Who Is Krasnodar's Fedor Smolov and What Would He Bring to Borussia Dortmund?
January 1 and, with it, the opening of the transfer window is rapidly approaching; the start of the silly season is almost upon us.
For fans of Borussia Dortmund, that will most likely mean a month of speculation surrounding players such as Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Christian Pulisic, even though it is out of the question that the Ruhr side will let go of either.
It could still be an active time for the club's decision-makers, though. There are a few players who could leave the Westfalenstadion after only playing small roles during the first half of the season, be it Neven Subotic, Nuri Sahin or Shinji Kagawa.
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They also have to look at bringing in reinforcements, given their up-and-down campaign to this point. With a tricky away fixture against unbeaten 1899 Hoffenheim scheduled for Friday, the sixth-placed Black and Yellows could spend the winter break outside of the UEFA Champions League spots in the Bundesliga.
As suggested in an earlier piece, a midfielder such as Mahmoud Dahoud could help the team's woes in possession, while Dortmund could also try to sign a centre-back to remedy some defensive frailties.
A position that does not register as too high a priority for the winter window is striker, but, somewhat curiously, the hottest transfer rumour revolves around Dortmund's front line: FC Krasnodar's Fedor Smolov has been linked to the Westfalenstadion for a while.
The 26-year-old fuelled those rumours earlier in December, appearing on Russian TV channel Match TV. "There is one team for which I would be willing to leave Krasnodar in the winter," he said, per Manuel Veth of Futbolgrad.com, adding that it is a team from Germany.
Russian sport paper Championat (h/t Toke Theilade of RussianFootballNews.com) reported Dortmund are close to sealing the deal, albeit with Smolov only moving to the club after the end of the season.
Leading media in Germany have yet to pick up on the story, casting some doubt on the veracity of the reports from Russia, but Smolov is too interesting a player to discard the rumour just like that.
Here, Bleacher Report takes a look at what the striker would bring to the Westfalenstadion.
Positional Fit at Dortmund
Aubameyang and Adrian Ramos represent perhaps the best one-two punch of strikers in the Bundesliga. The Gabonese has been on fire this season, scoring 19 goals in 20 appearances across all competitions.
While Ramos is often viewed with some scrutiny by the club's fanbase, the Colombian has been a solid contributor under head coach Thomas Tuchel when used as a striker and not on the wings. The former Hertha BSC forward has scored three goals in seven starts this season and assisted Marco Reus' vital equaliser against Cologne on the weekend.
However, Ramos will turn 31 on January 22 and was reportedly close to moving to China in the winter window of last season until the Ruhr side pulled the plug on a transfer, per Thomas Hennecke of sport magazine Kicker (link in German).
It would not be too surprising to see the Colombian push for a financially lucrative move soon, whether it is in January or the summer. Dortmund could be inclined to let go of Ramos in order to find a younger upgrade at the position. Smolov could provide just that.
Perhaps more importantly, the Russia international does not have to play as a lone striker. He has vast experience playing on the wings of a 4-3-3 or a 4-2-3-1 alignment. He really only became a regular starter up front when he moved to FC Ural Yekaterinburg on loan from Dynamo Moscow in 2014.
His scoring contribution exploded at Krasnodar, where he has played since 2015, having scored 39 goals in 62 matches across all competitions for the club from southern Russia.
Qualities
As those impressive numbers indicate, Smolov has a knack for goals. He can score in a variety of ways, often needing only one touch thanks to his good positioning in the penalty box.
As the video below shows, his shooting technique also allows him to be dangerous from range, making him a constant source of unease for defenders:
It would be wrong to characterise the 26-year-old as a pure finisher, however. On the contrary, he is quite involved in attacking moves for Krasnodar, his experience playing around a front man clearly paying off.
He will appear anywhere across the front line for his team even when deployed as the classic No. 9 in the middle, allowing team-mates to make runs into the most advanced spaces on the pitch. Because he is so dangerous from almost anywhere, defenders tend to follow him around, which can cause confusion in the centre.
Applied to Dortmund, that could mean evasive movement from Smolov puts someone like Reus or Ousmane Dembele in a position to score.
The Westfalenstadion crowd got a taste of this potential strategy last season, when the two teams played against each other in the UEFA Europa League group stage.
In the video below, Smolov moved to the left wing, got past right-back Matthias Ginter with a nice piece of footwork and played a perfect pass to Pavel Mamaev:
The dribble against Ginter showed a general strength of Smolov's. He combines the physicality of a man of 187 cm with the quick hips and feet of a shifty winger. He holds up well in duels against imposing defenders and has the agility to get past them on the ground.
His technique is arguably better than Aubameyang's, who—for all his amazing qualities—has a somewhat erratic first touch and does not particularly excel in close encounters with centre-backs when playing with his back to goal.
Smolov does well in those situations, shielding the ball with his physicality, snatching it out of the air with his technique and processing it with his agility. The video below is exemplary of his work as a target man:
Importantly, his contributions are not solely focused on attacking.
If you want to play in the Bundesliga and, especially, for Tuchel, you had better put in the necessary work when the opponent is on the ball.
Smolov does his share of grunt work from the striker position, whether it is running at defenders in the buildup or closing down opponents in counter-pressing after losing the ball.
In the video below, his dedicated effort prevents a potential counter-attack in the dying moments of a frustrating goalless draw against mid-table side Ufa FK.
Remaining Questions
While he has the quality to play for a club of Dortmund's calibre, a few questions about Smolov remain. For starters, he will be 27 in February, making him little over six months younger than Aubameyang.
With the star striker repeatedly hinting at an exit from the Westfalenstadion at some point in the not-too-distant future, Dortmund would do well to sign a younger striker to learn as a back-up before taking over from the Gabonese whenever he leaves for greener pastures.
There is also the matter of a potential culture shock for Smolov, who has spent all but half a season in the Russian Premier League—in 2010, he spent six largely forgettable months with Feyenoord.
Russian players rarely leave their home country, and those who have made the jump to other European Leagues have enjoyed mixed success at best. For every Roman Pavlyuchenko becoming a cult hero for Tottenham Hotspur, as Thomas Cooper detailed for B/R, there was a Yuri Zhirkov not cutting it at Chelsea.
Dortmund would need to be certain Smolov can handle the change in culture, language and league before making a significant investment. Veth supposed Krasnodar could sell him "for between €15 million and €20 million," which "would allow Krasnodar to make much-needed investments in their squad."
Going by his qualities, Smolov would be worth such a price. He could be a strong back-up for Aubameyang or play together with the Gabonese in a way Tuchel has mostly unsuccessfully tried with Ramos.
If he does not go to Dortmund, Smolov should improve another team in one of Europe's better leagues.
All performance data via Transfermarkt.com
Lars Pollmann also writes for The Yellow Wall. You can follow him on Twitter.
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