NCAA Tournament 2017: Projecting Bracket Busters Before Conference Tournaments

Numerous analysts touted Michigan State as the favorite to win the NCAA Division I men's basketball national championship last year, and rightfully so. The Spartans were led by senior forward (and future NBA draft pick) Denzel Valentine and had won 13 of 14 games (as well as the Big Ten title) heading into the NCAA tournament.

MSU earned a No. 2 seed and was matched against No. 15 seed Middle Tennessee State, which was supposed to be an easy win before a national title run.

However, the Blue Raiders had other plans. MSU never led once in the entire game as MTSU made 56 percent of its field goals (including 11-of-19 from deep) as the Spartans lost a shocker, 90-81.

Similar losses happen nearly every season, as a team picked to win the national title by many loses in the first weekend.

Here are three teams this season who can etch their names alongside underdogs of years past (two of them have already done so) and ruin some brackets.

Texas-Arlington

Nearly every season, a No. 12 seed upsets a No. 5 seed in the NCAA tournament. Sometimes, those No. 12 seeds even advance to the Sweet Sixteen and give a No. 1 seed a run for its money (e.g. Ball State in 1990, which nearly shocked the college basketball world when it took eventual national champion UNLV to the limit with a 69-67 loss).

Texas-Arlington could be that team this year. Right now, it is projected to be a No. 12 seed in the NCAA tournament, per Bleacher Report college basketball analyst Kerry Miller.

The Mavericks, who are first in the Sun Belt Conference, won at Saint Mary's, 65-51, in December. The Gaels are a tough team. They are ranked 14th in the Ken Pomeroy rankings, 20th in the Associated Press poll and have only lost three games this year (the other two being losses to Gonzaga).

UT-Arlington also gave Arkansas, which is fourth in the SEC and a lock for the NCAA tournament, a scare in Fayetteville, losing 71-67 after leading by 11 at halftime.

The Mavericks are 24-6 overall (14-3 in the Sun Belt) and have won eight straight games. They are a strong rebounding team led by 6'9" junior forward (and Arlington native) Kevin Harvey (16.7 points and 8.4 rebounds per game and a 34.6 percent success rate on three-pointers).

Jorge Bilbao, a 6'9" senior forward, also pitches in down low with 9.3 points and 6.7 boards per game.

They also have point guard Erick Neal, who averages 10.3 points and 6.4 assists per game and just did this the other day against Georgia State:

It wouldn't be a surprise to see that again on a bigger stage.

Florida Gulf Coast

Can Florida Gulf Coast break some brackets yet again?

FGCU made noise in 2013 when, as a No. 15 seed, it upset No. 2 Georgetown and No. 7 San Diego State. Dunk City garnered national attention before losing to Florida in the Sweet Sixteen.

This season, FGCU is 25-7 overall and 12-2 in the Atlantic Sun. The Eagles beat the aforementioned UT-Arlington Mavericks, 85-72, which is probably their most impressive win, but their most notable performances occurred against Baylor and Michigan State.

FGCU hung tough with Baylor in Waco, Texas, only losing by one with two-and-a-half minutes left, but it eventually lost 81-72. The Eagles also went to East Lansing and nearly defeated Michigan State, losing by only one, 78-77.

FGCU is fifth in Division I in field goal percentage (50.3), per NCAA.com, thanks in large part to the remarkable efficiency of forward Demetris Morant, who has made over 75 percent of his field-goal attempts. The 6'9" senior averages 10.6 points and eight rebounds for the Eagles.

The Eagles will earn a berth to the NCAA tournament if it beats North Florida in the Atlantic Sun final on Sunday.

Princeton

The Ivy League champion has won its first NCAA tournament game four out of the last seven years. Most notably, No. 14 seed Harvard beat No. 3 seed New Mexico in 2013, and No. 12 seed Cornell beat No. 5 seed Temple and No. 4 seed Wisconsin to advance to the Sweet Sixteen.

Going further back to 1996, Princeton, as a No. 13 seed, defeated No. 4 seed UCLA, which had won the national championship the previous season.

This year, Princeton has won 16 straight games (including all of its Ivy League contests) en route to a 20-6 record. They are ranked a respectable 67th in the Ken Pomeroy rankings and 74th in the Sagarin ratings. The Tigers are a balanced team, with four players who average more than 10 points per game.

The problem the Tigers face this year, however, is that they have to win two extra games to seal a bid into the NCAA tournament.

For the first time ever, the Ivy League will have a postseason tournament featuring the top four finishers in the conference. In previous years, Princeton would have already sealed an NCAA tournament bid already, but this season the Tigers will need to take two extra games.

Given the way Princeton has played this year, they may not be a problem, although that would likely mean a third matchup with Harvard, which lost its two games to Princeton only by a combined five points this season.

Still, if the Tigers make the field, they have a good shot at giving a higher seed a stiff challenge.