Super Bowl 51: Patriots vs. Falcons Live Stream, Odds and Prediction Guide

The New England Patriots will slip past the Atlanta Falcons in a high-scoring affair at NRG Stadium during Super Bowl 51. 

At least, so say the odds out of Las Vegas, which peg the staredown between Tom Brady and Matt Ryan as potentially one of the highest-scoring Super Bowls ever where experience is the ultimate trump card.

This leaves bettors an interesting path to the left or right. On the left is rolling with the favorite led by Brady, who knows a thing or two about hosting a Lombardi Trophy. On the right is some fresh blood in the Falcons and a smooth underdog payout.

Here is the important game info before a deep dive into the odds:

Date	Location	Time	TV	Live Stream	Point Spread	ML	Over/Under
Feb. 5	NRG Stadium, Houston	6:30 p.m. ET	Fox	Fox Sports Go	NE -3	NE (-120), ATL (+100)	58.5

That is a huge over/under.

No, really—as RJ Bell of ESPN Radio pointed out, a 59 is downright historic:

The number will continue to float around until kickoff, but bettors might as well slap some coin down on the over.

This is Ryan and Brady, after all. Ryan just won the MVP award, per the league's Twitter account, after throwing 38 touchdowns during the regular season and another seven in the postseason.

Ryan has to go against a New England defense that allowed fewer than 20 points per game on average during the regular season. While a valid point, one can argue the Atlanta offense is the best attack the Patriots have faced all year, so Ryan's doing his part to hit the over doesn't seem outlandish.

Brady seems like a lock to do his part, of course. The man missed the first four games of the season. This wasn't the doom-and-gloom scenario some might have envisioned for a quarterback going on 40 years old—he picked up right where he left off, throwing 28 touchdowns and just two interceptions over 12 starts.

Both defenses pale by comparison. Atlanta improved as the season went on and wound up holding Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers-led teams to 20 and 21 points in the playoffs, respectively. But containing Brady is a different monster.

New England quietly impressed much more. But fully stopping this many weapons through the air doesn't seem likely:

NAME	REC	TAR	YDS	TD
Julio Jones	83	129	1409	6
Mohamed Sanu	59	81	653	4
Taylor Gabriel	35	49	579	6
Devonta Freeman	54	65	462	2

What the Patriots defense has done despite trading Jamie Collins is impressive. Devin McCourty and Malcolm Butler are two of the best in the business. The ability of the coaching staff to game-plan a hybrid scheme on a case-by-case basis is perhaps league-best. But at some point, the numbers game comes into account, and Atlanta has too many weapons to cover well.

And that is simply covering the over/under. None of the above makes it easier to pick outright or against the spread, which feel like the same thing given how little the spread has moved for the past two weeks.

One could bank on a bit of a historical precedent pointed out by ESPN's Don Van Natta Jr.:

Or one could look at the history of Super Bowl odds. According to the Washington Post's Matt Bonesteel, the Patriots are 1-4 against the spread in their last five Super Bowls. They are also 16-17 against the spread in the playoffs with Brady under center.

This sort of back and forth could go on for thousands of words. LeGarrette Blount could easily take this game over and keep the Falcons off the field after bullying his way to 18 rushing scores this year.

Or Atlanta could start hot and squat on the lead via a short passing game meant to emulate the run. It's not a shootout if the Falcons nickel-and-dime their way down the field while chewing up time of possession and sitting on a lead.

Atlanta's getting out in front could easily take Blount out of the game. But Brady, against a defense that only managed 34 sacks during the regular season, can use a fast-paced offense to keep pace in a shootout.

The pick and spread here comes down to personal preference. Execution will decide this game—both offenses love firing the ball out fast and letting targets make plays after the catch. The defense able to limit major plays via quick tackles will win out.

Viewed through this lens, Ryan and the Falcons have a problem on their hands.

Ryan isn't a stranger to New England's strengths, as captured by USA Today's Jarrett Bell: “They do a great job of limiting explosive plays. They don’t make mistakes, they don’t get out of position very often, and they tackle extremely well. They kind of keep things in front, like they’re supposed to. To me, it looks like a defense that’s on top of the details.”

Falcons head coach Dan Quinn has done an incredible job since joining after helping the Seattle Seahawks build an elite defense. He's found gems, and the defense is on the right path—but it's not on the same level as New England's unit, at least not yet.

A Bill Belichick-schemed approach is hard to pick against here. Atlanta has been sensational. But New England is still New England, and Brady is still Brady.

The Patriots have more experience on this stage. And when one of the key factors in a close game with little odds movement is execution, something as borderline cliche as experience becomes the biggest talking point.

Look for both teams to exchange blows for most of the game until the fourth quarter, where this key point will come into play. Brady will have the ball last—and seasoned bettors should now the rest by now.

Prediction: Patriots 34, Falcons 27

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. All betting information courtesy of OddsShark. All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus.