Sleeper Rankings for the 2017 NCAA Tournament

It's easy to pick from the highest-seeded teams when figuring out who will go the deepest in the NCAA tournament, but where's the fun in that? The real challenge is finding those unexpected schools that seemingly come out of nowhere to make runs.

While the first-round upsets pulled off by double-digit seeds are what get the most attention early on, the lower-seeded teams that make it to the second weekend and beyond warrant the Cinderella title. But before they can earn that label, they have a different one: sleeper.

For the purposes of this piece, any team that ends up being seeded sixth or lower is eligible for sleeper status. These teams would likely have to pull off at least one upset to make it to the Sweet 16, if not two, and the momentum gained from those wins could power them even further.

Every year we see a handful of such sleepers make the second weekend of the NCAA tournament. Last season, No. 6 Notre Dame, No. 7 Wisconsin, No. 10 Syracuse and No. 11 Gonzaga got to the Sweet 16, with Notre Dame reaching the Elite Eight and Syracuse making it to the Final Four.

Who are the best bets to be sleepers this time around? Using the average position in published brackets compiled by BracketMatrix.com as a guide, here's how we rank some top candidates less than three weeks before the 2017 NCAA tourney begins March 14.

8. Monmouth Hawks

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Record: 23-5, 15-2 MAAC

Projected seed: 13th

Monmouth drew quite a bit of attention last year via its series of high-profile upsets during nonconference play as well as the antics of its bench players. But when the Hawks lost to Iona in the Metro Atlantic tournament final, it robbed the NCAA tournament of getting to experience those things.

The "Bench Mob" is still there, and so too is a team that's capable of beating anyone, as Monmouth showed by winning at Memphis in December and in losing by one in overtime at South Carolina. The Hawks are as good as they were a season ago and were the first team in the country to clinch a conference regular-season title.

Assuming they don't get knocked off during the MAAC tourney, they're going to be a trendy pick to pull off a first-round NCAA upset. But a team led by electric 5'8" senior guard Justin Robinson and Oklahoma transfer guard Je'lon Hornbeak is built to win more than once in March.

7. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

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Record: 24-4, 14-1 Conference USA

Projected seed: 12th

Michigan State fans, avert your eyes. We're about to bring up some painful memories.

Middle Tennessee is the team that pulled off the biggest upset of the 2016 tournament and arguably one of the most shocking results in tourney history, taking out No. 2 Michigan State as a No. 15 seed by shooting 55.9 percent overall and making 11 three-pointers.

The Blue Raiders were relatively unknown at that time but now are among the most dangerous mid-majors out there, having beat SEC schools Ole Miss and Vanderbilt during a 10-1 start. MTSU still shoots well at 48.6 percent, but it is more dependent on a defense that allows 63 points per game.

MTSU has held thirteen of its opponents to 60 points or fewer, tied for eighth-most in the country.

6. Iowa State Cyclones

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Record: 18-9, 10-5 Big 12

Projected seed: 8th

Iowa State won at Texas Tech in overtime Monday night for its fourth consecutive win, remaining in a tie for second place in the Big 12 with West Virginia. It was the Cyclones' fifth road league victory and their eighth this season outside of Hilton Coliseum, showing they're capable of winning in any environment.

Having one of the most senior-laden teams in the country helps, and that experience should pay off in the NCAA tournament since their top four scorers are seniors who have a combined 21 games of postseason experience under their belts.

Guards Monte Morris and Matt Thomas are headed for their fourth NCAA tourney, while guard Nazareth Mitrou-Long will be playing in his third (after missing last season's because of injury). Finally, guard Deonte Burton is back for his second go-around.

Morris is set to go down as one of the most careful players in NCAA history in terms of his 5.8 assist-to-turnover ratio, according to Team Rankings, and he has passed this approach on to the rest of the team. ISU turns the ball over fewer than 11 times per game and assists on more than 53 percent of its made field goals.

5. Wichita State Shockers

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Record: 25-4, 15-1 Missouri Valley

Projected seed: 10th

Outside of the 2013-14 team that entered the NCAA tournament unbeaten and garnered a No. 1 seed, Wichita State has more or less become a mainstay on lists of potential tourney sleepers. And most years, the Shockers have made good on that distinction, winning at least two NCAA games while seeded seventh or lower three times in the previous four seasons.

That includes the 2012-13 squad that, as a No. 9 seed, reached the Final Four.

Is this year's Shockers team capable of making a similar run? Before dominating the Missouri Valley, it got plenty of experience against power-conference schools, going 2-3, including a 10-point loss to Louisville in November at the Battle 4 Atlantis. Its only loss since mid-December was at Illinois State (now 23-5), but when they met the Redbirds three weeks later, they won by 41.

Wichita averages more than 81 points per game but doesn't have a player scoring more than 11.8 (Markis McDuffie) thanks to a balanced approach with plenty of depth. The starting lineup it has used in seven of the last eight games, all wins by at least 17 points, produces less than 60 percent of the scoring.

4. Dayton Flyers

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Record: 21-5, 12-2 Atlantic 10

Projected seed: 8th

Dayton is tied for first with Virginia Commonwealth in the Atlantic 10, but we're much higher on the Flyers than the Rams. After all, Dayton didn't need minor miracles to win recent games via fouls called in the final second like VCU has.

But the Flyers are just as effective at winning close games, having come out on top in three straight decided by four or fewer points after losing their first three such games to NCAA tourney-bound Northwestern and Saint Mary's as well as Nebraska. That's due to a veteran lineup in which their top four scorers are all seniors, including three who have played in three postseasons and were part of the Elite Eight run in 2014.

Dayton has also gotten back a key player just in time for the stretch run. Sophomore forward Josh Cunningham, a transfer from Bradley, tore a ligament in his ankle in November but returned to action Feb. 10. Then, in his second game back, he scored 12 points in 23 minutes.

3. Oklahoma State Cowboys

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Record: 18-9, 7-7 Big 12

Projected seed: 8th

Oklahoma State is like a hybrid of all the best things you get from other Big 12 teams but to a lesser extent. The Cowboys press like West Virginia, forcing nearly 16 turnovers per 100 possessions with the 25th-best steal percentage. They have the nation's second-most efficient offense (125.4 points scored per 100 plays), according to KenPom.com, and are just behind Kansas in three-point shooting. Also, their rebounding acumen is nearly as good as that of Baylor.

So why is OK State in fifth place in the Big 12 instead of up there battling for first? Because its defense didn't pass muster early on, giving up 85.7 points per game and 50 percent shooting during an 0-6 start. Since then, it has won seven of eight in the conference, but its 77.7 points allowed per game are still worst in the league and among the bottom 20 percent nationally.

That means the Cowboys aren't going to shut opponents down, but because of their ability to create havoc (and their explosiveness on offense), they're never out of it. And if they get a high-seeded opponent in the second round who isn't good at taking care of the ball, some ridiculousness could happen.

2. Saint Mary's Gaels

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Record: 24-3, 14-2 West Coast

Projected seed: 6th

Saint Mary's might be the most mysterious ranked team in college basketball in some time, the result of being a mid-major in a league where all anyone really pays attention to is powerhouse Gonzaga. Because of this, the Gaels have gone mostly unnoticed this season outside of when they played (and lost to) the Bulldogs twice.

But most aren't aware that Saint Mary's is among the top teams in Division I in offensive and defensive efficiency. According to KenPom.com, the Gaels are 12th on offense (120 points per 100 possessions) and 32nd on defense (96.2 points allowed per 100 possessions). They are a team that shoots 49.3 percent, but thanks to a super-slow pace, it holds foes to 56.3 points per game, second-best in the country.

While Gonzaga has managed to solve Saint Mary's, winning by an average of 16.5 points while holding it to 40.2 percent shooting, no one else in the conference has had an answer. This has especially been the case with junior center Jock Landale, who has broken through to average 16.6 points and 9.3 rebounds per game on 60.3 percent shooting after being a bit-part player the last two seasons.

Saint Mary's is also the only team in the country with two players dishing out more than five assists per game in guards Emmett Naar and Joe Rahon. That's helped the Gaels rank fourth in assist-to-turnover ratio.

1. SMU Mustangs

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Record: 24-4, 14-1 American

Projected seed: 6th

SMU is heading into March with a lot of pent-up frustration that it's waiting to unleash on its opponents. After being shut out from the tournament last season and bounced from the previous tourney in controversial fashion, the Mustangs are champing at the bit to redeem themselves.

They are riding their second 10-game winning streak of this season, the only loss in between by two points at Cincinnati, now No. 2 in the AAC. In their current run, they've held opponents to 57.8 points per game, only once allowing more than 64 points. For the season, they rank third nationally in scoring defense (58.9 points per game allowed) and ninth in field-goal defense (38.7 percent).

A good chunk of SMU's roster has been around since 2014-15, when it lost to UCLA in the second round of the NCAA tourney, with the game decided on a goaltending call on Yanick Moreira. Last year's Mustangs team went 25-5 and started 18-0, but the NCAA banned it from the postseason because of sanctions that also resulted in head coach Larry Brown's nine-game suspension.

Brown abruptly resigned last summer, handing over the program to Tim Jankovich. He also left behind access to Duke transfer Semi Ojeleye, who leads SMU in scoring at 18.3 points per game.

All statistics courtesy of Sports-Reference.com unless otherwise noted. All recruiting information courtesy of Scout.com unless otherwise noted.

Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.