Giants Re-up Sabean, Bochy

Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News reports that the Giants re-signed both GM Brian Sabean and field manager Bruce Bochy to two year contracts with an option for 2012.

The comments to the attached article pretty much sum up my feelings: “Mixed emotions!” — certainly: the Giants did have a fine 2009, but I don’t have great confidence in either Sabean or Bochy.

“[A]nother two years of barely good enough.  Sabean has 2 more years of overpaying vets that had career years.”  Can’t argue with that, that’s Sabean to a tee.

“Next up: sign Randy Winn for two more years + an option!”  Well, that’s hyperbole, but sometimes satire is the most effective way to make the same point as the previous comment.

“In a related development, champagne glasses are clinking in Denver and L.A.”  That’s cold, but it made me laugh.

“Could have done worse, at least it is only 2 years.”  Ah, the glass is half full!

It’s interesting to note that the posted comments appear to be about 80-20 against the re-signings.  I guess I’m not the only one who has doubts about Sabean and Bochy.

The comments also talk about the Giants chasing Jason Bay this off-season.  I don’t know if the Giants have the money to make that move, and in order to win the Jason Bay sweepstakes, the Gints would have to way overpay.

I read this post on ussmariner.com yesterday suggesting that whoever gives Bay the big contract will be making a huge mistake.  The writer, Dave Cameron, compares Bay to Richie Sexson, who was actually younger than Bay when he signed his big free agent deal with the Mariners a few years back.  Sexson had two good years and then went right down the toilet.

I’m not sure that the comparison is apt.  While Bay’s age is certainly a concern, and I expect that anyone signing him to a five year contract will get burned the last year or two of the contract, there are a couple of notable differences between Bay and Sexson.  First, at age 30 this year, Bay still runs well.  He stole 13 bases in 16 attempts this year, and now has 66 career stolen bases in 80 attempts, an 82.5% success rate.  Sexson, on the other hand, never ran particularly well.

Bay is a poor defensive outfielder, at least according to UZR/150.  However, being fast doesn’t necessarily mean a player will be a good outfielder.  Lou Brock is a great example of a guy who was never better than an  average leftfielder, despite his great speed, because he just wasn’t good at getting a jump or judging flyballs.

Also, Bay’s body type is a lot better than Sexson’s.  By the time he signed his free agent deal with the Mariners, Sexson was listed as 6′7″ or 6′8″ and 240 lbs.  Guys like that tend to break down soon after they turn 30.  Bay, on the other hand, is currently listed as 6′2″ and 205 lbs.  That’s more the kind of measurements of a player who continues to play well  into his mid-30’s.

I’m not saying that I expect Bay to play well when he’s 35 or 36, but I am saying that I don’t think that Richie Sexson is necessarily the best comparison to what Bay will do in the future.  If the Giants were to sign Bay, it would certainly give them a much better shot of making the post-season in 2010 and 2011.