought his A-game with some Penny two and three’s , Zoom Flight fives’s etc. So far he’s been down with some Nike ID Kobe four’s, so he just may continue on with the five’s, or to my liking get back to the retro game.

Arenas and Jamison will be doing their best to represent the Adidas “Brotherhood” with Arenas set to wear some PE Cut Creator lows and Butler in the sturdy Bounce Commander LT.

This is one of the teams in the league whose players feet will be definitely scrutinized as they are known to come hard with exclusive heat. (Stay tuned to Niketalk’s NBA Feet ’09-'10 at www.niketalk.yuku.com/topic/207691)