March Madness 2017: Complete Odds and Final Four Picks for NCAA Tournament
Ladies and gentlemen, it's time to fill out those brackets.
March Madness is finally here and college basketball fans around the country are rejoicing as the most exciting month in college sports is here.
While every team in the NCAA tournament has aspirations of winning a national championship, the reality is that only four or five teams have a legitimate shot of going all the way.
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After all, there's a reason why a No. 16-seeded team has never beaten a No. 1 seed in the first round. Every team, mathematically speaking, has a puncher's chance of going to the Final Four and going on to win, but some teams odds are much higher than others.
Who will advance to this year's Final Four? By the end of this month, we will know for certain. But for now, all we can do is predict.
| Villanova | 8-5 |
| Duke | 5-2 |
| SMU | 8-1 |
| Virginia | 8-1 |
| Baylor | 9-1 |
| Florida | 10-1 |
| Wisconsin | 12-1 |
| South Carolina | 25-1 |
| Marquette | 40-1 |
| Virginia Tech | 50-1 |
| Providence | 66-1 |
| USC | 66-1 |
| UNC-Wilmington | 150-1 |
| East Tennessee State | 200-1 |
| Mount St. Mary's | 200-1 |
| New Mexico State | 200-1 |
| New Orleans | 200-1 |
| Troy | 200-1 |
The Pick: No. 2 Duke
Top-seeded Villanova is a real threat to repeat as national champions, but it's hard to see the Wildcats beating their biggest competition, Duke, in the East Region.
The Blue Devils are coming off a very impressive ACC tournament that they won, even though they have had a very inconsistent season. From bad play, disciplinary problems and head coach Mike Krzyzewski being sidelined with back issues, the list goes on and on.
But boy did they look good in the conference tournament. Even Krzyzewski seemed to think so, per Matt Norlander of CBSSports.com:
"We've had a heck of year, and were at our best in the last month once we got everyone together. How the team compares to everyone, the committee will do a good job. We'll go wherever they put us, and we're OK with whatever seed. We haven't paid any attention to that. We'll just let [it] happen.
"
Picking against the defending champions in favor of the nation's most hyped, yet at times, overrated team is a risk, but if the Blue Devils play the way they did against North Carolina in the conference tournament, no team, not even Villanova, can stop them.
| Kansas | 11-5 |
| Louisville | 7-2 |
| Oregon | 4-1 |
| Purdue | 5-1 |
| Iowa State | 10-1 |
| Michigan | 12-1 |
| Oklahoma State | 16-1 |
| Creighton | 28-1 |
| Miami | 28-1 |
| Michigan State | 28-1 |
| Rhode Island | 33-1 |
| Nevada | 100-1 |
| Vermont | 100-1 |
| Iona | 200-1 |
| Jacksonville State | 200-1 |
| NC Central | 200-1 |
| UC Davis | 200-1 |
The Pick: No. 1 Kansas
Toward the end of the regular season and heading into postseason play, the Jayhawks were considered the No. 1 team in the nation, ahead of the likes of Gonzaga, UNC and even Villanova.
But after a shocking 85-82 loss in the Big 12 tournament to TCU, questions were raised concerning the legitimacy of this team. There are some teams in the Midwest that may cause Kansas headaches, but the only team that can stop Kansas from reaching the Final Four is themselves and its poor perimeter defense, which ranks among the worst in the nation.
Per Mike Hume of The Washington Post, Kansas' defense could be their downfall.
"KU does not defend the three-point line particularly well. Opponents are shooting 35.7 percent against the Jayhawks from long-range this year, which ranks 212th in the nation. This was a key point in their losses to Indiana and Iowa State this season. Even worse, they’re allowing opponents to snag 30.4 percent of available offensive rebounds and get the ball stolen at an alarming rate — almost once every 10 possessions, placing them 294th out of 351 teams (the fourth-worst mark of any team in the tournament). Those second-chance points can help keep even a poor-shooting club in the game against a Jayhawks team that is almost always more talented than its opponents (see: TCU’s 12 steals and 10 offensive rebounds in the Big 12 tournament).
"
If Kansas can commit to playing better perimeter defense and not just rely on fast-break points and the team's athleticism to win basketball games, there's no doubt that the Jayhawks will make the Final Four. The question is, are they ready to go to war every single game? I think this is the year Bill Self kicks his young, talented team into gear and finally contend for a title.
| North Carolina | 5-4 |
| Kentucky | 11-4 |
| UCLA | 5-1 |
| Butler | 10-1 |
| Wichita State | 10-1 |
| Cincinnati | 14-1 |
| Dayton | 28-1 |
| Minnesota | 28-1 |
| Middle Tennessee State | 40-1 |
| Arkansas | 50-1 |
| Seton Hall | 50-1 |
| Wake Forest | 75-1 |
| Kansas State | 100-1 |
| Kent State | 200-1 |
| Northern Kentucky | 200-1 |
| Texas Southern | 200-1 |
| Winthrop | 200-1 |
The Pick: No. 4 Butler
Butler? Over UNC, Kentucky and UCLA? That's right, you read that correctly. The Butler Bulldogs are heading to the Final Four on another Cinderella run.
Only this time, they're not the underdogs that you expect, as this is arguably the most talented Butler team in program history, and the team doesn't have to rely on the genius of former head coach Brad Stevens to help carry them.
Butler was ranked No. 11 in both the AP and coaches polls heading into postseason play and has amassed a 23-8 overall record. Additionally, the Bulldogs have proven to be giant killers this season, which was evident when they defeated the No. 1 overall seed, Villanova, not once, but twice during the regular season.
The Bulldogs have the fourth-best odds in the region, trailing UNC, Kentucky and UCLA. And because of their fourth seed, the earliest they would play against the upper echelon of teams would come in the Sweet 16 against UNC if both teams win out.
I don't know about you, but the Tar Heels looked very vulnerable against Duke last week in the ACC tournament and could be in for a rough March if they don't get their act together. Let's watch some Butler perform some magic again, shall we?
| Gonzaga | 8-5 |
| Arizona | 2-1 |
| West Virginia | 11-2 |
| Florida State | 8-1 |
| Saint Mary's | 10-1 |
| Notre Dame | 14-1 |
| Maryland | 22-1 |
| Northwestern | 50-1 |
| Vanderbilt | 50-1 |
| VCU | 50-1 |
| Xavier | 50-1 |
| Florida Gulf Coast | 100-1 |
| Princeton | 125-1 |
| Bucknell | 150-1 |
| North Dakota | 200-1 |
| South Dakota State | 200-1 |
The Pick: No. 2 Arizona
As good as No. 1 seed Gonzaga has been this season and as fun as it is to watch them play, the Bulldogs won't beat out the Wildcats from Arizona in a battle for the last spot in this year's Final Four.
Sean Miller is one of the most underrated head coaches in college basketball. He turned Arizona's program right around over the past few years and has turned them from an emerging basketball school into a force to be reckoned with. He knows how to coach, he knows how to win, and more importantly, Miller knows how to get revenge.
In a loss to UCLA last month, Bruins head coach Steve Alford called a timeout in the last few seconds in his team's win to set up his defense in a game that the Bruins won handily. Seeing that as a disrespectful move on Alford's part, Miller returned the favor when the two teams met again last week in an 86-75 victory by calling a timeout with under a second left in the game, per Jeff Eisenberg of Yahoo Sports.
"Of course no amount of deception could hide the real reason behind the bizarre way Friday night’s Pac-12 semifinal ended. When Miller theatrically signaled for a timeout with 0.9 seconds to go in Arizona’s 86-75 victory over UCLA, it was his way of sticking it to Alford, of getting back at the man he felt had been intentionally disrespectful to Arizona only two weeks earlier.
Arizona's timeout may have been petty and unnecessary, but Miller and his players enjoyed every second of it, laughing, clapping and cheering in their huddle as UCLA players milled around their own bench and stared in stunned disbelief.
"
This is next-level pettiness, and I for one love every bit of it. This is March Madness; there is no love lost at this point of the season. Arizona has a very talented squad led by freshman sensation Lauri Markkanen, but more importantly, it has Miller, who will guide his team to the promised land in search of a national championship.
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