College Football Playoff 2016-17: Updated Odds, Predictions Against the Spread
The College Football Playoff selection committee ended weeks of speculation Sunday, when it revealed the four teams that will vie for the NCAA title.
To nobody's surprise, Alabama locked down the top spot after improving to 13-0 with its SEC Championship Game win over Florida. After fending off Virginia Tech in Saturday's 42-35 shootout to seize the ACC, Clemson will also return to the CFP.
Although Penn State won its head-to-head meeting against Ohio State and the Big Ten Championship, the Buckeyes will instead advance to the Fiesta Bowl against the Tigers. ESPN Stats & Info helped justify the Buckeyes' inclusion over the Nittany Lions:
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Washington received the bittersweet fourth and final slot. As a reward for the Huskies' first 12-win season since 1991, they get a Peach Bowl date with the Crimson Tide.
Per ESPN Stats & Info's Sharon Katz, ESPN's FPI identified the top-ranked juggernaut as a noteworthy favorite to win the national title:
All four teams and fans alike must now wait patiently until the games commence on Dec. 31. Plenty of time remains to dissect both matchups, but let's get a head start while looking at the early odds, courtesy of OddsShark.
| Sat., Dec. 31 | Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl | No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Washington | 3 p.m. | ESPN | ALA -13.5 | ALA |
| Sat., Dec. 31 | PlayStation Fiesta Bowl | No. 2 Clemson vs. No. 3 Ohio State | 7 p.m. | ESPN | OSU -2.5 | CLEM |
| Mon., Jan. 9 | National Championship | Peach Bowl Winner vs. Fiesta Bowl Winner | 8:30 p.m. | ESPN | --- | ALA |
Alabama vs. Washington
For all the uncertainty entering Sunday's selection show, everyone knew Alabama would hold the No. 1 designation. The only question was who would draw the unenviable assignment of facing the Crimson Tide in the semifinals.
Following Saturday's 54-16 victory over the Gators, the Crimson Tide finished the season averaging 40.5 points per game. Aside from a 10-0 triumph over the LSU Tigers—the nation's No. 6 scoring defense—Nick Saban's squad has posted at least 30 points in every game.
Not bad for a team predicated on defense.
Alabama has relinquished an FBS Division I-low 11.8 points and 247.8 total yards per game. The unit earned a 98.0 efficiency rating on ESPN.com's scale, which maxes out at 100. No other team netted a mark above 90.0:
| 1 | Alabama | 98.0 |
| 2 | Ohio State | 89.4 |
| 3 | Michigan | 89.2 |
| 4 | Wisconsin | 86.7 |
| 5 | Florida | 86.1 |
| 6 | Washington | 85.8 |
By those same efficiency metrics, Washington ranks second on the offensive end (86.0) behind Oklahoma's 91.1. The Huskies flaunted more balance than the Sooners and other contenders, also ranking sixth in defensive efficiency.
Since Nov. 12's 26-13 home loss against USC, their only loss of the season, the Huskies have registered over 40 points in each of their last three games. Yet quarterback Jake Browning has cooled off from a sensational start.
Over his first six Heisman-caliber games, the sophomore completed 72.2 percent of his passes, accounting for 23 passing touchdowns and two interceptions. Since then, he has notched a 56.9 completion percentage with 19 passing touchdowns and five interceptions over seven games.
The earlier, more accurate version of Browning must show up against an impenetrable defense led by star lineman Jonathan Allen. Having already compiled 33 takeaways, the Huskies will need a couple more to even the playing field.
Alabama is far more ferocious than any of Washington's Pac-12 adversaries, so expect another lopsided victory for the Crimson Tide with big plays from both units.
Prediction: Alabama 38, Washington 20
Clemson vs. Ohio State
Despite watching helplessly throughout the weekend, Ohio State received recognition for its 11-1 season culminated by a double-overtime win over rival Michigan. For the first time since instituting the CFP in 2014—when the Buckeyes won the national crown—a non-conference champion received one of the four bids.
While Penn State rates No. 19 in ESPN.com's team efficiency, Ohio State places fourth. Urban Meyer's team has also relinquished the third-fewest points per game (14.2) behind Alabama and Michigan, and opposing passers have posted an FBS-low 91.4 quarterback rating.
That sets up a marquee showdown between a stout secondary and Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson, who accounted for 43 touchdowns with a 154.0 quarterback rating this year.
Per The State's Matt Connolly, Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney touted his junior passer after Saturday's conference-title win over the Hokies, during which Watson threw for three touchdowns and rushed for two more scores:
Since the opening week's 19-13 win over Auburn, Watson has accounted for at least two touchdowns in every game. He completed 52 of 70 passes for 580 yards in Clemson's lone loss, and he has plenty of big-game experience.
Last year, the Heisman finalist took Alabama to its limit in the championship game. During a 45-40 defeat, he amassed 405 passing yards and 73 rushing yards with four scores through the air. Even against a prolific defense, the Tigers will put up points.
J.T. Barrett isn't as safe a bet to lead Ohio State to a fruitful passing performance. Over the last two games, he went a combined 25-of-54 for 210 yards. Against a Clemson defense that relinquishes 3.5 yards per carry, it will take a more efficient aerial performance from the junior to enter the new year with title aspirations.
Although the Tigers defense has displayed vulnerability in a few shootouts this season, Clemson has the offensive firepower behind Watson to survive another one.
Prediction: Clemson 34, Ohio State 31
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
