2017 NBA Draft: Best-Case Scenario for Each Top Prospect
Team fit can play a significant role in a prospect's development once he's selected in the NBA draft.
Some players need early minutes, while others require talent to play off or time to learn from the bench.
They all need rosters that can mask their weaknesses.
We matched each prospect with the team or situation that would give them the best chance to thrive and maximize their potential.
The following players represent the top echelon of talent in the 2017 draft.
9. Lauri Markkanen (Arizona, PF/C, Freshman)
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Best-case scenario: Dallas Mavericks, with Nerlens Noel returning
Dirk Nowitzki's mentorship would be an obvious selling point for Lauri Markkanen, who similarly compensates for limited power and explosiveness with perimeter skills.
But the bigger draw for Markkanen is Dallas' potential to mask his weakness or keep teams from exposing it. He struggles with physicality down low and doesn't offer any rim protection.
In this best-case scenario, the Mavericks would bring back Nerlens Noel, which coach Rick Carlisle said will be a priority, and draft Markkanen to play the 4. Noel held opponents to 53.8 percent shooting inside six feet.
In comparison, the Detroit Pistons' Andre Drummond, Orlando Magic's Nikola Vucevic, Sacramento Kings' Willie Cauley-Stein and Minnesota Timberwolves' Karl-Anthony Towns (centers for teams projected to pick in the Nos. 5-12 range) allowed over 59 percent shooting inside six feet.
Plus, Dallas allowed the fewest field-goal attempts inside six feet of any team in the league. Assuming Carlisle's defensive schemes stay the same, Markkanen may not be forced into many rim-protection situations.
The Mavericks also took the sixth-most three-pointers in the league in 2016-17, which should suit the Finn stretch big, who shot 42.3 percent from deep in college and could be the top shooter in the draft.
8. Jonathan Isaac (Florida State, SF, Freshman)
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Best-case scenario: Minnesota Timberwolves, with a move to power forward
Used on just 20.3 percent of Florida State's possessions and having taken only eight shots per game, Jonathan Isaac needs to land on a team that has pillars for him to lean on.
The Wolves have two volume scorers and a need for another forward. Isaac would fit nicely between Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns, and in that spot, the team would value his pick-and-roll defense and complementary offense, which highlights patience and efficiency (59.3 percent on two-pointers).
Minnesota could give Isaac early minutes without a heavy workload or pressure. Plus, Isaac's and Towns' versatility at the 4 and 5 would be difficult for opponents to match.
He'll need to get stronger, but Isaac's toughness inside (12 rebounds per 40 minutes) was encouraging. This best-case scenario has Isaac utilizing his quickness as the Timberwolves' small-ball power forward.
7. Malik Monk (Kentucky, SG, Freshman)
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Best-case scenario: Philadelphia 76ers
The 76ers would give Malik Monk the best of both worlds: unlimited playing time and the chance to fill a need.
The Sixers finished last in offensive efficiency this season and could use an additional shot-maker, particularly one like Monk (19.8 points, 2.7 threes per game), who can knock down jumpers off screens, spot-ups and leak-outs.
In Philadelphia, he can play his game without being forced to create one-on-one, which isn't a strength. Monk should benefit from Ben Simmons' and Dario Saric's passing as well as all the attention Joel Embiid draws in the post.
In terms of other lottery teams expected to look at Monk, the Orlando Magic don't have any upside, and the Sacramento Kings offer little talent to play off. There is too much uncertainty in New York. He'd fit in the Minnesota Timberwolves lineup, but it needs more defense—not offense. And though Zach LaVine is recovering from a knee injury, at full strength, he brings too similar a skill set.
6. Dennis Smith Jr. (North Carolina State, PG, Freshman)
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Best-case scenario: Dallas Mavericks
As a ball-dominator, Dennis Smith Jr. will want to land with a team that has an opening at point guard or a need for an upgrade.
His ceiling is higher than Elfrid Payton's, but the Orlando Magic don't have the scorers to support Smith, who struggled at times with decision-making as North Carolina State's No. 1 option.
The New York Knicks won't be a best-case scenario for any point guard with the triangle in place, and with Ben Simmons the projected primary ball-handler in Philadelphia, the 76ers aren't as attractive for Smith, either.
Smith would benefit from the leadership already in Dallas (coach Rick Carlisle, Dirk Nowitzki, Wesley Matthews, Harrison Barnes) as well as the Mavericks' ability to surround him with scorers and shooters like Barnes, Matthews and Seth Curry.
He'd also be a high-percentage pick-and-roll target if the Mavericks bring back Nerlens Noel.
The starting job would be Smith's from the get-go, though he wouldn't have to do too much, which would be a recipe for efficiency.
5. De'Aaron Fox (Kentucky, PG, Freshman)
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Best-case scenario: Los Angeles Lakers, with D'Angelo Russell moving to shooting guard
Limited versatility and a questionable jumper stand out as De'Aaron Fox's big weaknesses. He'll need a team with enough shooters that can also start him at point guard.
The Philadelphia 76ers already have a non-shooting primary ball-handler in Ben Simmons. And Fox wouldn't work well playing off the ball next to Isaiah Thomas in Boston. He could take Elfrid Payton's job in Orlando, but the Magic had the second-worst three-point percentage in the league this season.
The Lakers would be an ideal fit for Fox, who could take over at the 1 and push Russell to 2-guard, a position he's proved he can play. Los Angeles' No. 30-ranked defense in efficiency would also likely benefit from Fox's extreme quickness next to Russell.
In L.A., Fox would get the spotlight and shot-makers at the 2 and 3 with Russell and Brandon Ingram. He would also get an offense that likes to run (No. 6 in pace), which plays into his strengths as an open-floor weapon (91 field goals in transition in 36 games at Kentucky).
4. Jayson Tatum (Duke, SF, Freshman)
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Best-case scenario: Philadelphia 76ers
Despite their records over the past several seasons, the 76ers' rebuild appears promising, and prospects should now want to be a part of it.
There happens to be a need in Philadelphia for another two-way scorer, with Ben Simmons' game mostly about facilitating and Dario Saric more of a jack-of-all-trades than a go-to option.
Jayson Tatum would get immediate reps, and coach Brett Brown will value his ability to create shots and score against set half-court defenses.
The Boston Celtics and Los Angeles Lakers are already invested in wings, and though the Phoenix Suns have an opening, the Sixers' upside appears higher.
3. Lonzo Ball (UCLA, PG, Freshman)
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Best-Case Scenario: Boston Celtics
Lonzo Ball may want the Los Angeles Lakers, but the Celtics represent the more ideal team for him to start with.
If there is a weakness of Ball's, it's defense, which Kentucky's De'Aaron Fox exposed by going for 39 points against UCLA in the NCAA tournament. The Lakers were dead last in defensive efficiency, and though Ball would help the offense, it's fair to question whether a Ball-D'Angelo Russell-Brandon Ingram-Julius Randle core would stop anybody.
Boston, which ranked 12th in defensive efficiency, has enough defenders to mask Ball's struggles in guarding the perimeter.
He'd also complement Isaiah Thomas' volume scoring with quick-decision passing, and Ball doesn't need to dominate the rock. He made an enormous impact at UCLA despite being used on just 18.1 percent of the Bruins' possessions.
His approach also fits the Celtics offense, which calls for shots at the rim and behind the arc—not in between. Only four teams generated a fewer percentage of their points in the mid-range than Boston. That philosophy should work for Ball, who finished his freshman season with 97 baskets at the rim, 80 threes and just 12 made field goals in between.
2. Josh Jackson (Kansas, SG/SF, Freshman)
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Best-Case Scenario: Phoenix Suns
Having already excelled playing alongside two scoring guards in Frank Mason III and Devonte' Graham, Josh Jackson shouldn't have to make a big adjustment with the Suns.
Their offense will continue to start with Eric Bledsoe and Devin Booker, which would be a good thing for Jackson, whose skills are still behind his athleticism.
Phoenix played at the second-fastest pace in 2016-17, and that would suit his open-floor explosiveness.
He'd play to his strengths for a Suns team that runs, needs a wing and finished 28th in defensive efficiency—something Jackson's quickness could help with around the perimeter.
Though Jackson could take it slow with the Boston Celtics, Phoenix would give him immediate reps to improve his handle, shot-creating and shooting—areas he must strengthen to maximize his potential as a two-way scorer.
1. Markelle Fultz (Washington, PG/SG, Freshman)
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Best-Case Scenario: Boston Celtics
The best-case scenario for Markelle Fultz has the lottery odds holding up and the Celtics taking him first overall.
He maybe could put up bigger numbers elsewhere, but his shot selection and efficiency would benefit from the surrounding talent and veterans in Boston. And the Celtics could also use another scorer to take pressure off Isaiah Thomas.
Plus, Avery Bradley will be in the final year of his deal in 2017-18. Between Fultz's size and shooting, playing 2-guard shouldn't be an issue; he would still see enough shots and playmaking chances.
After a 9-22 season at Washington, it could start to weigh on his psyche if he begins his NBA career with a tanking franchise. Boston's winning culture should be the biggest selling point for Fultz.
All stats courtesy of NBA.com, Hoop-Math.com, Sports-Reference.com and ESPN.com.
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