NCAA Bracket 2017: The Secret Formula for Picking a Winner

Picking a perfect bracket is practically impossible. But as long as winning your NCAA tournament pool isn't contingent on selecting every game correctly, you've come to the right place for advice.

For some participants, March Madness is the culmination of four months spent watching every game and team possible. It's finally time for that acquired knowledge to shine.

But in many other cases, this is the first time someone has cared about college basketball this year—or perhaps ever. And that's OK! We'll provide a bit of basic guidance on how to complete a bracket, which can look like a daunting task.

Now if you're wondering about my credentials and why you should trust me, when I was in fifth grade, I pulled off an upset against a once-thought-unbeatable teacher. True story.

In all seriousness, though, nobody giving advice will be perfect. We're passing along the most important historical trends with pertinent information from the current season in hopes of helping you claim your pool.

Good luck.

Sign up and play Bleacher Report's Bracket Challenge now for a chance to win the B/R Ultimate Sports Trip to four events of your choice. Click here for B/R's Printable Bracket.

For the Uninitiated: Pick the No. 1 Seed Early

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The most fundamental part of basketball is dribbling. The most basic part of picking a bracket is choosing the No. 1 seed early.

Perhaps you're only participating because the office has a contest with a prize, or you're bored. And again, that's OK! Know this first.

In 128 tries, the 16th seed has never defeated the top team in a region. Then, consider that 86.7 percent of the time, the No. 1 has reached the Sweet 16. No seed line has better odds of reaching the third round entirely intact.

There's no completely sure thing in the NCAA tournament, but leaning on the No. 1 seed is as close as you'll get.

...But Don't Rely on the Chalk

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Generally speaking, the top seeds—the smallest numbers—are your best choices. Last season, 19 of 32 higher-ranked teams won in the first round, 11 of 16 advanced through the second round and all Elite Eight qualifiers were the chalk.

If you're going for "not last," going strictly with the higher seed is a decent option.

However, a pool victory won't happen that way. It's rare for the Nos. 1, 2, 3 and 4 seeds to all reach the Sweet 16 in one region—let alone four. Plus, multiple double-digit seeds have reached the second weekend in 23 of 32 tournaments since the Big Dance expanded in 1985.

Top-six seeds represent the strong majority of Sweet 16 teams. Sprinkle in a couple of double-digit sleepers, and you're following the blueprint history suggests.

Beware of the 6/11 Upsets

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Plural. Yes, plural.

During the last 12 tournaments, at least one No. 6 seed has exited March Madness in the first round. In eight of those years—including the last three—multiple have immediately lost. Arizona, Seton Hall and Texas each fell last season.

Cincinnati, Creighton, Maryland and SMU are looking to avoid a similar fate this season, but it probably won't happen.

Additionally, in the five years the First Four has included a play-in game for the No. 11 seed, the winner of that matchup has advanced to the round of 32 four times. Cincinnati and SMU are both awaiting a result from a First Four clash.

Pick the 5/12 Upset, but Don't Fall in Love

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UNC-Wilmington is exciting! Princeton went undefeated in Ivy League action! Nevada won the Mountain West! Middle Tennessee beat Michigan State last year and is back for more!

The commotion surrounding those teams is merited.

No seed line has a better percentage of upset wins than the No. 12, especially over the last five years. During that span, the seed is a combined 10-10. And perhaps the greatest fact is that since 1985, 28 of the 32 years have featured a 5/12 upset.

Success beyond the round of 32 is nearly nonexistent, though. Only Missouri in 2002 reached the Elite Eight.

Make sure your bracket includes at least one 5/12 upset, but don't fall in love too quickly. Your heart will likely be broken.

A No. 2 Seed Probably Won't Survive the Opening Weekend

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An upset involving the No. 15 seed is rare, though Middle Tennessee (2016), Florida Gulf Coast (2013), Lehigh (2012) and Norfolk State (2012) each accomplished it during the last five years.

Even if you're not feeling a first-round exit, be careful about assuming each No. 2 seed will continue to advance.

Xavier lost to Wisconsin last year. Kansas and Virginia fell in 2015, following Kansas and Villanova in 2014. Notre Dame and Villanova lost in 2011 and 2010, respectively. Not since 2009 has every No. 2 survived the opening weekend.

Properly identifying the upset may provide two or three rounds of bonus points compared to everyone who leaned on the chalk.

Consider, but Don't Depend on History

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Gonzaga's NCAA history is problematic. Duke and Kentucky have enjoyed great tournament success. But those facts are merely part of a much larger equation.

Villanova is a perfect example of how history isn't a perfect indicator for or against success. Last year, head coach Jay Wright's team shook an ugly trend en route to winning the national championship. But in 2010, 2011, 2013, 2014 and 2015, the Wildcats bowed out during the first weekend.

So what are you supposed to make of that? For any 'Nova believers, it's that Wright ended the problem. For any doubters, it's simply a blip on the underperforming radar.

History matters, but the most important factors are all found with this season's team. While that may sound obvious, it's easy to forget when searching for a predictive edge.

Live with Your Gut

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For anyone who has played a bracket challenge before, we probably can agree that the worst person is the one who "almost picked that" winner in every upset.

Second-guessing is bound to happen since picking a perfect bracket is tremendously unlikely. So about that annoying matchup you're contemplating right now—the one that's been controlling your thoughts for 36 hours—which result would drive you more crazy about getting wrong?

Pick that one.

At worst, you missed on a toss-up, and you can deal with the internal disappointment. Besides, there are excellent odds someone else had a similar matchup turn out the exact same way.

But if you pegged the shocker, you didn't "almost" decide on one of the tournament's best surprises. Instead, you moved one step closer to winning the bracket—all thanks to your gut.

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Follow Bleacher Report writer David Kenyon on Twitter @Kenyon19_BR.