Analysing How Manchester United Are Placed Heading into the Festive Season

Manchester United's spectacular win over West Ham United in the EFL Cup on Wednesday probably came in the wrong competition.

A 4-1 win on Sunday would have been a huge tonic to the Red Devils' faltering Premier League campaign. But any 4-1 win is cause for celebration, and manager Jose Mourinho has to take any shot at silverware seriously in his first season in charge.

The fact United opened the scoring so early hinted it would be a comfortable evening, although David De Gea's spill from a Dimitri Payet shot allowed Ashley Fletcher to tap in a scarcely deserved West Ham equaliser. That knocked the wind out of United's sails for a while, but whatever Mourinho said or did in the dressing room at half-time did the trick.

Inspired by particularly excellent performances from Wayne Rooney, Henrikh Mkhitaryan and Antonio Valencia, United ran rampant. Anthony Martial and Zlatan Ibrahimovic got a brace each, and in both cases—for different reasons—the goals were extremely welcome.

For Ibrahimovic, it means his dry spell is well and truly over. He has five goals and an assist in his last four starts. For Martial, what better pick-me-up could there be for his relative struggles so far this season than taking his chance in the first team with such aplomb?

It brings his total for the season to four goals and two assists, all four of those goals coming in his last six appearances. There have been games within that spell in which he struggled to make an impact—notably Arsenal at home in the league—but the general trend is promising.

And speaking of promising trends, the recent factor that can arguably bring the most significant change to bear on the rest of United's season is the re-emergence of Mkhitaryan.

The best player in Germany last season, the Armenian has either struggled to adapt to his new surroundings or struggled to convince Mourinho he has adapted to his new surroundings.

It was pretty baffling to see him left out of the starting XI against West Ham in the league after his performance against Feyenoord, but it would be completely bizarre if he does not start against Everton at Goodison Park on Sunday.

His two starts in two cup competitions saw him turn in two man-of-the-match performances. In his post-match interview on Sky Sports, Mourinho said he was particularly pleased by the West Ham game in the EFL Cup given he had turned that performance in against Premier League opposition.

Second-guessing the manager's handling of the Armenian so far has been a fool's errand, but surely the time has come for him to get an extended run in the side. And there does not seem to be a good argument as to why that time should not be now.

On Wednesday, he provided two assists, made seven key passes and completed 93 percent of his 46 attempted passes, per WhoScored.com. Those are the impressive numbers. What is less easy to quantify—but no less significant—is that United's whole attack looked fluid, improvisational and dynamic with him as a central part of it.

That Rooney is enjoying a purple patch was helpful, too, as it meant that a great deal of the interplay attempted during United's buildup was effective.

But Mkhitaryan's vision, evident in his choice of passes and beautifully spotlit by his backheel for Ibrahimovic's opener was, simply put, on another level. He looks a natural fit for an attack with the Swede and Juan Mata as its other components.

Against Everton, with Rooney suspended, Mourinho should play Ibrahimovic, Martial, Mkhitaryan and Mata together ahead of Paul Pogba and Ander Herrera. It almost seems too good to be true to imagine that he will, but he should. With a crucial period of the season ahead, United should start on the front foot.

United's festive fixture schedule is not as brutal as it could have been—on paper, at least.

4 December	Away	Everton
8 December	Away	Zorya Luhansk
11 December	Home	Tottenham Hotspur
14 December	Away	Crystal Palace
17 December	Away	West Bromwich Albion
26 December	Home	Sunderland
31 December	Home	Middlesbrough
2 January 2017	Away	West Ham United

However, there is immense pressure on every game. Even the away trip to Ukraine to face Zorya Luhansk has added significance given it is the last of the group-stage Europa League matches and qualification likely depends upon it.

Up to and including another meeting with West Ham on January 2, United face a run of seven Premier League fixtures. That means 21 Premier League points are on the table; each is as precious as the last given the gap between the Red Devils and the five teams above them.

Of those teams, only Tottenham Hotspur (in fifth, four points clear of United) feature in this run, which is why it looks a less intimidating fixture list than it otherwise might, but Mourinho's United have hardly been effective at putting the teams below them to the sword.

Not playing teams above them also means they have no chance to directly affect their rivals. Their only hope is to apply as much pressure as possible. Given the fixtures, somewhere around 15 points would probably be about par, but the densely packed schedule and the form of the last few months would hint that a lower total is more likely.

That would be a real problem given what is needed—from now through to the end of the season—is a considerably above-par performance in terms of point acquisition.

One interesting wrinkle to the aforementioned suggested lineup that must be considered in the wake of the last few months is the Michael Carrick factor. Correlation does not necessarily imply causation, but the numbers are pretty telling.

Carrick has played 90 minutes on seven occasions for United this season. Of those games, they have won six, drawn one and lost none, scoring 20 goals and conceding six.

That is almost an average of a goal every half-hour, a scoring rate that significantly exceeds their one without him in the side.

There are many factors at play here. Only two of those were league games—the 3-1 win over an abject Swansea City and the 1-1 draw against Arsenal. Eight of those goals were scored against Fenerbahce and Feyenoord in the Europa League, opponents whose performances at Old Trafford could fairly be put in the "disgrace" category.

In truth, incorporating Mkhitaryan, Martial and Mata and giving Carrick a more prominent role are mutually exclusive goals. The veteran midfielder would most naturally suit a role in a midfield three alongside Pogba and Herrera, which would mean one of the above would lose out as long as Ibrahimovic is leading the line.

However, Carrick's presence in the squad could be helpful in terms of managing the physical load brought on by the fixture-packed festive calendar. That is also the case for Rooney. History tells us his form will not last, but it is much to be enjoyed while it is here.

The last few months have been frustrating for United fans, and if the season is to be salvaged—beyond any potential cup success—the festive fixtures will have to be less so.

The signs have been promising. Key players are hitting form, the team has hardly struggled with chance creation and a couple more big wins would ensure a much better Christmas than the Red Devils experienced last season. That was the low point of Louis van Gaal's entire reign.

This year, it offers the chance to kick-start Mourinho's tenure in earnest.