March Madness 2017: Highlighting Tournament's Most Dangerous Bubble Teams

Two weeks separate college basketball fans—and that person at the office who uses the best mascots in their pool—from obsessing over this year's March Madness bracket. Although February will soon expire and make way for conference tournaments, the final national field remains fuzzy at best.

Deciphering the four No. 1 seeds is hard enough, but locking down all 68 participants is virtually impossible. An eventful weekend altered bracket projections, and the final season and conference playoffs will mandate more changes.

A packed bubble watch means hopefuls will see their dreams dashed on March 12's Selection Sunday. Yet, it also requires the true worthy candidates to earn a tournament ticket. If the committee chooses wisely, the teams who survive this ordeal should be equipped to bust some brackets.

These three clubs are demanding attention down the stretch. If they stay hot for a tad longer, recency bias will serve them well during the final cuts. Perhaps these hot streaks amount to random noise over a larger sample, but these schools currently look capable of inflicting damage during the NCAA tournament...if they receive an invite.

Michigan

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Michigan is doing its best to avoid any last-minute drama. Following Saturday's 82-70 win over Big Ten leader Purdue, the Wolverines have stepped away from the edge into a probable slot.

With the pivotal home victory, they have won five of their past six bouts, including another triumph over a Big Ten title contender, Wisconsin, at Ann Arbor. Rewind further back to Feb. 7, and they trounced Michigan State by 29.

At their best, they're far more dominant than most bubble teams. Maize n Brew's Alejandro Zuniga listed their notable double-digit wins:

Over 150 teams have averaged more points than Michigan's 74.3 per game, but that amounts to the team's slow-motion pace. The squad ranks No. 343 out of 351 Division I squads in KenPom.com's adjusted tempo, but it jumps to No. 8 in adjusted offensive efficiency.

All seven players who average double-digit minutes have shot above 41 percent from the floor. Moritz Wagner, the most effective scorer, sports a 67.2 true shooting percentage, per Sports Reference. On Saturday, he churned out a career-high 24 points against the Boilermakers.

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As leading scorer Derrick Walton Jr. told MLive.com's Brendan F. Quinn, the 6'11" forward from Germany "thinks he's Kevin Durant."

"He's got so many skills, I don't think you can put him in a box on what he's capable doing," Walton said.

Wagner has a long way to go before validating such hype, but the big man has a smooth perimeter touch that will make him a mismatch for many opponents. As he showed in Michigan's last upset, he wields the upside to orchestrate an unexpected tournament victory or two.

Rhode Island

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Following a costly 53-43 loss to Fordham, now 13-16 with an RPI of 196, Rhode Island allowed itself no margin of error down the stretch. To salvage a March Madness bid, the Rams needed a spotless finish against Atlantic 10 foes.

So far, so good. They have recovered to win three in a row, most recently and notably besting VCU by 10 on Saturday. Because of ugly losses to Fordham and La Salle, they can't afford a shortcoming against Saint Joseph's or Davidson. In fact, they may still need to best VCU or Dayton during a strong conference-tournament showing.

They have lost to the Flyers twice this season but only by a combined four points. Despite their occasional shortcomings, the Rams still rank No. 53 in KenPom.com's team efficiency and No. 40 in RPI.

Rhode Island has revealed a floor that could produce a one-and-done route if the selection committee gives the green light. The team coached by Dan Hurley, however, contains a promising nucleus of upperclassmen led by senior forward Hassan Martin and junior guards E.C. Matthews and Jared Terrell.

Martin and Terrell especially came up huge during an essential win over VCU:

Player	MIN	PTS	FGM-A	FTM-A	REB
Martin	23	17	6-11	5-6	18
Terrell	37	20	4-13	9-13	10

A lot still must go right for Rhode Island to make the tournament, so let's not start mapping out a Cinderella plot just yet. That being said, at least its odds of making the party have improved to envision an intriguing sleeper.

Providence

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Providence is 8-8 in Big East play with two losses against squads outside the top 100 in RPI. Its case certainly features noticeable warts not even a four-game winning streak can cover.

Then again, those triumphs came against three March Madness-bound opponents (Butler, Xavier and Creighton) as well as fellow bubble team Marquette. As a result, the Friars can now counter those troublesome shortcomings with the upside of a promising lower seed.

If the selection committee appreciates suspense, it may also look fondly on their home win over the Eagles, who led by 10 with six minutes remaining.

Before beating Marquette, ESPN.com's Joe Lunardi placed Providence outside of his bracket and in the next-four-out column. Considering he also pegged Marquette a No. 11 seed, the math probably moves the Friars closer to inclusion.

Their plus-3.7 average scoring margin won't stand out, but their tenacious defense validates some of their close, low-scoring victories. KenPom.com grades them No. 37 in adjusted defensive efficiency, so that formula could yield a narrow tournament upset.

In order to entertain a tournament invite, they must first avenge losses against DePaul and St. John's to close the season. An eye-opening Big East tournament display would also go a long way to cementing them as a worthy choice capable of engineering a second-round upset with the right matchup.

Note: RPI data obtained from ESPN.com.