March Madness 2017: Dates, Predictions, TV Schedule and Bracket Analysis
The field of 68 teams that will vie for the 2017 NCAA men's basketball championship is set. Sunday, March 12, saw the finalization of conference championships and the selection of the at-large field that will do battle over the next three weeks.
You know, they should really think of a name for that. Something catchy. Perhaps even with some alliteration. That would be neat. (Oh, they did that? My b.)
Anyway, all that stuff still happened. Now it's time for basketball. Or, at least it will be in two days. For now, it's time to speculate wildly about the most predictable event in major sports.
TOP NEWS
NCAA Tournament Expansion Official 🚨
.png?w=256 "NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Championship")
UConn's STACKED Schedule ☠️
Report: Biggest Spenders in Men's CBB 🤑
With that in mind, here is a look at some predictions and analysis for all the madness that will happen in March. (You know, they should really come up with a name for tha—OK, the joke wasn't that funny the first time. I'll stop now.)
NCAA Tournament TV Schedule
| New Orleans vs. Mt. St. Mary's | Tuesday, March 14 | 6:40 p.m. | truTV |
| Wake Forest vs. Kansas State | Tuesday, March 14 | 9:10 p.m. | truTV |
| N.C. Central vs. UC Davis | Wednesday, March 15 | 6:40 p.m. | truTV |
| Providence vs. USC | Wednesday, March 15 | 9:10 p.m. | truTV |
| Notre Dame vs. Princeton | 12:15 p.m. | CBS |
| Virginia vs. UNC-Wilmington | 12:40 p.m. | truTV |
| Butler vs. Winthrop | 1:30 p.m. | TNT |
| Gonzaga vs. South Dakota St. | 2:00 p.m. | TBS |
| West Virginia vs. Bucknell | 2:45 p.m. | CBS |
| Florida vs. E. Tennessee St. | 3:10 p.m. | truTV |
| Minnesota vs. Middle Tenn St. | 4:00 p.m. | TNT |
| Northwestern vs. Vanderbilt | 4:30 p.m. | TBS |
| Maryland vs. Xavier | 6:50 p.m. | TNT |
| Villanova vs. Mt. St Mary's/New Orleans | 7:10 p.m. | CBS |
| St. Mary's (CA) vs. VCU | 7:20 p.m. | TBS |
| Purdue vs. Vermont | 7:27 p.m. | truTV |
| Florida State vs. Florida Gulf Coast | 9:20 p.m. | TNT |
| Wisconsin vs. Virginia Tech | 9:40 p.m. | CBS |
| Arizona vs. North Dakota | 9:50 p.m. | TBS |
| Iowa State vs. Nevada | 9:57 p.m. | truTV |
| Michigan vs. Oklahoma State | 12:15 p.m. | CBS |
| Baylor vs. New Mexico State | 12:40 p.m. | truTV |
| Arkansas vs. Seton Hall | 1:30 p.m. | TNT |
| Oregon vs. Iona | 2:00 p.m. | TBS |
| Louisville vs. Jacksonville St. | 2:45 p.m. | CBS |
| SMU vs. Providence/USC | 3:10 p.m. | truTV |
| North Carolina vs. Texas Southern | 4:00 p.m. | TNT |
| Creighton vs. Rhode Island | 4:30 p.m. | TBS |
| Kansas vs. NC-Central/UC Davis | 6:50 p.m. | TNT |
| Dayton vs. Wichita State | 7:10 p.m. | CBS |
| Duke vs. Troy | 7:20 p.m. | TBS |
| Cincinnati vs. Kansas St./Wake Forest | 7:27 p.m. | truTV |
| Miami (FL) vs. Michigan State | 9:20 p.m. | TNT |
| Kentucky vs. N. Kentukcy | 9:40 p.m. | CBS |
| South Carolina vs. Marquette | 9:50 p.m. | TBS |
| UCLA vs. Kent State | 9:57 p.m. | truTV |
Predictions
We're Not Going to Miss Markelle Fultz or Dennis Smith Jr.
Markelle Fultz and Dennis Smith Jr. are likely top-five NBA draft picks in June. They're among the most exciting lead guards in the nation, able to take over games for stretches with their marvelous offensive skills. Fultz is a smooth operator with shooting guard size and is probably going to be the No. 1 pick. Smith is one of the nation's quickest, most athletic guards, a blur who is nearly impossible to defend off the dribble.
Neither will be playing past this weekend. Fultz's Washington Huskies finished 9-22 and closed its season with 13 straight losses. Smith's N.C. State squad went 15-17 and limped out of the regular season with a lame-duck head coach.
In most seasons, having two of the nation's most talented freshmen miss the tournament would be disappointing. Ben Simmons' absence last year was certainly felt.
In 2017, we have more than enough elite young talent to not even notice Fultz or Smith's absence. Lonzo Ball, Josh Jackson, Jayson Tatum, Malik Monk, Lauri Markkanen and De'Aaron Fox are all potential top-10 picks who will be playing for national title contenders. This is perhaps the deepest and most talented freshman class of this century; guys such as Gonzaga's Zach Collins are somehow still going under the radar.
We already began to see the ascent of these players in conference tournaments. Fox walked away with SEC tournament MVP honors, while Tatum scored 19 points and took over down the stretch in Duke's ACC championship win over Notre Dame.
South Dakota State Is Going to Make Things Fun in Round 1
It's not often an 18-16 team from the Summit Conference is worth discussing. Almost never, actually. OK, let's be real here. Most of you had no idea that there was a Summit Conference, and if I told you that it was something I just made up, you would probably wouldn't be shocked.
But I am not joking, nor is South Dakota State your typical first-round patsy. The Jackrabbits are essentially a one-man show centered on Mike Daum, a breakout sophomore forward posting the best season you've never heard anything about until this week.
Daum, a 6'9" stretch forward, is averaging 25.3 points and 8.2 rebounds per game while shooting 51.6 percent overall and 41.6 percent from three. He scored 37 points in South Dakota State's upset win over Omaha in the Summit Conference championship game, and the Jackrabbits enter the tournament with six straight wins.
Ken Pomeroy ranks Daum as the nation's second-best offensive player. He's only going to get better as an upperclassman, and South Dakota State is going to be a quiet low-major force to watch over the next two years.
For now, it might put a little scare into Gonzaga before bowing out in the second half. C'mon, now. No. 16 seeds don't win. It just doesn't happen, and no one with an iota of intelligence will ever pick a No. 16 over a No. 1. Anything under a 15-point loss is worth the price of admission.
Bracket Analysis
North Carolina Will Glide Into the Elite Eight
If you want to know Tar Heel Nation's reaction when it saw the top half of the South, click this link. Then this one. Also this one, this one and this one.
What I'm saying is it's quite happy. No top seed got a better top-half draw than North Carolina, which should face little in the way of resistance on its way to an Elite Eight appearance. Butler is the region's No. 4 seed and by far the worst among the teams on that line; the Bulldogs rank 26th in Pomeroy's rankings, 11 slots worse than the next No. 4.
Minnesota, ranked 33rd, is the worst No. 5 seed. Arkansas, a No. 8 seed that North Carolina might face in the round of 32, is only five spots behind the Golden Gophers.
While Pomeroy's rankings are not an end-all metric, they're a good barometer of expectation. North Carolina is one of the deepest and most talented teams in the nation; its challengers in the top half all have glaring flaws and would represent a major upset.
The Tar Heels' road to the Final Four is a little tougher with either Kentucky or UCLA likely waiting in the regional final, but go ahead and toss them in the Elite Eight blindly.
Kansas (Not Gonzaga) Is the Most Vulnerable No. 1 Seed
A fun exercise: Every year, go to your bracket and find Michigan State. Then predict doom for whoever is in head coach Tom Izzo's path. That strategy went bust a year ago when the Spartans bowed out in the opening round, but history says to trust the Spartans.
Izzo's teams went to at least the Sweet 16 in each of the previous four years and have made the second weekend 13 times. He's made deep runs as a high seed, a low seed, a mid-seed—whatever. The Spartans closed with losses in three of their last four games but none came by more than five points; they're the most dangerous No. 9 seed.
All of that is bad news for Kansas, the No. 1 seed tasked with coming out of the Midwest Region. The Jayhawks will have a battle in the second round against either Michigan State or Miami, and there's a potential Sweet 16 matchup against an Iowa State team that beat them in Lawrence earlier this season.
Their conference tournament loss to TCU exposed some of the weaknesses in head coach Bill Self's roster. This team is not a typical disciplined bunch on defense, and Kansas skated through the regular season with quite a few close wins. With Louisville, Purdue and Oregon also part of the region, it'll be a real accomplishment if Kansas makes it to Phoenix.
Final Four picks: Duke (East), West Virginia (West), Louisville (Midwest), North Carolina (South)
.png?w=480 "NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Championship")
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
