Cactus Bowl: Preview, Predictions for Boise State vs. Baylor
The Cactus Bowl will feature Boise State (10-2) from the Mountain West and Baylor (6-6) from the Big 12, but their individual paths to bowl season are starkly different. The Broncos finished 10-2 with wins over Washington State and BYU, while the Bears enter with six straight losses after a 6-0 start.
Per Scout.com, Jim Grobe plans to retire after the bowl game, spending one season as the interim head coach at Baylor. Sending him out on a high note would be a nice parting gift, especially considering the responsibility he took with the position.
Boise State head coach Bryan Harsin has been rumored as a candidate for the Oregon coaching vacancy, so potential distractions could arise there. His 38-13 record at Boise State speaks for itself, and he will have the opportunity to win his third bowl game in that many attempts at the school with a victory over Baylor.
Viewing Information
Date: Dec. 27
Time: 10:15 p.m. ET
Location: Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona
TV: ESPN
Tale of the Tape
1 of 7As you can tell from the stats, neither team has defended the run very well. Both teams feature talented running backs, and Baylor has averaged 247 yards per game on the ground. Closing up gaps and keeping backs from reaching the defense's second level will be important for both squads.
Boise State will also have opportunities to throw the ball, as its 16th-ranked pass offense faces a Baylor squad that gives up 214 yards per game through the air.
Keys to Victory for Boise State
2 of 7
Don't Get Too Fancy, Just Run the Football
Jeremy McNichols is having a huge season, rushing for 1,663 yards and 23 touchdowns. To his advantage, Baylor's defense has been awful against the run. The Broncos don't need to get fancy or try anything new. They just need to feed their all-conference running back and let him run wild.
Make Baylor Throw the Ball
Zach Smith took over as Baylor's quarterback after Seth Russell suffered a season-ending ankle injury against Oklahoma. In his three starts, the freshman has six interceptions and has been sacked 11 times. He can make the deep throws, but putting the ball in his hands is the best shot for Boise State. Look for the Broncos to play aggressively and force quicker decisions from Baylor's freshman signal-caller.
Keys to Victory for Baylor
3 of 7
Force Turnovers
Baylor's defense has been awful this year, and that's no secret. The Bears have given up 40 or more points five times, including a season-high 62 points to TCU. Grobe's defense has 19 takeaways, and it will likely need to force a couple of turnovers to beat Boise State.
Getting Big Plays on Offense
Smith has made big plays through the air, and Baylor will need more of that against Boise State. With weapons like K.D. Cannon and Ishmael Zamora at wide receiver, the Bears need to take chances down the field to win this game. Spreading the defense out could also open up some holes for Baylor's running backs.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Players to Watch for Boise State
4 of 7
Jeremy McNichols
McNichols was instrumental in Boise State's 55-7 win over Northern Illinois in the Poinsettia Bowl last year, accounting for 189 total yards and three touchdowns. With Baylor's struggles against the run, it could be another big game for Boise State's junior running back.
Brett Rypien
While Rypien is just a sophomore, it's hard to find many quarterbacks more efficient for their particular offense. He is accurate, completing 61.8 percent of his passes, and he has thrown just six interceptions compared to 23 touchdowns. The Broncos have a good chance of winning this game if Rypien protects the football.
Players to Watch for Baylor
5 of 7
Zach Smith
Russell's injury forced Smith into action earlier than expected, and he has struggled with interceptions through three career starts. The Bears can't afford to turn the ball over in this one, and they will need their freshman quarterback to make plays down the field.
Terence Williams
If there's one area Baylor specifically needs to attack, it's on the ground. Boise State has been susceptible against the run, so getting Williams going early will be important. The sophomore needs just 55 yards to reach the 1,000-yard mark for the season, and he has combined for 237 yards over the last two games.
What They're Saying
6 of 7
The season didn't end the way Grobe expected, but he expressed his excitement about the upcoming Cactus Bowl in Sunday's teleconference with both head coaches. He told the media, "Playing against Boise State, one of the great football programs in the country and coming off a great season, will be a real challenge for us, but I'm excited for our players to have that opportunity."
Grobe has been proud of the way his players responded to adversity, saying "we have had a lot of different challenges this year. But we have a lot of wonderful kids playing for us, kids that play really, really hard, that deserve another opportunity, deserve the opportunity to play in a bowl game."
Boise State's Harsin didn't offer much on rumors of him interviewing for the Oregon job, saying the matchup with Baylor is the focus right now. "This is really about the bowl game. That's the main focus right now. We just got this information. We're processing all that. That's really all the focus at this point. Our coaches are prepared to go out on the road and recruit again. That's really the next step for us. That's really all we're talking about today. I want to make sure that everybody knows how excited we are to go play Baylor."
Prediction
7 of 7
This bowl game is a mismatch—plain and simple. Boise State sits at 10-2, while Baylor limps into this one with six straight losses. Minus a hard-fought effort against West Virginia, the Bears defense has fallen apart in the second half of the season. It will be a big day for the Broncos offense, as the offensive stars will lead the way.
McNichols will be a factor as a runner and a receiver, accounting for over 250 total yards and three touchdowns. Rypien will spread the ball around to playmakers like Thomas Sperbeck and Cedrick Wilson, and he will add a couple of touchdowns through the air.
Like in recent weeks, Baylor's young quarterback will show flashes of his playmaking ability, but turnovers will keep the Bears from consistently moving the ball. Boise State has won five straight games over Power 5 opponents, and that streak will continue in the Cactus Bowl.
Prediction: Boise State 38, Baylor 21
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
