Bayern Munich UCL Draw Is Not the Nightmare It First Appears for Arsenal

As Arsene Wenger watched the Champions League draw unfold, it must all have felt horribly familiar. As Ruud Gullit revealed that Arsenal would face Bayern Munich, the manager's heart may have temporarily sunk.

After all, the Gunners have faced the German outfit in four out of the last five European campaigns—and generally, it hasn’t gone well for Arsenal. 

However, this is no time for despondency. There have been signs this season that the power balance between the two teams may be shifting. When this tie comes around in 2017, Arsenal have the capacity to eliminate the Bavarian giants.

Prior to the draw, Wenger spoke about hoping for some "luck." He told Rob Kelly of Arsenal's website:

"

It looks like [there are more contenders]. No team is super, super favourite and everybody can have a chance.

The quality of the draw, or the luck of the draw, could have a part to play as well because we know now that after finishing top of the group, our second game is at home.

So that gives you a psychological advantage and we just have to look at it and deal with it after. 

"

He’ll consider himself unfortunate to see his side plucked out to face Bayern, especially after Arsenal managed to break their habit and finish top of the group. Wenger could be forgiven for wondering whether it was worth it. However, this is a new Bayern—and one that could be more vulnerable than it has been for years.

It has not been a straightforward start to life in Bavaria for new boss Carlo Ancelotti. Replacing Pep Guardiola was never going to be an easy task, but Ancelotti appeared to have the natural authority to fill the void. It was, on the surface, a sensible appointment; the Italian is generally regarded as a safe pair of hands and is one of European football’s most successful managers.

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However, his Bayern have yet to find a new identity. As Manchester City fans are discovering, Guardiola is a purist—his sides play in a definable way. It’s a game based on ball retention and pressing, one that is exhausting and exhilarating in equal measure.

Thus far, it’s not been easy to discern precisely what Ancelotti’s Bayern are all about. There seems to be a greater emphasis on using the flanks, but the pace of their play is slower this season.

That shouldn’t be a great surprise given how old some of their stars are. Franck Ribery and Arjen Robben are the men stationed on the wings, but they’re now 33 and 32 respectively. They still retain much of their skill and goal threat, but it’s inevitable that they will have lost some of their blistering pace.

Philipp Lahm exemplified Bayern’s versatility and intelligence under Guardiola. However, the former Germany captain is now 33. Rather than the holding-midfield role he occasionally played under the former boss, Lahm has largely been confined to the right-back spot this season, reducing his influence on the game.

It’s not just the older players whose performance levels have dropped. Remarkably, Thomas Muller’s 12 Bundesliga appearances have yielded just one goal. Alternating between a role on the right wing and the No. 10 position, Muller has yet to find his feet in Ancelotti’s side.

Their lowest point of the campaign arguably came in the Champions League in November, when they were beaten 3-2 by the unfancied FC Rostov. The result, combined with Atletico Madrid’s 2-0 win over PSV Eindhoven on the same evening, confirmed Bayern would finish the group as runners-up. It also meant Bayern lost back-to-back games across all competitions for the first time since May 2015.  

It would be wrong to suggest they are having a poor season—after all, they’re top of the Bundesliga table. No team in German’s top division has scored more (34) or conceded fewer (nine) goals. Bayern might still be Germany’s best, but the suspicion lingers that they’re not quite as strong as they have been in recent years.

Arsenal, on the other hand, look a far better side than the one that was thrashed 5-1 in Munich a year ago. In that match, the Gunners’ defending was utterly diabolical. Afterward, a shellshocked Arsene Wenger said, per David Hytner of the Guardian:

"

You have to give credit to Bayern for their quality. On top of that, we made things quite easy for them with our defensive performance. We were extremely poor defensively. We were not at the races. When we went forward, we had chances but with a defensive performance like that, you go nowhere. 

I can’t tell you if it’s the worst of my tenure. It will not remain in my memory for anything positive. You know you can’t be too negative but you also have to face reality. Our performance was not good enough. We live in a world where you have to face reality. 

"

However, Wenger might have offered some mitigation to explain his team’s performance. Arsenal did go into that game without Hector Bellerin and Laurent Koscielny—arguably two of his side’s better defenders. Since then, they’ve added Germany international Shkodran Mustafi to the mix, while Granit Xhaka affords extra protection in front of the back four.

The arrivals of Mustafi and Xhaka have also helped add physical power and psychological maturity to Arsenal’s ranks.

Wenger was particularly keen to play up the latter quality in his press conference ahead of Tuesday's game with Everton:

"

The strong mentality of the players is first down to the fact that we have more maturity in the squad and that the players are more experienced. We played for many years with a very young squad, so under pressure they are a bit more vulnerable. Also, it is linked to the recent history of the team - we have not lost for a long time and that creates as well strength in the squad and belief, and trust, and that is of course much more linked with that.

"

Arsenal have a growing mental strength and momentum in their favour. If they can keep their key players fit until they face Bayern in February, they must feel they have a strong chance of overturning the German champions. 

Arsenal club secretary David Miles told BT Sport (h/t BBC): "We are through to the knockout stage for the 14th consecutive season, which is testament to...Wenger and the teams throughout that time. But the fans will think we have got the rough end of the draw again—at some stage, the tide has got to turn, and we will beat them."

Miles is right. It is time for the tide to shift and time for Arsenal to reach the Champions League quarter-finals. Bayern will be a huge test, but it’s one this team is capable of passing.

James McNicholas is Bleacher Report's lead Arsenal correspondent and will be following the club from a London base throughout 2016/17. Follow him on Twitter here.