Top Factors That Could Sink Washington Redskins This Season

The list of top factors with the potential to wreck the Washington Redskins' 2017 NFL season has more than a tinge of familiarity to it. In fact, anyone who has followed the team during the last five years can be forgiven for rolling their eyes at the mention of some of the usual suspects.

Washington's most familiar foibles include questionable talent at the safety spots, as well as dubious potential in the running game. Add in the checkered injury history of the Burgundy and Gold's most talented playmaker in the passing game, and it's obvious how easily this team's season could be derailed.

In many ways, though, these are three things the Redskins either couldn't fix or chose not to this offseason. There are also risks at the positions Washington did address.

For instance, what happens if a new-look group of wide receivers isn't up to scratch? A quarterback playing a second year under the franchise tag not maintaining his Pro-Bowl standards from a year ago is just one of the worrying implications.

Read on for a full list of the top factors capable of sinking Washington's playoff hopes this season.

Jonathan Allen's Shoulders

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Landing a top-five caliber talent with the 17th pick in this year's draft was more than a steal for the Redskins. It was manna from heaven when the player in question was Jonathan Allen, a rookie who could instantly transform Washington's defensive line from a feeble unit into a team strength.

However, Allen's ability to make the level of impact expected could depend on the state of his shoulders. Those same shoulders were cause for concern for many prior to draft day.

The worry was rooted in Allen's history of undergoing surgery during his days at Alabama. NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reported in March how the versatile trench warrior underwent procedures to fix labral tears in both shoulders while in Mobile. Traces of arthritis at the top of each arm only increased the concerns about Allen, according to the same report.

Rapoport received assurances from Alabama team doctor Lyle Cain that Allen's shoulders aren't an issue, an assertion prompting sufficient confidence from the Redskins to select him in Round 1.

Even so, the most optimistic fan in Washington must still have a lingering worry about the 22-year-old holding up in the pros. The worry is compounded when considered alongside how much Allen is being counted on to fortify this defense up front.

The Redskins signed Terrell McClain and Stacy McGee in free agency, but make no mistake, Allen is the newcomer expected to strike fear into opposing offensive linemen. He will only do it if he delivers game-wrecking contributions on a regular basis.

McGee and McClain are veterans who can be replaced without too much fuss if things don't work out. Washington has experienced a pattern of admitting mistakes when it comes to free-agent D-linemen in recent years; think Terrance Knighton and Stephen Paea.

Yet, it will be a different story if Allen can't make the grade. Giving up on a first-round bust is usually a longer process, one many teams struggle with; think Robert Griffin III.

Hopefully, it won't come to that for Allen in Washington. Instead, the words of his college coach Nick Saban will prove true, per ESPN's John Keim: "(The Redskins) got a steal because if everyone isn't afraid of his shoulder, which was never a problem here, he would have been picked in the top five."

If Allen is a force from day one, the Redskins will have the kind of dominant defensive front needed to spark a return to the postseason. If not, an all too familiar inability to stop the run and generate consistent pressure will again be this team's undoing.

Jordan Reed's Injury Bug

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Jordan Reed isn't quite as prone to injury as it may appear, even though he has yet to complete a 16-game season in four years as a pro.

In fact, Reed has never made more than eight starts in a season, despite recording double-digit appearances in each of his last three campaigns, per the league's official website.

He may not be as brittle as you think, but there is no doubt how much the Redskins suffer when their best pass-catcher is on the shelf. To put the issue into perspective, writers from Sports Illustrated, including Emily Kaplan, detailed the fall in production without No. 86:

"In past seasons Washington's offense has imploded with Jordan Reed out of the lineup, as was the case in 2015—the Redskins averaged 369 yards in 14 games with Reed, 247.5 in two games without him. That drop-off wasn't as painful last season, but even so, Kirk Cousins is now just 2–7 as a starter sans his top tight end."

On the surface at least, the Redskins should be better equipped to weather an injury to Reed this season. After all, Vernon Davis remains on the roster and is still one of the NFL's better tight ends, even at 33. Then there is the presence of Niles Paul and Derek Carrier, as well as 2017 fifth-round pick Jeremy Sprinkle.

Yet none of those players brings the level of flexibility and dynamism Reed adds to this offense. He can line up anywhere to thwart any type of covering defender thanks to his mix of wide receiver-type speed, tight end-style frame and superior route-running skills.

It's no wonder Reed merits the type of lofty praise he received from The MMQB's Andy Benoit and Gary Gramling on an edition of their 10 Things podcast in late May (h/t CSN Mid-Atlantic's Peter Hailey).

Benoit said of Reed: "If healthy, he's the best receiving tight end in the NFL." There's that caveat about health again.

Meanwhile, Gramling felt compelled to liken Reed to an all-time great at the position: "Reed reminds me of a young Antonio Gates. I remember back in the day when Champ Bailey would try and cover Antonio Gates, and Gates would shake him. That's kind of what Jordan Reed is now."

It's lofty praise, but Reed is gifted enough to merit it, provided he stays on the field. If he can, there is the potential for a 1,000-yard season, no longer such a rarity for tight ends.

The changes at wide receiver mean quarterback Kirk Cousins is likely to look Reed's way even more than usual in 2017. Yet if injuries rob Cousins of his go-to receiver, it will be a long year in Washington.

Ongoing Question Marks at Safety

Manuel Balce Ceneta/Associated Press

At this point, it would be a major shock if the Redskins entered a season without troubling question marks about their options at safety. As things stand, there are way more questions than answers about 2017's depth chart.

The most likely projected starters are Su'a Cravens and D.J. Swearinger. No surprise, questions abound regarding both.

For free-agent arrival Swearinger, the main question is can a 25-year-old who has played on three teams in four years finally find a home in the NFL? The answer will depend on his ability to play free safety in Washington.

He operated in the spot for the Arizona Cardinals last season, showing promise in more than a few games. However, Swearinger's aggression and downhill style have often seemed better suited to a fit as a strong safety with the license to play in the box. Instead, the veteran must prove he has the range to cover the deep middle for Redskins defensive coordinator Greg Manusky.

There is an even greater burden of proof facing Cravens. He was a second-round pick a year ago, but he failed to flourish as a hybrid, sub-package box defender, hence a switch to full-time safety for his second season.

It's going to be a tough transition, as ESPN's John Keim noted recently: "But for the secondary to click, the safeties and corners must be in unison. Considering that Cravens is playing this spot for the first time in the NFL, it will take time."

Frankly, time is short for Cravens since the Redskins need him to get it and get it quickly. The alternatives are scary if he can't.

Those alternatives include moving Swearinger to strong safety and turning to one of converted cornerbacks Will Blackmon or DeAngelo Hall to play free. The problem is that the latter has missed 31 games and not intercepted a single pass in three years, while the former may be better as a nickel cornerback.

Experience is wafer-thin beyond this pair, with Deshazor Everett yet to make a start, while Montae Nicholson and Josh Harvey-Clemons are rookies.

The Redskins have gambled a lot on Swearinger and Cravens being up to scratch enough to form a solid partnership on the back end. Manusky's defense will be fatally flawed if they don't.

Lack of Progress from the Running Game

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Balance is the key to every successful offense, so it says a lot that Washington's unit has still remained potent without it in recent seasons. The Redskins ranked 21st running the football in 2016 and 20th the year before, numbers that must improve this season.

Whether they will improve is another matter altogether. Much will depend on any progress made by Rob Kelley, the player who took the starting job from Matt Jones as an undrafted rookie in 2016.

Kelley's final numbers were solid, if far from spectacular, but he still proved his value to the offense.

His value is endorsed by these numbers from Sports Illustrated's Jacob Feldman: "After Washington's Week 9 bye, the Skins were 4–1 when Kelley averaged 3.5 yards and 0–3 when he didn't. It's generally accepted that Kirk Cousins needs weapons around him, and a consistent backfield-mate is critical as he adjusts to an altered crop of wideouts."

Those numbers not only indicate Kelley's worth, they also underline the difference even a modestly credible running game can make to a quarterback. The Redskins will be in trouble if Kelley can't provide at least the same this season.

It won't be easy, though, considering the former Tulane man will no longer be taking pro defenses by surprise. No doubt this thinking contributed to Washington's decision to draft Samaje Perine in the fourth round.

Yet while Perine has true workhorse potential, he was also only a complementary piece to Joe Mixon at Oklahoma. If Perine can't be more than a supporting act, the pressure will increase on Kelley and third-down specialist Chris Thompson to carry the load, particularly with Jones seemingly out of the picture.

The Redskins have risked a lot by largely standing pat regarding their options on the ground. It would be easy to feel a lot better about this rotation had team president Bruce Allen added a dependable veteran presence to it.

If this group falters, a one-dimensional offense will struggle to carry the team past .500.

New Wide Receivers Unable to Pick Up the Slack

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It's impossible to downplay what is being asked of Washington's new-look wide receiver corps in 2017. The unfamiliar group is expected to maintain the passing game as the strength of this team by replacing two of the league's best players at their position in Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson.

Succeeding will mean at least matching the production DJax and Garcon managed. Since they each topped 1,000 yards in 2016, it gives you some idea of the scale of the challenge facing Terrelle Pryor, Josh Doctson and Brian Quick.

They are the most notable newcomers to a group where Jamison Crowder is the lone quality holdover from last season. Technically, Doctson is not a newcomer since he was Washington's top pick in 2016's draft. However, appearing in only two games as a rookie means you still merit newbie status.

It's Doctson and Pryor who are under the most pressure to replace Garcon and Jackson. Anything will be a bonus from Quick, who was nothing more than moderately productive during five seasons with the St. Louis and Los Angeles Rams.

Similarly, rookie Robert Davis and little-used pair Maurice Harris and Ryan Grant would be surprise contributors at best if they figure in the offense this season. Ultimately, the burden falls on Doctson and Pryor to be the big-play specialists Garcon and Jackson were.

Doctson will have to see the field more to do his bit, after an Achilles problem all but wiped out his rookie year. It means the Redskins are still at square one with a receiver who boasts the size and speed to be the outside burner Jackson so often was.

If Doctson is the player former general manager Scot McCloughan thought he was when he drafted him 22nd overall, Washington's passing game will be just fine. However, if the former TCU product earns the bust label, the Redskins will soon be the reluctant owners of a small-ball offense, one lacking the deep threat to keep defenses honest.

Size and speed are also high on the list of Pryor's best attributes. Sadly, experience is not, since the 6'4", 223-pounder has only played one NFL season as a wideout.

At least Pryor's lone audition as a receiver was a good one, though. He went over 1,000 yards last season, despite being the go-to guy on a 1-15 Cleveland Browns team where seven quarterbacks threw him passes.

Pryor was a surprise package a year ago, but now every defense knows about him. The onus is on the 27-year-old to prove his game is nuanced enough to outwit cornerbacks who know all about his core moves and strengths.

Pryor will at least benefit from fine coaching in Washington, with wide receivers coach Ike Hilliard one of the league's best receiving gurus. Yet if he can't support Crowder with triple-digit numbers, a passing attack once feared will soon become painfully easy to stop.

Regression from Kirk Cousins

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At some point, the ongoing uncertainty surrounding his future is sure to get to Kirk Cousins. If nothing else, it's an unwanted distraction ahead of what is likely to be the toughest season of his pro career.

There is no other way to spin a scenario where Cousins will be without two receivers as talented as Jackson and Garcon. Both players made No. 8 a better quarterback.

Jackson's natural flair for taking the top off defenses often kept safeties back and gave Cousins easier reads pre-snap and more room to exploit underneath. When he did look short, the 28-year-old usually saw Garcon open as a tough-as-nails possession man who would make the contested catches to turn errant throws into completions.

Of course, Jackson and Garcon were just one part of the equation for Cousins' success. His own talent also featured prominently. Specifically, the ability to make quick decisions and spread the ball around to keep defenses guessing.

Cousins has mastered head coach Jay Gruden's offense to the point where the concepts and adjustments are second nature. The big difference is he's no longer being asked to lean on the talents around him. Now the quarterback is the one expected to make his supporting cast better.

It's a lot to take on for a two-year starter, especially when he doesn't know if this will be his last contract with the Burgundy and Gold. There is still next to no headway being made on a new deal for Cousins before the deadline on July 15, according to Mike Jones of the Washington Post.

Placing football's most important position on quicksand is one of the more frustrating and bizarre gambles undertaken by the Redskins management in recent years. The implications of it backfiring will be swift and brutal for this team.

Things unravelling under center is the quickest way for a winning program to turn into a losing one. It's the scenario Washington faces if the man who has passed them to consecutive winning seasons takes a few steps back in 2017.

Many of the potential issues listed here are worst-case scenarios for the Redskins in the new season. Fortunately, the roster is well-stocked enough at most spots to believe the campaign will still be a successful one if even two of these forecasts of potential doom come true.

Yet three or four of these problems becoming reality would be a perfect storm for Gruden and Co. in 2017.