Would Chelsea Be Premier League Champions Elect with John Stones Not David Luiz?

We get to see what might have been at Stamford Bridge on Wednesday.

Pep Guardiola brings his Manchester City side to west London to face Chelsea, with subplots aplenty. We know owner Roman Abramovich has admired the Spaniard from afar ever since his Barcelona team changed the face of modern football. Abramovich has lusted after him to do the same for his club, per Oliver Kay of the Times (h/t Sky Sports).

Yet it's not Guardiola who will offer the most intriguing comparison come kick-off, but John Stones.

The City man has a similar history to his coach with Chelsea. It was only in summer 2015 when he was supposed to become Chelsea's future. Stones had been chased throughout the transfer window and even attempted to force through a mega-money move from Everton by handing in a transfer request.

Everton didn't budge, and a year later the Blues lost out when Stones made the shorter trip from Goodison Park to City's Eithad Stadium home.

Clive Brunskill/Getty Images

All the while, Chelsea and their new boss Antonio Conte were searching high and low for the player who would bring about the defensive evolution they desperately craved. With an ageing John Terry no longer the answer at the back, Conte needed to adapt the way his team played.

Having missed out on a plethora of high-profile targets, the Blues eventually settled for David Luiz on transfer deadline day—a man they knew well from his previous life as a man in blue.

And that was a problem as Luiz's reputation preceded him. Whereas Stones—despite his £47.5 million price tag—was seen as a shrewd move in City's development, Luiz was regarded a step in the wrong direction for Chelsea. It wasn't a move to be celebrated.

The Brazilian had a reputation for being erratic, lacking discipline and being a bit of a loose cannon. Stones, the up-and-coming man of the English game, was the opposite.

Now here we are, eight months on, and the tables have turned. Guardiola's City are anything but Guardiola's City. The team we expected to waltz their way to the Premier League title hasn't even waltzed their way into the top four. The mesmerising effect of Guardiola's presence hasn't paid off. Neither has that investment in Stones, who has struggled.

Meanwhile, Chelsea are running away with the Premier League themselves, despite that shock defeat to Crystal Palace at the weekend. Conte's side have dazzled us all, proving the surprise package of 2016/17.

But they're not done there—what's surprised us more than anything has been the rebirth of Luiz. The Brazilian has been the unlikeliest of defensive lynchpins, serving up humble pie for his detractors with performances that have marvelled.

So did Everton's resistance do the Blues a £50 million favour? Is it City who had to bite the bullet? Would Chelsea be better off with Stones in their defence over Luiz? Bleacher Report takes a closer look, on the back of our FIFA sim of Stones in a Chelsea side vs. Manchester City.

What the fans have to say

Getting the view from the people in the stands is always a good place to start. And that's what we've done here, asking Chelsea fans to vote on Twitter for whom they would rather have leading them from the back.

Is it Stones? Or has Luiz proved himself to be the man Chelsea fans see as their future?

The results were nearly unanimous, with an astonishing 82 per cent of fans siding with Luiz over Stones.

The view from the terraces is that, without Luiz, this Chelsea side wouldn't be the same. There isn't the faith that Stones could step in and produce in the same way the Brazilian has. 

But how much of that is a partisan view? How much are Chelsea fans being influenced by the fact that Luiz wears a darker shade of blue than his counterpart, Stones?

Comparing their individual stats, we get a good insight.

Playing the numbers game

Forgetting the statistics that divide Chelsea and City this season—the latter have conceded close to a third more goals in the league—Luiz and Stones aren't too dissimilar.

And if we're looking purely at numbers, it's Stones who has arguably had the better campaign as an individual.

Observing the table below, Stones betters Luiz in many key areas. The City man has been the superior passer this season and has won more of the personal duels he has found himself (so tackles, headers and take ons) facing.

Where Luiz has been the dominant figure is through his lack of errors. So few and far between have his gaffes this season been, it's fed this idea of him being a completely different player altogether.

In the past it was the erratic nature of his game that saw Luiz fall under criticism. This season, however, it's been Stones' failure to improve that side of his game that has seen him called out.

	David Luiz	John Stones
Played	25	24
Successful tackles	40%	48%
Successful headers	48%	59%
Successful take-ons	89%	95%
Pass accuracy	83%	92%
Defensive errors	1	4
Average pass length	25m	19m
Chances created	6	4

How the managers have helped, or not

GLYN KIRK/Getty Images

It all comes down to style, and, right now, Luiz is being helped out by his manager and Stones isn't.

We've seen Conte protect Luiz in order to allow him to play football in a different way to we have seen from him in the past. With Chelsea's three-man defence, Luiz isn't defending as much as he has to. Rather, playing as the libero, Luiz is putting his footballing brain to better use and not his defensive instincts.

Gary Cahill and Cesar Azpilicueta shield Luiz from danger. His job isn't to be roaming and sniffing it out, instead mopping up what his team-mates create when they come into contact with opponents. Despite being at the back—the last line of defence given how deep Luiz sometimes positions himself—he's actually the first attacker.

It's he who is tasked with getting Chelsea moving up the pitch. It's Luiz who embodies the desire of Conte to play football away from his team's goal in order to give Chelsea's opponents less of a chance of scoring.

That Luiz has done it so effectively is to his credit and Conte's. The manager understood his strengths, and by so doing, he has empowered the Brazilian.

"

@garryhayes @br_uk Very similar players, both pretty crap defenders but this system suits Luiz (and would Stones) perfectly. Cushioned by 4 defensive teammates

— Alex McGovern (@amcgovern25) April 3, 2017"

For Stones, Guardiola hasn't done the same. City are more open because of their style and that in itself leaves Stones more exposed. And when defenders are more exposed it means more errors.

Those errors are what have damaged Stones this season. He's been called into defensive situations that Luiz hasn't.

Indeed, the one time Luiz has had to endure that came against West Ham United in the EFL Cup. John Terry was the centre of the three-man defence that night and Luiz put in one of his poorest displays since returning to Chelsea.

If we look at the passing stats of Stones above, we get an idea of what he's about and how he's capable of doing what Luiz is now for Chelsea.

Perhaps we're looking at this from the wrong angle. As impressive as Luiz has been (and Stones disappointing, to a degree), Chelsea's success hasn't been about the player, it's been about the man in the dugout.

So would Chelsea be champions-elect with Guardiola and not Conte? That's a whole different question.