Would Cleveland Cavaliers Shake Up Roster If 2017 NBA Finals Aren't Close?
After LeBron James and Co. captured Cleveland's first professional championship in 52 years and the first in the Cavaliers' 46-year history, it would be easy to think this year's NBA Finals carry little pressure.
The Golden State Warriors are the heavy favorites, have the previous three MVP winners and should be highly motivated to disprove anyone throwing around a worn-out 3-1 joke.
They also have a higher ceiling and a more talented core that should be fully intact next season. Cleveland, led by the 32-year-old James, will see its title window close much sooner.
But with the pressure to deliver a championship to Northeast Ohio lifted, these Cavaliers need to at least make this a competitive series—or run the risk of a major shake-up this offseason.
If the Cavs win the NBA Finals again, lose in seven games or at least make it a competitive six, don't expect much to change heading into next season.
Anything short of those three options is almost guaranteed to bring alterations.
Already with the highest payroll in the history of professional basketball, Cleveland has no clear cap space, significant draft picks or fountain of youth in sight.
James will be 33 this December, while other key members of the Cavs are creeping up in age as well (Kyle Korver, 36, Richard Jefferson, 36, Channing Frye, 34, Deron Williams, 32, J.R. Smith, 31).
Unfortunately for Cleveland, not even all of these role players are locks to return. Korver and Williams will be unrestricted free agents. Of the two, Cleveland only holds the Bird rights for Korver, per Spotrac.com.
The Cavs already have over $126 million in salary guaranteed for next season, well above the projected cap of $101 million.
With no cap room to improve the team, Cleveland would have to rely on internal improvements and a mid-level exception valued at $5,192,000 per BasketballInsiders.com.
New deals for Korver and Williams could push the Cavaliers' team salary close to $140 million. Traditionally, majority owner Dan Gilbert has poured money into the team when needed, even if it resulted in financial loss. But if the Finals aren't competitive, it would be hard to imagine Gilbert paying significantly more money for the same 15 players.
Picks Are Gone, GM Could Be Next
Former general manager Chris Grant stockpiled draft picks like a teenager at a children's Easter egg hunt, a stash that eventually helped current GM David Griffin land the likes of Korver, Frye and erstwhile Cavs big man Timofey Mozgov.
Now, the cupboard is bare.
Cleveland can't trade a draft pick until 2019. If teams want a first-rounder? They'll have to wait until 2021.
Griffin sacrificed the future to deliver James and the Cavs titles now, to no fault. He's done a great job of locking up James, Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love, Tristan Thompson, Iman Shumpert and Smith to multi-year deals as well.
The one other key Cavalier without a contract for next season? Griffin himself.
As Joe Vardon of Cleveland.com notes, talks between Griffin and Gilbert have taken place, but there's no deal to show for it:
"Griffin and Cavs owner Dan Gilbert have spoken about continuing their partnership in recent days, sources said, though no agreement was reached. The two sides could potentially get serious about a new deal between the Eastern Conference Finals and NBA Finals, time permitting. Or further discussion could wait until after the playoffs are over."
For all the running jokes about James' being the GM of the team, nothing could be further from the truth. While Griffin certainly uses his superstar as a recruiting tool, he's widely respected around the league for his salary-cap knowledge and ability to surround James with a championship roster.
As Vardon notes, the Milwaukee Bucks are interested in Griffin for their GM vacancy, while the Orlando Magic previously planned to offer Griffin the role of president of basketball operations before hiring former Bucks GM John Hammond, per Brian Windhorst of ESPN.
Leaving a championship team would be tough. Leaving a team that got man-handled in the Finals with no real ammunition to improve would be far easier for Griffin, especially for a young, talent-rich franchise like the Bucks.
How Cleveland performs in the Finals could decide Griffin's future.
Trade Talks Reopened
If the Cavaliers had lost the Finals last summer with an average of 8.5 points and 6.8 rebounds per game from Kevin Love, would he still be on the team?
Thankfully for the Cavs, Griffin didn't have to make that decision. As a result, Love has become more comfortable year after year with the franchise and responded with 19.0 points and 11.1 rebounds on 37.3 percent shooting from three—all Cleveland career bests.
That said, if the Cavaliers fall and Love has a disappointing Finals, don't assume he's safe.
Cleveland has no cap space to sign free agents and no draft picks to trade for additional help. Its only option would be to trade a star of significant value. James isn't going anywhere, and Irving is the Cavs' future at age 25.
Which gets us back to Love.
The 28-year-old is owed approximately $72 million over the next three years—an absolute bargain by today's standards. Would the Cavs prefer to part with Love now that he's gotten progressively better every year? Of course not, but what other options would they have?
Cleveland could attempt to package contracts outside of Love to acquire New York Knicks forward Carmelo Anthony, something it tried to do right before the February trade deadline this year.
Of course, these are all worst-case scenarios for the Cavs. If they don't win, the Finals need to at least be competitive enough to prevent major shake-ups in the roster. Griffin's likely to get a rich new deal, and a full year of Korver and Williams in the rotation could lead to an improved team in 2018.
This isn't a must-win Finals for the Cavs, but it is a must-be-close championship series if they are to avoid a dramatic summer makeover.
Stats via Basketball Reference and NBA.com and are accurate through May 30. Odds provided by Odds Shark.
Greg Swartz is the Cleveland Cavaliers Lead Writer for Bleacher Report.
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