NCAA Championship 2017: Updated Title Odds Going into Final Four

This Final Four has three teams that fit the profile of past national champs and one that shares some similarities with at least one (hello, 2014 Connecticut!).

Every year I do a Blueprint for a Champion, and the most important qualifier is ranking in the top 20 in both adjusted offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency. Oregon, Gonzaga and North Carolina all pass the test, and while South Carolina does not, the tourney version of the Gamecocks certainly would.

And because 2014 happened, we probably should not count out Frank Martin’s team.

Let’s take a look at our current title odds and what each team needs to do to get to Monday night and win. These odds aren't going to mirror the lines you'll find in Vegas and instead reflect our thoughts on how likely each team is to be the last one standing in Phoenix. 

South Carolina

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Title Odds: 8-1

The Road Ahead: The Gamecocks go up against a defense that is the only one better than its own. Gonzaga ranks No. 1 in adjusted defensive efficiency, and South Carolina ranks No. 2.

For those who would like to question the legitimacy of Gonzaga's numbers, the Zags have the best defense efficiency-wise in tournament games of the Final Four teams, holding opponents to 0.85 points per possession.

Reason to Buy: South Carolina's offense would have been a reason to sell before this tournament started, but it's now a reason to buy. The Gamecocks have scored 1.17 points per possession in the tournament, which is up from 1.02 pre-tourney.

It's like a completely different team on the offensive end with the same Frank Martin-level intense defense.

The Gamecocks also have the tournament's hottest scorer in Sindarius Thornwell. The senior wing has averaged 25.8 points per game in the NCAAs, and Martin does a tremendous job of moving him around to get him shots where he's comfortable.

Reason to Sell: The Final Four is usually where lower seeds go to die. Since Kansas won the title in 1988 as a No. 6 seed, there have only been two champions lower than a No. 3 seed—Arizona (No. 4 seed) in 1997 and Connecticut (No. 7 seed) in 2014. You'd also think at some point the South Carolina offense would return to its regular-season form.

Will Cut Down the Nets If: The Gamecocks are able to frustrate two more opponents with their pressure defense and if the offense, led by Thornwell, stays hot. Continuing to force turnovers at a high rate will be important. That's led to a lot of easy buckets.

Oregon

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Title Odds: 5-1

The Road Ahead: The Ducks get a shot at knocking off a No. 1 seed and blue blood for the second time in this tournament in a matchup with North Carolina. The Heels are a different kind of opponent than Kansas. Both like to push the tempo, but Kansas is much more reliant on its guards and perimeter shooting.

Reason to Buy: Jordan Bell and Dana Altman's offense.

Bell dominated the game against Kansas. Altman stuck him near the bucket in a zone, and that allowed him to swat just about everything. He had eight blocks and was in the heads of the Jayhawks. The last player to have a defensive impact like that against KU was Anthony Davis in the 2012 national title game.

Offensively, the Ducks feast on mismatches and are riding the hot hand of Tyler Dorsey. Dorsey is averaging 24.5 points per game and shooting 65.4 percent from deep in the tournament. The more difficult matchup for UNC could be Dillon Brooks, a wing-playing power forward. That's an awkward cross match for the Heels, who play big. Duke's Jayson Tatum, who is the closest ACC comp to Brooks, lit up Duke for 24 points in the ACC tournament.

Reason to Sell: Oregon will have to find a way to deal with UNC's front line and then potentially Gonzaga's as well. This is where the loss of Chris Boucher could finally come into play. Oregon is thin up front and could use another body when forced to play a deep front line with interior depth, and UNC and Gonzaga have the two deepest front lines in college hoops.

The Heels could also make Bell pay when he helps on defense much more than KU was able to. UNC is the best offensive rebounding team in the country. So when Bell goes to block a shot, he better get it, or it could turn into a putback. 

Will Cut Down the Nets If: Altman continues to dial up the right defenses and his shooters stay hot. Against Michigan, Altman had his team switch screens all over the floor, and that made it difficult for the Wolverines to run their offense. The zone against KU allowed Bell to dominate. And no matter what Oregon's defense does, it's going to be tough to knock off the Ducks if Dorsey keeps knocking down almost every shot he takes.

North Carolina

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Title Odds: 2-1

The Road Ahead: Oregon arrives at the Final Four as the hottest shooting team left. The Ducks also have the best shot-blocker in Jordan Bell. UNC just knocked off a talented trio in De'Aaron Fox, Malik Monk and Edrice "Bam" Adebayo of Kentucky. Oregon's trio—Bell, Dillon Brooks and Tyler Dorsey—comes in playing at a higher level and has experience.

Reason to Buy: Since the tournament field expanded to 64 teams, there have been 22 teams to reach the Final Four that had been there the year before. Nine of those teams won the title. (That stat does not include this year's UNC since the Final Four has not played out yet.)

There's definitely value in having been there before. Since 1990, only four coaches have won the title in their first Final Four appearance. Roy Williams is the only one of the four coaches who has been here before. So history is on the side of the Heels.

Reason to Sell: The Tar Heels have struggled with small-ball teams this season. They lost two of three to Duke, who plays Jayson Tatum at the 4, and also lost to Indiana when IU still had OG Anunoby starting at the 4 spot. Anunoby scored 16 points on 6-of-8 shooting. Brooks could be a problem for the Heels.

Will Cut Down the Nets If: Joel Berry is not hobbled, Justin Jackson is scoring and one of the big men keeps showing up. Berry hurt his left ankle in the Kentucky game and had already been dealing with a right ankle injury. The Heels are not nearly as dangerous if Berry is not himself. They also are much better when Jackson is making shots.

Williams should feel pretty good about his big men continuing to impact the game. At least one always shows up, and that is even more likely now that Elite Eight hero Luke Maye has emerged as a weapon. With the experience, talent and depth of the Heels, they should like their chances.

Gonzaga

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Title Odds: 3-2

The Road Ahead: The Zags get to play against a defense that'll make them feel like they're trying to score with a weight vest on. South Carolina's pressure is exhausting, and Frank Martin has somehow transformed his offense into an efficient unit. This is not the team that came into the tournament with a 22-10 record. Win that game and Gonzaga will play its toughest opponent all season, whether it's Oregon or North Carolina.

Reason to Buy: South Carolina beat a team in New York with great inside scoring (Baylor) and one with great outside scoring (Florida), but it has yet to play a squad with the kind of balance Gonzaga has. The Zags were the most complete team in college basketball this season. They have scoring inside and out and, statistically, the best defense in college hoops. 

Reason to Sell: Gonzaga already played a team in this tournament that looks a lot like South Carolina in terms of pressure defense and offensive philosophy. That would be West Virginia, coached by Frank Martin's former boss Bob Huggins.

The Zags survived the Mountaineers, but their pressure caused some issues. Gonzaga turned it over 16 times, and star point guard Nigel Williams-Goss struggled, finishing with 10 points on 2-of-10 shooting, two assists and five turnovers.

Will Cut Down the Nets If: They can survive South Carolina how they survived West Virginia—with their own defense winning the game—and then find their offensive rhythm again in the next contest, as they did against Xavier.

The Zags need the All-American version of Williams-Goss, and they need their bigs playing well. Getting touches for Przemek Karnowski and Zach Collins will be key against the Gamecocks defense, and power forward Johnathan Williams and his defensive versatility will be important in both games. Williams could end up spending some time on Thornwell, and he'll likely get the Dillon Brooks assignment if the Zags play Oregon.

Advanced stats courtesy of KenPom.com.