Houston Rockets Trade Value Rankings Heading into 2016-17 NBA Trade Deadline
The Houston Rockets are stumbling through January after a red-hot December, but that doesn’t mean they’re likely to go racing to make a big trade.
They could, however, look to bolster their lineup. Daryl Morey is always scouring the market, looking for some hapless victim to swindle.
He always seems to get the better end of the deal, yet he keeps finding ways to convince people to do deals with him. So, who knows? Maybe something happens.
Which Rockets might be moved?
Not all players have value, and not all players are available. Let’s categorize the roster and then look at the players who could realistically bring a contributor for the playoff run.
Untouchables
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James Harden is so untradeable that the Rockets probably wouldn’t trade him for a single player in the league; not LeBron James, Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant or Russell Westbrook. He is having an MVP season, has a team perfectly constructed around him, is in the prime of his career and locked up by contract for as long as NBA rules allow.
Eric Gordon
Eric Gordon is essential to Houston's success. He complements Harden when they’re on the court together (through 39.2 percent three-point shooting and secondary ball handling) and spells him when he needs to grab a breather (by leading the offense to be good enough that leads don’t dissolve the instant Harden sits down). It’s as if someone etched the perfect Sixth Man for Houston out of stone.
The Rockets are 33-13 when Gordon has played and 1-2 when he hasn’t. The latter is a small sample size but indicative of how important he is nonetheless.
Patrick Beverley
Similar to Gordon, Beverley’s value is tough to replace. His dogged defense and 39.7 percent three-point shooting make him a perfect starter off Harden. Essentially, he’s the point guard on defense and the shooting guard on offense, a “three-and-d’” point guard if you will. It’s a scarce commodity in the NBA, and Beverley may very well be the best there is in that role.
Ryan Anderson
Anderson doesn’t just make threes; he makes deep threes. His threes are so deep, they’re downright meditative. They have profound wisdom. His range extends several feet behind the three-point line (77 from 25 feet or further), and that causes defenses to stretch even more.
As stretch 4s go, he’s the stretchiest. The power forward with the next-most makes from 25 feet is Kevin Love at 46. Sure, there are defensive issues with Anderson, but the trade-off is in Houston’s favor because of how well he complements the rest of the roster.
Trevor Ariza
Trevor Ariza (along with Beverley to a degree) is the Rockets’ glue guy. He defends. He kills corner threes like he’s some sort of corner-three sociopath. He rebounds. He cuts. He screens. He communicates. He does whatever needs to be done. One stat which is telling about Ariza is that he’s only missed one game in his three seasons with Houston.
Glue. Guy.
And you should never, ever, trade your glue guy unless you get an offer you just can’t turn down. When you get rid of your glue guy, things tend to come unglued, and then things fall apart.
Clint Capela
Capela is pretty close to the perfect 5 for the Rockets system.
He’s long (6’11” with a 7’4.5” wingspan according to DraftExpress.com), and he uses that length well. He has big, soft mitts, and uses them corral any pass thrown near the rim and put the oop in another player’s alley, doing so 48 times this year in only 34 games, per NBA.com.
He is also a good rim protector. Opponents shoot 7.6 percent below their season averages when he is the closest defender within six feet of the bucket.
He is also a solid rebounder, securing 18.3 percent of missed shots while he’s on the court.
That combination of traits is what makes him an exceptional player, and very hard to let go of.
Little to No Trade Value
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Bobby Brown
Brown is on the team only because he’s friends with James Harden, and that’s not even a quip. Even Brown essentially described that as why he made the cut, telling Calvin Watkins of ESPN:
"I’m a team guy. It’s just our overall camaraderie together -- me, him and Trevor [Ariza]. We’re all like best friends because we’re all from L.A. We know how to take care of each other, take criticism from each other, tell them what they don’t want to hear, and they can live with it. It means a lot coming from the best point guard/2-guard in the league."
Nobody’s trading for a guy who’s on the roster because he’s Harden’s friend—unless Harden comes with him.
Tyler Ennis
Ennis has already spent time with the Phoenix Suns and Milwaukee Bucks on the end of their respective benches. Now, he’s not in Houston’s rotation. His player efficiency rating is 3.9, according to Basketball-Reference.com, which is third-lowest among players with 100 or more minutes. Teams don’t trade for 3.9 PERs.
Kyle Wiltjer
Wiltjer is an undrafted rookie who did enough during the preseason to make the team. He has not, however, done enough to give him any trade value.
Fillers and Throw-Ins
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These are players who aren’t objectively going to be the “target” of a trade, but who could be moved to make a trade work because of “seasoning” or to make the salaries match.
Chinanu Onuaku
Fun Fact: Even though Onuaku has played just 10 minutes this season, his 1.0 win shares ties him for 20th in his rookie calls, and his .525 win shares per 48 minutes lead the field! While I jest, maybe he’s caught someone’s eye as “Morey’s next draft steal” and could add a little “topping” to a larger trade.
Nene Hilario
Nene has been a solid presence for the Rockets all season, averaging 7.9 points and 3.7 rebounds. He could be included in a deal to add a little incentive, or to top off cap space. But his deal is only for $2.9 million, according to Spotrac.com, and that’s about what he’s worth. He’s not likely to be the target of any trades or involved in any that don’t bring a big man back.
Corey Brewer has been more of a disaster than many Rockets fans would like to admit. At best, he’s been average defensively, with an ESPN defensive real plus-minus of 0.63 (29th out of 80 small forwards). His points per possession numbers at SynergySportsTech.com are far worse (1.0 point per possession, 15th percentile).
Offensively, his 0.7 points per possession in transition ranks in just the sixth percentile, which is appalling for a guy who has established his career on defense and fast breaks.
However, his $7.6 million contract would provide salary-ballast if he’s combined with one of the cheaper players that teams could be interested in trading for.
K.J. McDaniels
Morey traded for McDaniels two years ago at the trade deadline. Since then, McDaniels has logged 467 minutes on the court—about a third of what he did in the half season he played with the Philadelphia 76ers before that. He’s a defensive playmaker, but he’s a poor shooter.
Other teams could be interested in him, but his lack of playing time makes it unlikely he’s the object of anyone’s desire.
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Montrezl Harrell
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Montrezl Harrell is the first of two players whom the Rockets have of the “I’ll take your call, but I’m not actively shopping him” variety.
There is a good reason teams would want to trade for Harrell. He’s really strong in the paint. And he’s just barely behind the pace to qualify for the field-goal percentage leaderboard (he needs 180 made shots through 49 team games; he has 164).
If he were to qualify, he would be third if his present 65.6 percentage holds up. He also averages 7.1 rebounds per 48 minutes, which for a guy 6’8” who is playing plenty at the 5 is impressive.
He’s also got a rim-runner mentality and has some outright manly finishes. He’s not a bad defender, either, quick enough to guard most of the stretch 4s in the league.
Think of a Taj Gibson/Kenneth Faried hybrid.
It’s not likely that Morey contemplates trading Harrell, but if the Philadelphia 76ers start calling about Nerlens Noel, Morey might try getting creative. As a second-round pick in his rookie deal, his $1 million contract would have to be combined with another player (likely Brewer) to bring back anyone worthwhile.
Sam Dekker
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Sam Dekker has developed amazingly well in his sophomore season, becoming the latest of a string of Morey’s draft successes. That’s even more amazing considering he played just six minutes in his rookie year due to injury.
He’s shooting 58.5 percent from two and 32.6 percent from deep. His long shot has been streaky, highlighted by a career night when he exploded for 6-of-11 against the Memphis Grizzlies, in route to a 30-point, four-rebound, four-assist, two-steal night on Jan. 21.
It was the type of night the Rockets needed from him as they were without Ryan Anderson, who was out with the flu, and Dekker got the start in his stead.
I was trying to think of the best player comparison for him, and I kept coming back to is Ariza. He’s basically “good” at everything, though, he’s not elite at anything. He has a great basketball IQ, sees cutting lanes and exploits them.
He switches easily in defense. He has the lateral quickness to guard 3s and the strength to guard 4s.
Guys like that fill a lot of holes.
I wondered if I was alone in seeing the Ariza similarities. A Google search and a minute later, I found out I wasn’t. In discussing player comparisons with Marc Lamont Hill of HuffPost Live (h/t Maxwell Strachan of the Huffington Post) before the draft, Dekker said, “Another guy I kind of like watching is Trevor Ariza.”
Dekker’s career game may have been enough to make a hapless general manager turning his mind toward tanking pick the phone up. But as with Harrell, his $1.6 million salary won’t bring back much by itself, so it would have to be done in conjunction with Brewer or McDaniels.
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