How La Liga Leaders Heading into December Fared over the Last 8 Seasons
Real Madrid's victory over rivals and neighbours Atletico Madrid on Saturday ensured that Zinedine Zidane's men remain top of La Liga after 12 matches, while a four-point lead over second-placed Barcelona means that whatever happens in the next Jornada, it will be Los Blancos who are top heading into December.
While there's still a long way to go in the 2016/17 season, it's clear Real Madrid have made winning the league title a priority, something they haven't achieved anywhere near often enough over the past decade or so—just three title wins in the last 13 years, and only one in the last eight.
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Top moving into winter and slowly toward the midseason break, is Real's top spot a good omen or not judging by the precedent set in previous seasons in Spain's top flight? In particular, those eight most recent campaigns, where Los Blancos have struggled to match their own expectations of regularly taking the title.
It was Barcelona who sat top heading into December last term, four points clear and unbeaten at home at that point—sound familiar?
That's Real this term of course, and the other good measuring stick is the points tally: If Real beat 18th-place Sporting Gijon at the weekend, they'll be on 33 points—the same as Barcelona last season at the same point.
Although Madrid closed the gap to within a single point by the end of the campaign, it was the Catalan outfit who stayed firm to take the title.
A fast start under Carlo Ancelotti made Madrid fans hope the Italian would continue the enormous success he had fostered by winning the UEFA Champions League the year before, but it wasn't to be. Real sat atop the table heading into December, again on 33 points, but they led Barca by only two at that stage.
Come the end of the campaign, the roles were reversed: Barca first, Real second, with a two-point gap the difference.
Madrid scored 118 goals that term, beyond what they're on track to record even this term—108 at their present strike rate—but even that colossal haul wasn't enough to land La Liga.
Winter of 2013 required a near-perfect start to the year to be at or near the top, and Real Madrid didn't quite figure in the equation.
They were third, with 37 points from 15 games, but looking up at both Barca and Atletico Madrid, who were neck-and-neck on 40, with the Catalan outfit top and having played a game less, unbeaten.
Real kept themselves in the running throughout the campaign but never truly looked as though they'd be the ones to push on and lift the silverware, which eventually went Atletico's way by three points ahead of both Barcelona (second) and Real (third).
Barcelona served early notice of their intent in 2012, winning a dozen and just drawing once in their opening 13 to lead the table—and only Atletico even vaguely kept tabs on them that term.
Atleti were three points back, but Real Madrid in third were already a full 11 points behind the Catalan side, led that year by Tito Vilanova.
Real remained unbeaten at home in 12/13 and surged past Atletico in the league table, but they never clawed back anywhere near enough points to trouble Barca, who picked up another title with a total of 100 points—15 more than Real managed.
Real Madrid's last title came in 11/12, with Jose Mourinho in charge and Cristiano Ronaldo the top scorer for the season, hitting a massive 60 in all competitions.
A packed early part of the season meant each La Liga side had already played 16 times by December, and it was Real who led the way on 40 points, three clear of Barcelona and a further four ahead of Valencia in third. To showcase just how much the top-flight landscape has changed since then, Levante were fourth, Getafe 10th, Atletico were 11th and Villarreal 17th.
Mourinho's team reached the 100-point mark for the season and lifted the crown, a full nine points clear of Barcelona by the end of the campaign. It was very much a two-horse race: Los Che ended on 61 points in third, 39 behind the winners.
As clean-cut as could be: Barcelona topped the table heading into December, two points clear of second-place Real Madrid.
Extrapolate that form across the entire season, and the expected result comes to fruition: Barcelona won the title, four points clear of Madrid, still in second.
It was another year where Los Blancos breached the 100-goals mark in league play but did not have enough for Mourinho's side to win silverware.
We're now straying into familiar territory, which makes difficult reading for fans of Los Blancos...but perhaps showcases exactly the kind of relentlessness their own team needs this season.
Heading toward the new decade, Pep Guardiola's Barcelona team led the table, were unbeaten and top of the table, 30 points from 12 games and two clear of Real Madrid. Sevilla were third.
A particular trait of Guardiola's, he and his side managed to hold off the threat from the capital city and ended the season three points clear, leading to Manuel Pellegrini departing the Santiago Bernabeu at the end of the campaign.
Real Madrid might have been reigning champions, but they didn't start the season like it. By the time December rolled around, Real were only fourth in the table and six points off leaders Barcelona, with both Villarreal and Valencia above them.
Bernd Schuster, the manager who had won the title only seven months earlier, was fired two weeks later and was replaced by Juande Ramos, who did at least initially spark a revival. By late April, Real were in second and only four points off the pace...but then they lost El Clasico and proceeded to see out the season with five successive defeats.
Barcelona took the title—nine points clear even though they also didn't win after the Clasico meeting—and Ramos departed soon after.
Back to the future
So what should Zidane and Co. make of recent history in La Liga? Almost without exception, the team top in December is the team top in May—but the one real footnote to that is that this Madrid squad, almost entirely the same under Ancelotti as it is now under Zidane, is the one that failed.
While consistency is an obvious trait for title-winners, having the relentless, determined mindset throughout the squad is perhaps more important than outright ability—and there, perhaps, this Madrid side can improve on the previous iteration.
It is packed with winners, as it was then, but since then, some of the key figures have had different successes: Pepe and Ronaldo with Portugal at Euro 2016, Gareth Bale with his Wales side in comparative terms, Alvaro Morata at Juventus, even Zidane himself with last season's Champions League.
They have to remain convinced of their own ability as much as convinced of Zidane's game plan, but if the recent Madrid derby is anything to go by, that's exactly what this group of players has in abundance even when form isn't as rock-solid as it should be. It's looking good for Los Blancos in La Liga once more.
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