New York Yankees' 2017 MLB Draft Preview, Predictions
The New York Yankees open 2017's MLB amateur draft in a familiar spot they hope to leave behind.
Rather than bottoming out—or simply incurring a losing record for the first time since 1992—the Bronx Bombers notched 84-87 victories in each of the past four years.
Following last season's 84-78 campaign, they will make their first-round selection at pick No. 16, two slots higher than last year and the same spot in which they snagged James Kaprielian in 2015.
That will change next season if they maintain their American League East lead fueled by demonstrative power from 2013 No. 30 pick Aaron Judge. As the prestigious franchise eyes a return to supremacy, it can bolster an already-stacked farm system when the three-day draft commences on June 12.
By examining their current crop of prospects and top available options, let's get a sense of how they may handle this year's selection process.
Farm System Strengths
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Position players headline their farm system, and that's probably by design. The Chicago Cubs and Houston Astros have established a blueprint of loading up on everyday hitters, who don't break or bust as often as pitchers.
Both acquired last July, shortstop Gleyber Torres and outfielder Clint Frazier headline a loaded group which recently promoted Judge and starting pitcher Jordan Montgomery. They could don pinstripes as soon as this summer, which wouldn't deplete their system.
Outfielder Blake Rutherford—last year's first-round pick taken out of high school—and shortstop Jorge Mateo join them as top-50 MLB.com prospects. Hitting .297 with nine homers and seven steals in Triple-A, 2013 18th-round pick Dustin Fowler adds to their rich outfield.
They will also hope Gary Sanchez and Greg Bird lock down long-term roles to form a super lineup when they have spending power to woo a star-studded 2018 free-agent crop featuring Bryce Harper and Manny Machado.
That doesn't mean the Yankees will shy away from offense. Their surprisingly strong start could persuade general manager Brian Cashman to exchange some of their current young talent for a major league starter and/or corner infielder next month.
Areas of Need
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Pitching isn't exactly a weakness. Compared to their bountiful offense, though, it can use improvement.
Obtained alongside Frazier from the Cleveland Indians last summer, Justus Sheffield should have a future either as a starter or high-leverage reliever. Chance Adams, selected in the fifth round two years ago, has allowed 10 runs in as many starts between Double-A and Triple-A this season.
They did endure a big blow, however, when Kaprielian was shut down and required to undergo Tommy John surgery in April. Although Masahiro Tanaka's struggles also create future uncertainty for their major league rotation, Luis Severino has played the part of a future ace while Montgomery has flashed plenty of promise as a mid-rotation piece.
If drafting purely in terms of current positional need—which isn't recommended—the Yankees would seek a high-impact arm. Then again, their most successful first-round pitcher picks this century—Gerrit Cole, Ian Kennedy and Phil Hughes—either didn't sign or flourished once escaping the Big Apple.
Chase Headley's struggles also open a door no third baseman in New York's system is ready to walk through. That's unless Miguel Andujar's current 14-game hitting streak in Double-A is indicative of more than a hot stretch.
In case Bird is more suited to serve as a designated hitter, they also may consider future options at first.
Top Hitting Options
3 of 5If the Yankees want another big bat, they will likely once again take the prep route.
Experts have most recently linked them to two high school hitters. A college third baseman with a juicy name for pun enthusiasts also joins the conversation after skyrocketing up draft boards.
Nick Pratto, 1B, Huntington Beach HS (Calif.)
ESPN Insider Keith Law linked the Yankees to Nick Pratto, a left-handed first baseman praised for his quick bat and tuned plate presence. Baseball America identified him as this class' top high school hitter.
The Californian's power, however, remains his primary question mark. Minor League Ball's John Sickels praised Pratto's bat speed and ability to handle all pitches, but he addressed uncertainty over his power maturing well enough for his position.
"Power optimists see him developing along Joey Votto lines, while pessimists fear an erratic Eric Hosmer-ish fate or perhaps a Yonder Alonso (the 2012-2016 version) outcome," Sickels wrote in his scouting report.
As Alonso has proved with his late-career breakout, hitting for pop can be a learned skill. And a hitter like Hosmer would probably love teeing off at Yankee Stadium's short porch in right field.
Austin Beck, OF, North Davidson HS (N.C.)
MLB.com colleagues Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo both like Austin Beck for the Bronx Bombers. They also both noted that the high school outfielder could go higher.
The high school outfielder has produced wide differences of opinion among draft analysts. Law has the Philadelphia Phillies grabbing him at pick No. 8, but Baseball America's John Manuel sees him "losing draft helium" and sliding all the way to the Texas Rangers' No. 26 choice.
Projecting teenage prospects while accounting for signing concerns makes an inexact exercise even more impossible to foreshadow. Beck, a potential five-tool center fielder, is committed to the University of North Carolina.
In April, Sickels said Beck could push for the No. 1 spot. As with Rutherford, the Yanks could envision his upside as too grand to pass up in the middle of the opening round.
Jake Burger, 3B, Missouri State
If New York tabloid editors who write back-page headlines made the call, the Yankees would draft Jake Burger. And as they already have with Judge, the jokes would quickly get old. Unless, of course, he has a son and names him Bob.
The junior has raked throughout his Missouri State stay, batting .341/.422/.627 in three seasons. He served up 22 home runs during a well-done junior campaign. (See, it's getting old already.)
In January, Hero Sports' Christopher Crawford labeled his ceiling as "a power-hitting third baseman" with a cushy safety net as "a solid bench option who should murder left-handed pitching." He's rarely cheated at the plate, which Burger credited to revamping his swing to focus on elevating balls in an interview with MLB Daily Dish's Chris Cotillo.
By already successfully enacting a fly-ball and hard-hit oriented approach which has revitalized many MLB careers, Burger has earned a first-round designation.
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Top Pitching Options
4 of 5With C.C. Sabathia likely on his last leg, the Yankees could tap a potential successor in the opening round.
These three encouraging southpaws are expected to go within the 10-20 range, so one's name may get called by the Evil Empire.
David Peterson, LHP, Oregon
Although other highlighted mock drafts gave New York a bat, Manuel instead envisions New York targeting a pitcher. He chose Oregon's David Peterson, a 6'6", 235-pound lefty who recorded 140 strikeouts in 100.1 innings this season.
Plenty of young hurlers rack up whiffs at school, but Peterson has paired that dominance with 15 walks in as many starts. After issuing one free pass and 20 strikeouts in a complete-game shutout, he entered May with an NCAA-best 17.8 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
"That's what it looks like when Clayton Kershaw or (Madison) Bumgarner do it as well," Oregon head coach George Horton told the Register-Guard's Steve Mims following the 20-strikeout gem. "That's big-league stuff."
Other mocks have him going near this range, and he fits the prototype of tall power pitchers which has traditionally drawn the franchise's interest. Yet the Yankees might gravitate toward two tantalizing prep arms if either falls to No. 16.
D.L. Hall, LHP, Valosta HS (Ga.)
When he projected the Yankees to pick Pratto, Law also noted that they have "matched up with prep arm D.L. Hall as well."
Although no high school pitcher is highly projectable, Hall has a slight edge on his peers with crisp command and a sharp curveball complementing a fastball which sits 90-93 and reaches 95. He doesn't wield the same ace upside as other top-10 candidates, but teams may see a promising No. 2 or 3 starter.
The lanky 6-foot teenager will need to develop more strength, but that's why the minors exist. Command is his key to a long professional career.
Baseball America's No. 14 prospect, who committed to Florida State, may not last until the Yankees turn. Callis predicted the Miami Marlins poaching him at No. 13.
Trevor Rogers, LHP, Carlsbad HS (N.M.)
If the Yankees prefer upside, they'll push Trevor Rogers higher up the draft board. The 6'6" high schooler from Carlsbad, New Mexico, can regularly hit 95 with what Sickels called a "low-effort delivery."
He's also the riskiest choice of these three southpaws. Although an erratic slider could blossom into a dangerous pitch, he has yet to harness a trustworthy secondary offering. He has also not demonstrated consistent command against prep opponents.
Rogers is a project pick who will require patience, but sure things don't exist in MLB's draft. His ceiling makes No. 16 a reasonable landing spot.
Prediction: Nick Pratto
5 of 5A deep and profitable organization won't need to worry about filling a glaring need or drafting someone who will sign below the pick's $3,458,600 slot value, per MLB.com. As a result, the Yankees are again well-positioned to swing for the fences.
They showed an enhanced willingness to test the prep waters last year, so a high-ceiling approach may lead to a high school prospect. Yet those highlighted players—particularly Beck and Hall—are less likely to remain available.
Rogers is a tad too risky for a franchise that has prioritized position players and witnessed its top pitching prospect suffer a significant injury. That leaves Pratto, a refined prep batter with room to grow in the power department.
The left-handed slugger would love Yankee Stadium if he earns the right to call it home. Pratto is also a potential high-end defender who could retreat to the mound as a fallback. They'll have plenty of more rounds to play the lottery on pitching.
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