NCAA Bracket 2017: Early Advice for Top Bracket Challenge Games

Numerous websites host massive bracket challenge games with huge prizes. These contests are nearly impossible to win and usually go to the person who, for whatever reason, takes a double-digit seed to make the Final Four when the odds are insurmountable against that happening.

That being said, it's always fun to fantasize about winning one of these pools and taking home thousands of dollars. As the New York Lottery always says, "Hey, you never know."

Here are four pieces of advice if you're planning to enter a bracket challenge game next week.

1. Be Contrarian...

Playing a bracket challenge game with tens of thousands of people is much different than playing an office or family pool with 10-15 people. In order to win the former, you need to differentiate your bracket from the field in order to find the path of least resistance to the top. In other words, go against the grain and the prevailing sentiment of the week (unless it seems like a slam dunk, a la Kentucky's run to the title in 2012).

For example, Michigan State was a heavy favorite to make the Final Four last season, and many people picked them to win the national title. The same went for Kansas, which was the No. 1 overall seed heading into the NCAA tournament.

However, the smart money was on No. 2 seed Villanova and No. 1 seed UNC, teams that far fewer folks were selecting to win the national championship but were still very good teams. People also avoided 'Nova because of recency bias, as it fell early as a top-two seed in previous years.

Those two teams eventually faced off against each other in the final, while MSU lost in the first round and Kansas lost in the Elite Eight.

2. ...But Don't Be Stupid

On the flip side, there is a thing as being too contrarian. For example, don't get cute and pick a double-digit seed to make the Final Four. Yes, it has happened, but more much often than not, that double-digit seed is going to lose in the first round and kill your bracket.

The same goes for picking two middling seeds to make the Final Four. Again, it happens (see 2014 when No. 7 UConn beat No. 8 Kentucky), but more often than not, you'll be a loser.

3. Check the Odds

If you're looking to pick between two middle seeds you don't know much about, look at the sportsbook odds and see which team is favored. Just because a No. 7 seed is playing a No. 10 seed doesn't mean that the No. 7 team is the favorite to win the game.

It's possible that the No. 7 team was over-seeded, the No. 10 team was under-seeded and/or the matchup is poor for the No. 7 seed. If you check the odds, perhaps the No. 10 seed is favored by a point or two to win.

Those are the prime places to pick upsets in your bracket. Don't look for a No. 14 seed to take down a No. 3 seed—look toward the middle of the bracket and pick out that No. 10 seed who's favored by a few points over a weaker No. 7 seed.

4. The Path of Least Resistance

FiveThirtyEight does a good job every year giving the mathematical odds of each team advancing to each round in the NCAA tournament. For example, likely No. 1 seed Villanova could have a 98 percent shot to win its first-round game and an 85 percent chance to advance to the second weekend.

Meanwhile, likely No. 1 seed Gonzaga could have a 95 percent chance to get through the first round but only a 75 percent chance to advance to the second weekend because of some tougher opponents in the No. 8-9 matchup in its regional.

That's the path of least resistance. You have to look out for pitfalls for each of the top teams in the tournament and see if there are any potential basketball landmines.

For example, West Virginia and Virginia, who are projected to be No. 4 and No. 5 seeds in the tournament right now, per ESPN's Joe Lunardi, are going to give a No. 1 seed a serious run for its money in the regional semifinals if that seeding comes to fruition. They are both in the top 10 of the Ken Pomeroy college basketball rankings and should do well in March.

Ultimately, find the easiest paths for your Final Four teams, and take them to make it to Phoenix in April.