5 Bold Predictions for the San Francisco Giants' 2017 Season
The San Francisco Giants were unable to keep the even-year magic rolling last season as they were ousted in the Division Series, but they once again look like one of the better teams in the National League.
The offseason addition of pitcher Mark Melancon addresses a leaky bullpen that was far and away the team's biggest weakness, while healthy seasons from Hunter Pence and Joe Panik could provide the offense with a significant boost without the benefit of a splashy signing.
The starting rotation should once again be a strength, with Madison Bumgarner and Johnny Cueto leading the way and Matt Moore around for a full season, though the No. 5 spot remains a question mark, as Matt Cain will look to bounce back once again.
Meanwhile, the farm system is relatively thin, but top dogs Christain Arroyo and Tyler Beede are both inching closer to making an impact and they could get the call at some point in 2017.
At any rate, we've taken a crack at making five bold predictions surrounding this year's Giants team, focusing on the individual level as opposed to team-specific predictions.
Joe Panik Will Hit .300
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Joe Panik looked like a star on the rise for the San Francisco Giants when he made the NL All-Star team in 2015.
He posted a .312/.378/.455 line with 37 extra-base hits and nearly as many walks (38) as strikeouts (42) on his way to a 3.3 WAR in his first full season in the majors.
Panik's average dipped 73 points last season, though, as he dealt with a concussion. He set new career-bests in home runs (10), RBI (62) and runs scored (67), but by all accounts, it was a down year.
There's reason for optimism, though.
His .245 BABIP ranked 145th among 146 qualified hitters and he maintained his strong contract rate and solid plate discipline with 50 walks against 47 strikeouts over 526 plate appearances.
With some better luck, there's no reason the 26-year-old can't return to being a .300 hitter and climb his way from the No. 8 spot in the lineup back up to the 2-hole.
Christian Arroyo Won't Debut Until 2018
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Christian Arroyo emerged as the San Francisco Giants' top position-player prospect in 2015 when he hit .304 with an .803 OPS and 39 extra-base hits at the High-A level.
While his OPS dropped to .689 last season in Double-A, he ranked third in the Eastern League with 36 doubles and remains a highly regarded prospect.
The question now is where he fits into the team's immediate plans.
"He might be a guy this season if there's an injury or there's an opportunity with somebody struggling and there's an opportunity with everyday at-bats, then you make that call and bring him up," general manager Bobby Evans told KNBR (via CSN Bay Area).
He added: "The challenge is you really don't want to put him in a position where he's a part-time player at the big league level at 21 years old, you want him coming up to be an everyday guy."
His long-term future appears to be at third base, where Eduardo Nunez and Conor Gillaspie are entrenched at the MLB level.
From there, veteran infielder Aaron Hill, utility man Kelby Tomlinson and international signing Jae-gyun Hwang might all be ahead of Arroyo in the short term.
Hwang hit .335/.394/.570 with 26 doubles, 27 home runs and 113 RBI in the Korean Baseball Organization last season, and he hit .333 with a 1.040 OPS and five home runs this spring.
The Giants have no reason to rush Arroyo, and delaying his arrival until 2018 could wind up being in his best interest.
Hunter Pence Will Stay Healthy, Make the NL All-Star Team
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Hunter Pence used to be one of the most durable players in the league.
The 33-year-old played in at least 154 games each season over a seven-year span from 2008 to 2014, including all 162 games in both 2013 and 2014.
However, he's had a hard time staying on the field the past two seasons.
During that span, the Giants have gone 90-69 (.566) with Pence in the lineup, compared to 81-86 (.485) without him, so it's fair to say keeping him healthy will be one of the keys to the season.
It was a serious hamstring injury that limited him to just 106 games last season, but he's finally back to 100 percent and eyeing a healthy campaign.
He's off to a nice 6-for-15 start, and if he can stay on the field, a trip to the All-Star Game is not out of the question.
Pence has played in the Midsummer Classic three times in his career—most recently during the 2014 season when he also finished 11th in NL MVP voting—and even though it's tough to cut through a deep field of outfield options, playing for a presumptive contender should help his cause.
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Mark Melancon Will Lead the NL in Saves
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The San Francisco Giants wasted little time signing All-Star closer Mark Melancon to a four-year, $62 million deal in free agency after watching the bullpen implode down the stretch and into the postseason last year.
"It gives the club peace of mind, with so many close games that we play, that we have a lockdown guy for the ninth inning," GM Bobby Evans told Chris Haft of MLB.com following the signing.
He then promptly went out and blew his first save opportunity on Opening Day, allowing four hits and two earned runs against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
It's less than ideal, but he'll be fine.
The 32-year-old has been one of the game's best ninth-inning arms in recent years, converting 147 of 162 save chances with a 1.80 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 8.3 K/9 over the past four seasons.
And if last season is any indication, the Giants will find themselves in plenty of close games.
The team played in 55 one-run games last year, tops in the NL and second only to the Seattle Mariners (60) leaguewide.
They also saw 72 save chances, fourth-most in the majors, but nailed down just 43 of those for a 59.7 percent conversation rate.
All of that adds up to plenty of save chances for Melancon, who has already led the NL in saves once in his career when he tallied a Pittsburgh Pirates franchise record 51 in 2015.
The Giants' single-season mark is 48, shared by Rod Beck (1993) and Brian Wilson (2010).
Tyler Beede Will Start More Games Than Matt Cain or Ty Blach
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Relying on anything out of Matt Cain is a fool's errand at this point.
The 32-year-old will open the season in the No. 5 starter spot as the Giants try to get some sort of production out of his $21 million salary, but he's averaged just 80 innings per season with a 5.13 ERA over the past three years.
He didn't provide much reason for optimism this spring either, pitching to a 7.82 ERA while allowing 37 hits and 22 earned runs in 25.1 innings of work.
It's a safe bet that someone else will spend more time at the back of the rotation this season.
Ty Blach seems like the obvious candidate to be the next man up, after he impressed in a pair of late-season starts last year and won a spot on the Opening Day roster as a reliever.
However, with Will Smith lost for the season to Tommy John surgery and both Josh Osich and Steven Okert optioned to the minors, he's currently the only left-hander in the bullpen. That coupled with his ability to go multiple innings might make him more valuable in a relief role for the time being.
In which case, top prospect Tyler Beede has a strong case to be the next starter called upon.
The No. 14 pick in the 2014 draft was terrific in a full season at the Double-A level last year, going 8-7 with a 2.81 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 135 strikeouts in 147.1 innings.
The 23-year-old has taken the necessary steps improving his command to realize his potential as an innings-eating middle-of-the-rotation starter and he could make an immediate impact in the majors.
So let's go out on a limb here and say Beede seizes the No. 5 starter job before the All-Star break and winds up making more starts than both Cain and Blach.
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted.
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