NCAA Tournament 2017: Power Ranking the Elite Eight Teams
We're still seven games away from finding out who the 2017 men's college basketball national champion will be, but every remaining team feels like a legitimate candidate to claim the title.
It's funny how everyone looks great after three straight wins, right? Not two weeks ago, we weren't even sure if Xavier would make the tournament. Now, the Musketeers are a threat to become the lowest seed to reach the national championship game—and possibly win it.
Despite the impressive start to the tournament, the No. 11 seed clearly belongs at the bottom of our power rankings, as teams that were better throughout the season have been equally splendid thus far. Kansas, in particular, has been ridiculously good, backing up its No. 1 seed by winning its first three games by an average margin of 30.0 points.
One important thing to note: Difficulty of path to the national championship has no bearing on this list. Rather, this could be considered a ranking of how we would seed the remaining eight teams based on perceived strength.
For each team, we'll note one thing we've learned, one major X-factor (player or statistic), who would be named the tournament's most outstanding player if they won it all and what it needs to do to make that happen.
8. Xavier Musketeers
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What We've Learned: Xavier can defend again. The Musketeers won with defense early in the season, but they had been awful at that part of the game recently. From New Year's Eve through March 1, Xavier played 17 games, allowing an average of 113.3 points per 100 possessions. It didn't matter if the X-Men were playing a title contender like Villanova or a sub-.500 team like St. John's; they couldn't buy a stop.
Out of nowhere, this is one of the tougher teams to score against. The Musketeers have only averaged 5.0 steals and 2.0 blocks in the tournament, and opponents are getting a significant number of offensive rebounds against them. Those opponents just can't make a jumper against the likes of Quentin Goodin and Malcolm Bernard. Maryland, Florida State and Arizona shot a combined 24.0 percent from three-point range in their losses to Xavier.
Most Outstanding Player Candidate: Trevon Bluiett. The junior wing is averaging 25.0 points per game in the tournament and set the tone early in the Sweet 16 win over Arizona. He made each of his first seven field-goal attempts and had 18 points before the end of the first half. When Xavier lost six straight late in the season, Bluiett injured his ankle in the first, missed the next two and wasn't quite right for the last three. But when he's healthy and doing his thing, Xavier can play with anyone.
X-Factor: Sean O'Mara. The big junior was a starter at the beginning of the season, but it took less than a month for him to lose that job. O'Mara still occasionally made an impact as Xavier's seventh man, but there was nothing to suggest he would average 12.3 points and 5.3 rebounds in the NCAA tournament. In crunch time against Arizona, he got the game-winning layup and grabbed a key rebound on Arizona's next-to-last possession.
Championship Blueprint: Keep crushing the perimeter battle. Rebounding is usually the biggest strength for the Musketeers, but they barely beat Florida State on the glass and finished minus-11 against Arizona. However, between the aforementioned three-point defense and their own success from downtown (26-of-57; 45.6 percent), they're simply winning games by avoiding turnovers (10.3 per game) and raining threes.
7. Florida Gators
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What We've Learned: Florida has a ton of weapons. When the Gators lost John Egbunu to a torn ACL in mid-February, that felt like the end of the line. Oregon could survive losing Chris Boucher because it had guys like Tyler Dorsey, Dillon Brooks and Jordan Bell who could still carry the load. The Gators didn't have any such guys.
Or so we thought. Devin Robinson was a stud on the tournament's opening weekend, dropping 24 on ETSU before recording a double-double against Virginia. KeVaughn Allen struggled in the first two games before exploding for 35 against Wisconsin. Thanks to Chris Chiozza's buzzer-beating three-pointer in overtime, seven different Gators scored at least seven points against the Badgers. Florida will beat you with defense, but it's deep on offense, too.
Most Outstanding Player Candidate: To be determined. With so many guys making significant contributions, it's difficult to name an early front-runner for this honor, should Florida win three more games. It's probably Robinson by a hair, but given how important defense is to this team's success, maybe it should go to Kevarrius Hayes. He hasn't scored in double figures yet in the tournament, but he has seven steals and four blocks as the primary interior defender for the Gators.
X-Factor: Two-point defense. In the first two games, Florida suffocated the opposition, holding ETSU and UVA to a combined 40.3 percent from inside the arc. Both teams struggled to score in what ended up being easy wins for the Gators. But Wisconsin shot 55.3 percent from two-point range and nearly sent Florida packing. Without Egbunu, that two-point D was our biggest concern with Florida coming into the tournament, and it reared its ugly head in the Sweet 16.
Championship Blueprint: Do it with defense. The offense is a bit inconsistent, but Florida ranks top five in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. Its ability to defend the perimeter, block shots and force turnovers is second to none. If the Gators could just close out possessions with defensive rebounds at a rate better than the national average, they'd easily be No. 1 in ADE. As Virginia showed in its 65-39 loss, scoring against the Gators can be a nightmare. And we've always heard that defense wins championships.
6. South Carolina Gamecocks
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What We've Learned: South Carolina knows how to score. There's no sense in sugarcoating it: The Gamecocks were downright awful on offense for most of the 2016-17 regular season. Even after putting on a scoring clinic against both Marquette and Duke, they entered the Sweet 16 ranked 306th in the nation in effective field-goal percentage—the worst of any team that made the NCAA tournament.
But, out of nowhere, guys like PJ Dozier and Rakym Felder have become efficient scorers as secondary weapons behind Sindarius Thornwell. As a result, the Gamecocks are averaging 83.7 points per game in the tourney. Not too shabby for a team that only topped 80 points in a contest eight times during the regular season.
Most Outstanding Player Candidate: Thornwell. The 2017 SEC Player of the Year is well on his way to becoming the 2017 NCAA M.O.P. The senior is averaging 25.7 points, 7.7 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 2.0 steals while shooting 45.5 percent from three-point range. He carried this team for the entire year and has now scored at least 15 points in 18 consecutive games.
X-Factor: Free-throw line. Save for hitting 27-of-32 from the charity stripe against Duke, South Carolina has not been a great free-throw shooting team this season. But its smothering defense often results in a lot of whistles on both ends of the floor. When the Gamecocks are able to defend without committing too many fouls, they've proved they can beat teams like Marquette and Baylor by 20-point margins.
Championship Blueprint: Don't change anything. South Carolina has at least 10 combined steals and blocks in each tournament game. It has won the rebounding battle in each contest. It is running the offense through Thornwell as much as possible and investing on every defensive possession. This is not the same Gamecocks team that we watched score 53 points in an immediate exit from the 2017 SEC tournament, and this version of head coach Frank Martin's bunch could win the national championship.
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5. Oregon Ducks
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What We've Learned: Oregon can win without Chris Boucher. When the three-point shooting, shot-blocking phenom tore his ACL in the Pac-12 tournament, a lot of people immediately wrote off the Ducks. After all, both Cincinnati in 2000 (Kenyon Martin) and Kansas in 2014 (Joel Embiid) went from title contenders to second-round flameouts after late-season injuries to indispensable big men.
But in Tyler Dorsey, Dillon Brooks and Jordan Bell, Oregon still has enough weapons to get the job done. The Ducks weren't exactly dominant in one-possession victories over Rhode Island and Michigan, but they've been great on the glass, aggressive on defense and lethal from three-point range. It's a shame they didn't get into the tournament at 100 percent, because even at 80-85 percent strength, the Ducks are a threat to win it all.
Most Outstanding Player Candidate: Dorsey. Oregon's sophomore combo guard has been given the nickname "Mr. March," and for good reason. Dorsey has scored at least 20 points in six consecutive games since the start of the Pac-12 tournament. He's shooting an incredible 11-of-16 (68.8 percent) from three-point range through the first three rounds of the Big Dance. He also made a great play for the game-winning bucket against Michigan, stopping on a dime mid-drive for a clutch finger roll.
X-Factor: Casey Benson. Save for the occasional steal, Oregon's sixth man is a defensive liability who doesn't rebound and isn't much involved in the offense. When he does shoot, though, it's usually a good thing. Benson shot 52.3 percent (23-of-44) from three-point range in Pac-12 play and has made at least two buckets in each NCAA tournament game.
Championship Blueprint: Defend without fouling. The Ducks have done a great job with the "without fouling" part, limiting Rhode Island and Michigan to a combined 15 free-throw attempts in the last two rounds. But they need to do a better job of defending. Michigan refused to take advantage of what has been lackluster defense by the Ducks without Boucher, attempting just 27 two-pointers against 31 threes. Every team they'll face the rest of the way could crush them with two-pointers if they don't remember how to block shots and protect the paint.
4. Gonzaga Bulldogs
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What We've Learned: Gonzaga's defense is for real. The Zags finished the year with outstanding defensive efficiency numbers, but how much of that was just life in the West Coast Conference? After all, in five nonconference games against Arizona, Florida, Iowa State, Tennessee and Washington, the Bulldogs allowed a good-not-great 352 points on 348 possessions.
However, in five of six halves thus far in the tournament—the 53-point second half they allowed to Northwestern was a major outlier—their D has been top notch. South Dakota State shot 31.0 percent from the field against them. West Virginia was worse at 26.7 percent. And even with Northwestern scoring almost at will in the second half, Gonzaga finished that game with seven steals and seven blocks.
Most Outstanding Player Candidate: Jordan Mathews. Nigel Williams-Goss was Gonzaga's MVP all season long, but he struggled in two of the first three NCAA tournament games. Zach Collins was great against SDSU and Northwestern, but he had a nightmare of a game against West Virginia's pressure. All the while, Mathews keeps on trucking. He has drained three triples in each game and is averaging 14.3 points and 5.0 rebounds. Without the graduate transfer from California, Gonzaga would be done.
X-Factor: Defensive rebounding. In those aforementioned five games against major-conference opponents, Gonzaga allowed an average of 16.6 offensive rebounds. That bugaboo reared its ugly head in the Sweet 16 against West Virginia, as the Mountaineers grabbed 19 offensive boards. Gonzaga's ability (or lack thereof) to end defensive possessions may determine how much longer this run lasts.
Championship Blueprint: Remember how to shoot. In three West Coast Conference tournament games, Gonzaga shot 53.5 percent from the field and made at least 50 percent of its shots in each game. Through three NCAA tournament games, the Zags are shooting 41.6 percent and have yet to top 44.1 percent in a game. The free-throw shooting (52-of-86; 60.5 percent) has been just as awful. But if Williams-Goss (39 points on 42 field-goal attempts) would get into some sort of positive rhythm, the defense could take care of the rest.
3. Kentucky Wildcats
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What We've Learned: Kentucky doesn't even need Edrice "Bam" Adebayo to beat title contenders. The big man did play a key role in the Sweet 16 by drawing three of the five fouls on UCLA's Thomas Welsh. However, Adebayo didn't score a single point until a dunk in the final four minutes. He didn't record an offensive rebound in 37 minutes either. Yet, Kentucky cruised to an 11-point win.
That's because De'Aaron Fox and Malik Monk combined for 60 points, abusing UCLA's interpretation of defense over and over again. Fox got to the lane whenever he wanted, which opened up space for Monk to start raining three-pointers in the second half. It was one heck of an offensive clinic against a team that had been putting on that type of show for the past four months.
Most Outstanding Player Candidate: Fox. Kentucky was the Malik Monk show for much of the regular season, but Fox has been its singular star in March. The world fell in love with him during his career-high 39-point performance in the Sweet 16 against UCLA—also an NCAA tournament single-game scoring record by a freshman—but he's now averaging 22.4 points over his last seven games. Monk might pop off for 47 points like he did in his first game against North Carolina, but Fox is the consistent source of greatness.
X-Factor: Dominique Hawkins. Coming into the NCAA tournament, Kentucky's senior point guard was a career 25.2 percent three-point shooter. But he is 5-of-8 from downtown in the dance, averaging 8.3 points per game. He's not a guy the Wildcats are usually counting on for buckets, so it's a bonus when he's getting them.
Championship Blueprint: Stay committed on defense and let the freshman backcourt do its thing. The Wildcats have won 14 consecutive games and have done most of it with defense. They have recorded at least five blocks and five steals in each tournament game and have done a great job of denying what each individual opponent most wants to do. As long as Kentucky keeps holding its opponents below their season scoring averages, Fox and Monk can take care of the rest on offense.
2. North Carolina Tar Heels
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What We've Learned: North Carolina is dadgum good at opening up an early lead. After watching No. 1 seeds Villanova and Gonzaga struggle in their openers, the Tar Heels jumped out to a 42-22 lead in the first 15 minutes against the No. 16 Texas Southern Tigers. They led the No. 8 Arkansas Razorbacks 26-11 around the same juncture in the game and needed less than 10 minutes to take a 30-14 lead against the No. 4 Butler Bulldogs.
However, neither the Razorbacks nor the Bulldogs rolled over and died as North Carolina refused to put them away. This team has the talent to blow out anyone, but it needs to do a better job of keeping its foot on the gas. Allow a team like Kansas or Gonzaga to hang around and the Tar Heels will be sorry.
Most Outstanding Player Candidate: Justin Jackson. A possible lottery pick in a few months, Jackson is so much more than just a three-point shooter with a silky smooth mid-range floater. Yes, he's averaging 20 points per game and shooting 45.5 percent from downtown, but he's also accounting for 6.7 rebounds and 4.3 assists. In the second-round win over Arkansas, he had eight boards, five assists and five steals, pacing the Tar Heels to victory on what was a cold-shooting night for the entire team (38.1 percent from the field).
X-Factor: Frontcourt fouls. North Carolina made quick work of Butler, thanks in large part to Luke Maye's first career double-double (16 points, 12 rebounds). But the main reason the sophomore power forward played so much is because Isaiah Hicks fouled out in just 17 minutes of action. Both Maye and backup center Tony Bradley have had foul troubles of their own throughout the year. And heaven knows the referees have been quick with the whistle in this tournament. This could eventually be an issue.
Championship Blueprint: Pound the paint and own the glass. With the possible exception of Gonzaga's three-headed frontcourt, no team has the horses to deal with North Carolina's stable of big men. With Maye emerging as a stretch 4 with outstanding rebounding instincts, the Tar Heels have four big men capable of taking over a game over at a moment's notice. This is the No. 1 offensive rebounding team in the country for a reason.
1. Kansas Jayhawks
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What We've Learned: Kansas cannot be contained. UC Davis entered its game against Kansas allowing 57.3 points in its last four games, only to give up 100 to the Jayhawks. Michigan State had one of the better defenses in the country and had held its last seven opponents to an average of 64.9 points. Kansas effortlessly scored 90 on the Spartans. And against Purdue, which entered the Sweet 16 ranked 17th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, Kansas ran as much clock as possible on every possession for the final six minutes and still scored 98 points.
That's an average of 96.0 points per game through the first three rounds. Even UCLA fans who have been watching high-octane offense all season long have to be impressed by that number.
Most Outstanding Player Candidate: Frank Mason III. One could easily make a case for Josh Jackson or Devonte' Graham in this spot. However, the runaway favorite for the Wooden Award is averaging 22.7 points, 6.7 assists and just 1.7 turnovers in the tournament while pacing this unstoppable offense. Mason has now scored at least 20 points in nine of his last 10 games and feels like a lock to continue lighting up the scoreboard.
X-Factor: Landen Lucas. The impact this big man makes for the Jayhawks is rarely captured in the box score. Lucas has just six double-doubles all season and was the only member of the primary six-man rotation who didn't score in double figures in the win over Purdue. But his presence in the paint is the most important thing for the Jayhawks moving forward, as they don't have much of a backup plan if he's getting abused on the glass.
Championship Blueprint: Ride the hot hands. Some teams are entirely dependent on one or two scorers, but Kansas has five shooters who are capable of catching fire, with each shooting 37.9 percent or better from downtown this season. To this point in the tournament, all five have been great—especially Graham, who is 13-of-22 with at least four made triples in each game. But eventually one or two will likely go cold. As long as those aren't the Jayhawks taking all of the shots, there are too many options to imagine this team ever struggling to score again.
Live streams for all games available at NCAA.com.
Stats courtesy of KenPom.com and Sports-Reference.com.
Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter: @kerrancejames.
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