Predicting Pittsburgh Steelers' Stat Leaders in 2017
The Pittsburgh Steelers have done much work over the years to improve their offense and defense, with the former being one of the most formidable groups in the league and the latter getting younger and trying to catch up.
So will the offense continue to produce at a high level this year? Will the defense's youth movement result in flashier stats?
Here are predictions for the Steelers' stat leaders on both sides of the ball for the upcoming 2017 season.
Passing
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1. Ben Roethlisberger: 3,950 yards, 33 touchdowns, 12 interceptions
2. Landry Jones: 330 yards, two touchdowns, two interceptions
3. Joshua Dobbs: No stats (does not dress)
As of now, there are no lingering injury worries for Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and thus no reason to think that he won't be ready to play come Week 1. But given his injury history, it's not hard to imagine him missing a game or two, with backup Landry Jones having to step in.
But even when Roethlisberger misses time, as he did for two games last year, he is still remarkably steady from a statistical perspective.
This upcoming season should see him approach the 4,000-yard mark, and 33 touchdowns seems to be another within-reach number given the number of weapons available to him. Twelve interceptions in what should be around 330 passing attempts also seems to be a realistic prediction.
This, of course, assumes that Jones will remain the backup, while rookie Joshua Dobbs holds down the third-string job.
Jones, in relief for Roethlisberger for a game (and perhaps also on the field in Week 17, presuming the Steelers are the top dog in the AFC North again), could easily have just north of 300 passing yards, with two passing scores and two interceptions (he had four scores and two picks a year ago).
In this scenario, there would be no passing stats recorded for Dobbs in the regular season. The Steelers just aren't a team that uses a spot on its active, game-day roster for a third quarterback.
Receiving
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1. Antonio Brown: 110 receptions, 1,480 yards, 12 touchdowns
2. Martavis Bryant: 54 receptions, 810 yards, eight touchdowns
3. Ladarius Green: 43 receptions, 720 yards, six touchdowns
Steelers No. 1 wideout Antonio Brown will continue on his record-setting ways and post a fifth consecutive season with over 100 receptions, this time amassing 110 catches. This could easily yield 1,480 yards—if not more—and a dozen touchdowns also seems like an in-reach number for the five-time Pro Bowler.
Assuming No. 2 wideout Martavis Bryant doesn't run afoul of the NFL's disciplinary arm and can play all 16 games, it's easy to assume he'd be the No. 2 leader in receiving yards this year.
Bryant has a career average of 17.3 yards per reception, something reflected in the predicted 54 catches for 810 yards and eight scores.
Another speedy, deep threat rounds out the Steelers' trio of receiving leaders for 2017. Tight end Ladarius Green, who missed 10 games last year with various injuries, seems ready to be a full-time contributor in 2017.
Should that prove true, Green can be another field-stretcher for the Steelers in 2017, amassing 720 yards and six scores on a mere 43 receptions.
While rookie JuJu Smith-Schuster should have a strong season given the quality of the offense around him, this trio is just too dynamic for him to crack the Steelers' top-three receivers (by stats) for the 2017 season.
Also, don't forget about the receiving prowess of running back Le'Veon Bell. He had 616 receiving yards a year ago and could be No. 4 on this list (or even leapfrog Green for No. 3).
Rushing
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1. Le'Veon Bell: 270 carries, 1,310 yards, seven touchdowns (4.9 YPC)
2. James Conner: 101 carries, 405 yards, four touchdowns (4.0 YPC)
3. Fitzgerald Toussaint: 12 carries, 41 yards, zero touchdowns (3.3 YPC)
The Steelers' run game this year will again belong mostly to Le'Veon Bell.
Bell, who totaled 1,268 rushing yards and seven rushing scores though appearing in only 12 games last year, should have an even better season given 16 games' worth of work. In fact, the prediction above—270 carries, 1,310 yards and seven scores—is on the conservative side.
Backing up Bell this year is rookie James Conner, who should get even more opportunities than veteran backup DeAngelo Williams had a season ago.
Conner—a powerful north-south runner—could be a go-to short-yardage and goal-line back, opportunities that could easily add up to 101 carries for 405 yards and four scores (which does not include two-point tries, of which Conner could be a major part this year).
The Steelers rarely turn to their third running back option. While it could end up being Knile Davis, signed as a free agent earlier in the spring, as of now that job belongs to Fitzgerald Toussaint.
Toussaint should get about 12 carries for 41 yards, but he also has value as a kick and/or punt returner.
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Tackles
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1. Ryan Shazier: 72
2. Sean Davis: 60
3. Mike Mitchell: 57
When it comes to the Steelers' defense, their top tackling performers are almost always safeties and inside linebackers.
The safeties work against the run and the pass (and also rush the passer), and they are all over the field and heading toward the football. The inside linebackers handle some coverage and pass-rush duties and also are top run-stoppers. This trend should continue in 2017.
Last year, inside linebacker Lawrence Timmons was Pittsburgh's tackle leader; this year, fellow interior linebacker Ryan Shazier should take the top spot, though Timmons' replacement, Vince Williams, should also find himself at No. 4 or No. 5.
At safety, Sean Davis was Pittsburgh's fourth-leading tackler last year despite being a half-year starter; this year, with 16 games ahead of him and a starting job guaranteed, he should be able to crack the 60-tackle threshold.
But fellow safety Mike Mitchell won't be quiet, either. Last year, he had just one more tackle than Davis on the year, but in 2017 he will finish with three fewer than the second-year defensive back.
Sacks
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1. Bud Dupree: 7.5
2. James Harrison: 5.0
3. Stephon Tuitt: 4.5
The Steelers defense had 38 combined sacks in 2016, but none of their defenders had a double-digit total. That share-the-love approach to pressuring quarterbacks should continue in 2017, but again that doesn't mean the unit as a whole will lack the intimidation factor.
Linebacker James Harrison led the team in sacks a year ago with five, but this year fellow linebacker Bud Dupree will earn the top honors, improving on his 4.5 in 2016 by three, with a year-end total of 7.5 sacks.
Harrison (age 39 and still going strong) will remain a force to be reckoned with, though, ending 2017 with yet another five sacks.
Defensive end Stephon Tuitt had four sacks a season ago and seems on pace to have a similar performance for the upcoming season, registering 4.5 sacks in 2017.
Behind this trio should be a rather large group consisting of linebackers Ryan Shazier, Vince Williams and Arthur Moats and defensive end Cam Heyward, who will end the year in the three-to-four sacks range.
Interceptions
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1. Artie Burns: Five
T-2. Sean Davis: Four
T-2. Ryan Shazier: Four
3. Ross Cockrell: Three
The Steelers have not been much of a takeaway-driven team when it comes to defending the pass, instead trying to limit touchdowns.
Pittsburgh's defense as a whole only totaled 13 interceptions in 2016. The upcoming season should be better from a turnover perspective, especially as the team is trying to work in more man-to-man concepts for their passing coverage.
As such, Pittsburgh's two interception leaders from a year ago—cornerback Artie Burns and linebacker Ryan Shazier—should improve upon their three apiece, with Burns posting a team-leading five and Shazier tying with safety Sean Davis with four for 2017.
Cornerback Ross Cockrell, Burns' counterpart on the boundary, should also have an improved season from a takeaway perspective. Last year, he had zero; this year, three does not seem out of the question.
Still, Pittsburgh's defense will not be defined by its interceptions but rather its ability to keep opponents out of the end zone.
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