NCAA Tournament 2017: Low Seeds with Best Chance at a Deep Run After 1st Round

It's one thing for a low seed to pull an upset in the whirlwind first round of the NCAA tournament, but it's quite another for it to chalk up a second or third upset after things have settled down a bit. Middle Tennessee, Arkansas-Little Rock and Stephen F. Austin recorded stunning first-round victories last year, only to be dismissed in the second round.

But some surprise teams figure to reach the Sweet 16, and a few may advance even further. Last season, two teams with double-digit seeds (No. 10 Syracuse and No. 11 Gonzaga) made it out of the first weekend, and the Orange advanced all the way to the Final Four.

In fact, at least one team seeded 10th or worse has reached the Sweet 16 in each of the past nine years, and a double-digit seed joined the Elite Eight in four of those nine seasons. George Mason and Virginia Commonwealth got all the way to the Final Four as No. 11 seeds in 2006 and 2011, and LSU made it to the final weekend from the No. 11 spot in 1986.

So who will exceed its seed this season?

We limited our pool of potential surprise teams to those seeded seventh or worse.

To determine the teams with chances to advance the furthest, we looked at recent results, possible matchups ahead, star players who could carry said teams and whether their coaches are capable of pushing them beyond expectations. We tried to get as many double-digit seeds as possible on this list while looking for the true long shots.

The slides are in ascending order of the team's likelihood of advancing deep into the tournament; the last team listed has the best chance to get to the Elite Eight or better.

No. 9 Michigan State

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History practically requires Michigan State to be on this list.

The Spartans reached the Sweet 16 in seven of the past nine seasons and the Final Four in three of those seven years. Two years ago, Michigan State got to the Final Four as a No. 7 seed, and Tom Izzo coaxed the Spartans to the national semifinals as a No. 5 seed in 2010.

Last season's inexplicable first-round loss to Middle Tennessee can be tossed aside as an aberration to the basic premise that Izzo knows how to get his teams ready for the NCAA tournament.

This season, Izzo is relying on a group laden with freshmen instead of the veterans who usually represent Michigan State in the postseason. But this team has improved steadily since the start of the season.

The Spartans had their best performance of the year in the opening round against Miami. Not only did Michigan State win the game by 20 points, but it showed maturity by coming back after the Hurricanes scored the first 10 points of the game.

Freshmen frontcourt players Miles Bridges and Nick Ward are averaging 18.4 points and 7.9 rebounds and 17.7 points and 9.6 rebounds, respectively, over the past seven games.

The Spartans' next game against Kansas will be a major test, and they'll need some breaks to win it. But the Midwest Region would open up if they can somehow get past the Jayhawks.

No. 11 Southern California

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Picking Southern California to win several games in the NCAA tournament is a risky business. The Trojans can look great one day and terrible the next in coach Andy Enfield's freewheeling offense. They can even look great in one half and lousy in the other. That is what happened against SMU, a team USC beat for the second time this season in Friday's first round.

You can't ignore the fact USC beat UCLA by eight points in January and that the Trojans ended SMU's 16-game winning streak just two days after dismissing Providence in the First Four. Of course, you also can't ignore the fact USC lost by 22 points to Utah, 23 to Oregon and 32 to UCLA.

The Trojans are long, athletic and bold, with four players capable of taking over a game. Bennie Boatwright is a 6'10" forward who can make three-pointers, and 6'11" Chimezie Metu is as athletic as anyone his size in the tournament. Guards Jordan McLaughlin and Elijah Stewart are the other players capable of putting up big numbers at any time. Stewart, for example, went scoreless against Providence, then tallied 22 against SMU.

USC can match Baylor's athleticism in the next round, too. The biggest thing in the Trojans' favor, though, is that the Bears are not the team they were for the first three months of the season. Baylor was 5-6 in its final 11 games leading up to the NCAA tournament, and it did not resemble a world-beater in an opening-round win over New Mexico State.

If the Trojans get past the Bears, they might face Duke in the next round. USC could lose to the Blue Devils by 30 points, but it is also talented and athletic enough to win that game.

No. 11 Xavier

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Sometimes one player can carry a team to unexpected postseason success. Steph Curry took 10th-seeded Davidson to the Elite Eight in 2008 before it lost to top-seeded Kansas by two. Kemba Walker carried No. 3-seeded Connecticut all the way to the 2011 NCAA title, and Shabazz Napier led seventh-seeded UConn to the national championship in 2014.

Guards who get hot in the postseason can be difficult to stop, and Xavier has one such player in Trevon Bluiett.

Bluiett scored 40 points at Cincinnati this season, but what is more significant is that he averaged 20.6 points over his last five games. In Thursday's 76-65 victory over Maryland, Bluiett scored 14 points in a span of 7:18, helping the Musketeers turn a five-point deficit into an eight-point lead. Twelve of his points—including each of his last nine—in that stretch came on three-pointers, the first of which tied the score at 50.

Ranked as high as seventh in the Associated Press poll early in the season, the Musketeers slumped badly late, losing six straight games from Feb. 11 to March 1. But Bluiett was sidelined with an injury for two of those games and much of a third.

The Musketeers have bounced back to win four of their last five games, with the only loss a three-point defeat against Creighton in the Big East tournament semifinals.

Xavier's second-round game is against a Florida State team that has struggled lately. Though the Seminoles tied for second in the rugged Atlantic Coast Conference, they went 4-4 in their final eight games before the NCAA tournament. They did not look any better in their 86-80 victory over No. 14-seeded Florida Gulf Coast in the first round.

If it gets by Florida State, Xavier would likely face second-seeded Arizona, which shared the Pac-12 regular-season title and won the conference tournament under former Xavier coach Sean Miller.

The Wildcats, however, rank only 31st nationally in Ken Pomeroy's adjusted defensive efficiency, and Miller has been unable to get his teams over the hump and into the Final Four. He took Xavier to the Elite Eight once and got Arizona to that plateau three times without a victory.

No. 12 Middle Tennessee

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Middle Tennessee's 81-72 victory over No. 5-seeded Minnesota was no fluke. The 12th-seeded Blue Raiders led by 17 points with less than 12 minutes left before the Golden Gophers made it look closer.

Middle Tennessee will not be intimidated by the stage or the opponent. The Blue Raiders were a No. 15 seed when they stunned second-seeded Michigan State in the first round of last year's NCAA tournament, and this season's squad is better.

Giddy Potts and Reggie Upshaw, the top two scorers from last season's Middle Tennessee team, are back, and the Blue Raiders added JaCorey Williams, an Arkansas transfer who leads the team in scoring this season.

All three—plus Brandon Walters—reached double figures against Minnesota. Middle Tennessee doesn't depend on the three-point shot as much as it did last season, but it made seven of its 13 attempts from long range in the opener.

The Blue Raiders have won 11 games in a row and 21 of their last 22. Their 23-point victory over Vanderbilt and 15-point road win over Mississippi demonstrate what this team can do.

Middle Tennessee is more than capable of beating its next opponent, Butler, which has lost two of its last three games. If the Blue Raiders win that one, they would likely face North Carolina. If Middle Tennessee can avoid getting overwhelmed in the paint by the bigger, stronger Tar Heels, it has an outside chance in that game, too.

No. 10 Wichita State

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Wichita State has won 31 games, and we still don't know if the Shockers are any good. Their only win against a team in this year's NCAA tournament came in Friday's first round, when they knocked off seventh-seeded Dayton 64-58.

They piled up victories against teams in the Missouri Valley Conference, which was as weak this season as it has been in years. Wichita State lost its early-season nonconference games against quality foes, losing by 10 to Louisville, by five to Michigan State and by 17 to Oklahoma State.

So how in the world can the Shockers hold their own in a second-round game against Kentucky?

Two things to keep in mind.

First, Wichita State is a much better team now than it was in December. The Shockers have won 16 games in a row, and they have won those games by an average margin of 21.5 points. Illinois State, which tied Wichita State for the MVC regular-season title, lost by 20 and 41 points the last two times the teams met.

Second, even though Wichita State no longer has star players like Cleanthony Early, Fred VanVleet or Ron Baker, it still has Gregg Marshall calling the shots. If anyone can come up with a defense that can slow down the Kentucky offense, Marshall is the guy.

If the Shockers get past the Wildcats, comparisons to the their 2013 team, which was seeded ninth and reached the Final Four, will be inevitable.

No. 11 Rhode Island

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This selection is about matchups. No. 3-seeded Oregon can run past almost any team that plays fast and loose. Iona found that out in the first round when the Ducks displayed their speed and athleticism in a lopsided victory.

Rhode Island is a different animal. For one thing, the Rams are on a roll, having won nine straight games, most of them by decisive margins. More significant is the way the Rams play. They prefer a slower, grind-it-out style, which is exactly what is required to neutralize Oregon's athleticism.

The 72 points Creighton scored in its first-round loss to the Rams was only the third time in the past 10 games an opponent scored more than 63 points against Rhode Island, which has yielded just 61.9 points per game over that 10-game stretch.

Rhode Island has two standouts capable of big things. Guard E.C. Matthews averaged 18.4 points over the past five games, regaining the offensive touch he had before tearing his ACL in last season's opener. Hassan Martin, the Rams' 6'7" inside presence, is averaging 15.4 points and 10.1 rebounds over his last seven games and has the athleticism to bother the Ducks' long, quick big men.

An upset of Oregon would put the Rams into the Sweet 16 against Louisville or Michigan. That would be a tougher challenge, but it's one Rhode Island might be able to handle considering how well it is playing at the moment.

No. 8 Wisconsin

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Wisconsin fields the same starting five that got the Badgers to the Sweet 16 last year, and little bothers this experienced, poised team.

Wisconsin finished tied for second in the Big Ten and reached the conference tournament final, yet it was still seeded only eighth in the NCAA tournament. That came as a surprise to many observers, as noted by David Hayes of the Badger Herald, Wisconsin's student newspaper.

What it means is that Villanova will face an unusually difficult second-round challenge for a team that owns the No. 1 overall seed.

The Badgers didn't finish the season well, going just 4-6 in their final 10 games leading into the NCAA tournament. But their showing in the Big Ten tournament as well as their performance in the opening round against Virginia Tech suggest they have recovered from that slump.

Wisconsin guard Bronson Koenig, the hero of the Badgers' second-round win over Xavier in last year's NCAA tournament, has been hot lately, hitting 26-of-55 three-points shots (47.3 percent) over the past six games. His eight three-pointers and 28 points were critical against Virginia Tech.

What makes Wisconsin a threat against Villanova, though, is that it has two skilled low-post players in Ethan Happ and Nigel Hayes who can take advantage of the Wildcats' lack of size in the paint.

The Badgers will still be underdogs against Villanova, but if they can pull off that upset, they would be in good position to reach the Elite Eight. Their Sweet 16 opponent would be either Florida or Virginia, teams Wisconsin wouldn't have much trouble beating.

No. 7 Michigan

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It's shame a Michigan had to face 10th-seeded Oklahoma State in the first round, because both teams were capable of advancing further than their seeds suggested. But the Wolverines survived 92-91 to continue their hot late-season run.

Michigan has won six in a row and 11 of its last 13, and the Wolverines must be thinking they are riding the train of destiny after beating Illinois, Purdue, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Oklahoma State in succession since their harrowing airplane incident.

There is nothing magical about how the Wolverines take care of the ball or shoot from long range, though. They lead the nation in fewest turnovers, committing just 9.3 per game. And despite the fast pace of their opening-round game, they committed just four turnovers. They also made 16 of their 29 three-point shots, including 11 of 15 in the second half.

Michigan may not duplicate that shooting performance against Louisville's excellent defense, which is ranked seventh nationally in Ken Pomeroy's adjusted defensive efficiency, but the Cardinals are not the offensive machine Oklahoma State is.

And the Wolverines have several players who are on fire. Zak Irvin has scored at least 12 points in each of his last seven games, hitting 58.1 percent of his shots in that span. D.J. Wilson has scored 17 points or more in three of his past four games. But the star has been point guard Derrick Walton Jr., who in his last three games has scored 29, 22 and 26 points while averaging 9.0 assists and 5.3 rebounds per game and hitting 13 of his 26 three-point shots (50 percent) and 22 of his 23 free throws (95.7 percent).

Michigan is rolling. It matches up well with Louisville and might even be favored in a potential third-round game against Oregon or Rhode Island.