NBA Coaches on the Hot Seat Entering the 2017 Stretch Run
If you're looking for a job with some semblance of security, don't become an NBA head coach.
Though longstanding signal-callers such as Gregg Popovich and Rick Carlisle serve as rare exceptions, most head coaches are subject to the ax more than every once in a while. There's a tremendous amount of turnover each year, even as some fired coaches land elsewhere as retread options.
For example, 10 different head coaches took over the reins for an organization this past offseason. Four assumed new responsibilities during the summer of 2015. One year prior to that, another four new faces were hired, while the 2013 offseason saw five head coaches take over.
If you're keeping score at home, that's 23 jobs turning over during the offseason in just four years, though some of the franchises hired new coaches more than once.
Of course, fired coaches must first be on the hot seat, and, as always, we have our fair share of (alphabetically listed) candidates this time around.
Steve Clifford, Charlotte Hornets
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Steve Clifford's seat is probably more lukewarm than scalding, but it's growing hotter as the Charlotte Hornets fall further out of the Eastern Conference playoff picture. Even though the team lost important bench pieces over the offseason (Jeremy Lin and Courtney Lee), it retained its core and was supposed to move into contention for home-court advantage during the postseason's opening round.
That hasn't happened.
The carousel of backup floor generals behind Kemba Walker has proved woefully inadequate, and Clifford has been unable to coax quality offense out of his troops. His system is a bit too simplistic, relying heavily on pick-and-rolls at the top of the key and often descending into chaos when the initial action is thwarted.
That's fine when Walker and Cody Zeller are on the floor, but the coach's inability to provide alterations that match his personnel is troubling. As a result, Charlotte has scored a middling 105.1 points per 100 possessions, leaving it sandwiched between the mediocre Indiana Pacers and lamentable New York Knicks.
Clifford remains a defensive genius and was admittedly handed a declining squad. The front office should've realized Marco Belinelli was a significant downgrade from Lee, and that Brian Roberts and Ramon Sessions couldn't replace Jeremy Lin's underrated contributions.
Clifford should also continue to benefit from making the playoffs two of his first three seasons with the Hornets. But a lottery finish this year is troubling, given the state of the Eastern Conference's middle class. That, coupled with the inability to provide fixes for a struggling offense, could push management to at least evaluate other options after the conclusion of an unsuccessful stretch run.
Alvin Gentry, New Orleans Pelicans
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The DeMarcus Cousins experiment is off to a shaky start. Since acquiring the big man at the tail end of All-Star Weekend, the New Orleans Pelicans have dropped games to the Houston Rockets, Dallas Mavericks and Oklahoma City Thunder, thereby falling further out of the Western Conference playoff picture.
This isn't a disaster. But it is the latest unfortunate entry in head coach Alvin Gentry's resume. New Orleans' front office made the deal under the impression that he could create immediate chemistry between Cousins and Anthony Davis, which would propel the Pelicans into the No. 8 seed.
"If New Orleans isn't above .500 a year from now, I think that's a disaster. I wouldn't say the same of missing the 2017 playoffs—as I mentioned, they dug a pretty deep hole due to some unavoidable circumstances—but falling short this year probably costs Alvin Gentry his job," SB Nation's Tom Ziller wrote.
"Next year, below .500 at the deadline? I think Cousins' value will be so low you might as well keep him. He's graded on a different curve now."
If Gentry had been receiving strong marks prior to the deal, he'd be granted a honeymoon period while the new additions adapted to novel circumstances. But the supposed offensive genius has failed to create a respectable scoring system around one of the league's most prolific frontcourt talents in Davis.
Maybe the expectations were just too high, but the Pelicans are producing more points per 100 possessions than only the Brooklyn Nets, Orlando Magic and Philadelphia 76ers.
If that number doesn't drastically improve during the stretch run, there won't be a third year to New Orleans' Gentry era.
Fred Hoiberg, Chicago Bulls
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During his time in the collegiate ranks, Fred Hoiberg was known primarily for two things: quality relationships with his players and dominant offense.
Neither has translated to the NBA.
Had Gar Forman and John Paxson given Hoiberg the tools necessary to implement his preferred system—constant free-flowing motion and high screens with multiple shooters at different positions—the Chicago Bulls might be in a different place.
But with a backcourt that can’t drain triples, a frontcourt that recently lost Doug McDermott and Taj Gibson in a trade and a roster construction that places far too much pressure on Dwyane Wade and Jimmy Butler, that hasn’t been possible.
Chemistry has been iffy in the Windy City throughout 2016-17, and not just because of the social-media drama centered around leadership. As K.C. Johnson detailed for the Chicago Tribune in late January, Hoiberg has been forced to change his approach and hold his players accountable, which hasn’t been the smoothest of processes:
"It's not hyperbole to say Hoiberg's declared shift from empathetic former player to boss demanding accountability—and whether the leopard can change his spots—will define whether his tenure is successful," Johnson wrote. "And while the three years remaining on his deal still affords Hoiberg job security, his declared personality change is another sign of the isolated burden to improve being placed on him."
Jeff Hornacek, New York Knicks
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The New York Knicks aren’t going to be patient.
This was supposed to be the year they took major strides forward. They went after big names—though there’s a big difference between great players and big names—during the offseason by acquiring Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah, then sat and watched as the former declared his squad was a "super team," per NBA.com’s Lang Whitaker.
Almost nothing has been super about the 2016-17 campaign.
After finishing with a 32-50 record under the combined supervision of Derek Fisher and Kurt Rambis, the Knicks are on pace to win 33 games. But even that might be a reach as tanking stratagems take hold during the last portion of the regular season. Already, we’re seeing veterans (Brandon Jennings) waived in favor of young contributors and players with experience (Joakim Noah) being shut down with injuries.
And it’s not like the Knicks can point to culture as a saving grace. Between the Charles Oakley drama and the tension between superstar small forward Carmelo Anthony and president of basketball operations Phil Jackson, not much has gone right.
A scapegoat may be needed—a usual Knicks ploy—especially as the team comes out of the All-Star break with a desire to move back to its triangular roots. As Fred Kerber reported for the New York Post, "Coach Jeff Hornacek admitted Tuesday the final two months of the season basically will contain triangle-offense auditions for players as the Knicks utilize more of team president Phil Jackson’s preferred roots."
And considering Hornacek entered the year emphasizing stylistic differences between his preferences and the roots of the triangle, it wouldn’t be at all surprising if Jackson chose to shift attention away from his own failures by removing Hornacek from the equation and hiring a new coach more comfortable with his pet scheme. Again.
I see you, Rambis.
Terry Stotts, Portland Trail Blazers
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The Portland Trail Blazers were supposed to continue rising toward the top of the Western Conference after re-signing their key players and adding Evan Turner into the mix. Instead, they've plummeted down the standings to the point they might not make the playoffs during a year in which the No. 8 seed is eminently attainable.
Defense has been the biggest issue.
It's not just that Rip City is allowing points in bunches—a natural result of playing Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum together for so many minutes. No aspect of point-preventing can be boasted about, which hints at Stott's inability to develop a consistent system on that end.
Typically, even the NBA's worst defenses fare well in at least one of the Four Factors. Stotts' Blazers, though, rank 12th or worse across the board:
| Score | 51.0 | 11.5 | 76.5 | 0.257 |
| Rank | No. 12 | No. 27 | No. 15 | No. 28 |
Portland isn't effective at preventing teams from shooting efficiently despite rarely gambling to force turnovers. It constantly fouls. Even when compelling the opposition to misfire, it's only average at preventing second-chance opportunities. That's a major reason only four teams—the Phoenix Suns, Brooklyn Nets, Los Angeles Lakers and Denver Nuggets—have been more porous.
If Stotts can't use the trade-deadline acquisition of Jusuf Nurkic to fix his team's defensive woes, he might not get a chance to try again in 2017-18. This is a team that was expected to win now.
Instead, it's presented management with a weakness so glaring, lottery territory is on the horizon.
Earl Watson, Phoenix Suns
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As Troy Tauscher dug up for ArizonaSports.com, Earl Watson's record as head coach (28-54) is the second-worst in Phoenix Suns history through 82 games, besting only Red Kerr (16-66).
It's only going to get worse for Watson.
Part of the problem is the team's overreliance on youthful contributors, which will only be exacerbated by the removal of P.J. Tucker after his deadline trade to the Toronto Raptors. Watson can only be expected to do so much with this dismal roster.
But he hasn't even met the minimal expectations.
Phoenix continues to push the pace at every turn, even though that's not necessarily in the best interest of an offense that devolves into isolation play and refuses to share the ball. It would be better if he were asking his troops to focus on improving weaknesses during a lost season, since that would allow for more improvement and better future prospects. Plus, he hasn't helped the defense show many signs of growth.
Nonetheless, Watson's job is probably the safest of the coaches featured in this article. Fresh off his playing career, he was hired to develop alongside a young roster that often operates with a talent deficit, and he's only in the first season of a three-year deal.
But the utter lack of progress could prove problematic, especially if the team only continues to flounder or trends in the wrong direction during the campaign's final stretch.
Adam Fromal covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @fromal09.
Unless otherwise indicated, all stats from Basketball-Reference.com, NBA.com or NBA Math and accurate heading into games on Friday, March 3.
