Shot Analysis of Real Madrid's Cristiano Ronaldo
Cristiano Ronaldo: a man whose powers are on the wane, who has struggled for form this season and who, despite signing a new long-term contract with Real Madrid recently, is increasingly looking like age is catching up with him.
Or so the popular narrative of the early part of this season would have people believe, especially when Los Blancos went on a four-game winless streak with Ronaldo scoring only once in that period.
But the truth is somewhat different: a misfiring forward in a team that has struggled for consistency within its playing style this season, yes, but only by his own absurdly high standards. This misfiring Ronaldo still has more goals in La Liga this season than all but five players, three of them being Luis Suarez, Leo Messi and Antoine Griezmann. He still has seven goals in 12 games in all competitions, and seven in three for his national side Portugal.
Ronaldo has also suggested, per Marca, that his newest deal—which runs to 2021—will not be his last, and that he'll still be producing the goods five years down the line. He's confident as ever, so where is the reduced output coming from? Is it his own dipped form, or a team aspect? Is it wayward finishing, or the quality of shooting positions he's attempting to score from? And how can he rectify it?
Number crunching
Basics first.
Ronaldo scored 51 in all competitions last season, at an average rate of one every 84.2 minutes. So far this term, his return of seven strikes yields one every 148.3 minutes, so his production has slowed by around 75 per cent—but a simple run of a goal per game for the next three or four games, more than manageable for the No. 7, would drastically reduce that minutes-per-goal strike rate.
Perhaps the biggest indicator lies in the type of goal Ronaldo would usually score.
The chart above shows that by far the biggest bulk of Ronaldo's goals last term came from first-time finishes or chances which he could control and shoot from, mostly from close range, borne not just of his finishing prowess and composure, but his timing, runs into the box and accurate, low delivery from his team-mates.
Almost half his goals were either tap-ins from inside the six-yard box—often after a low delivery beyond the 'keeper and defence—or where he would pull away from his marker just in time to find space and provide an option for a team-mate to deliver from on or near the byline. Critics would have you believe that this type of goal, a close-range strike or merely a finishing touch from two metres out, are what bulk up Ronaldo's stats and thus show he's not always such a world-class machine.
They are both right and wrong.
Those types of goals do (or did, last term) account for a hefty portion of Ronaldo's goal count, but:
- focusing merely on the finish ignores the movement, intensity, anticipation and speed or power that preceded the goal itself, which are all huge aspects of Ronaldo's game that defenders fail to cope with
- even discounting the six-yard box goals (and there's no viable reason you would do so) he still netted 40 times across 2015/16, more than most strikers on the planet.
So far in 16/17, Ronaldo is largely running to form in the type of goal scored: two netted after a cross/pass/cutback from inside the penalty box, and one of five other kinds—penalty, free-kick, close-range tap-in, surging dribble and finish, run from left-to-centre and shot. Only a header is strangely missing for this term to complete his usual set, and then kick on.
Best and worst
If Ronaldo's huge goal tally stems from inside the penalty area, it stands to reason there are two key areas to explore: His own finishing, and the delivery which precedes scoring chances.
The following data contrasts Ronaldo's shooting, from La Liga only, between last term and this. All data in this section is via WhoScored.com.
| 2015/16 | 6.4 | 0.4 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 43% |
| 2016/17* | 6.6 | 0.8 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 28% |
The Portuguese forward is perhaps shooting from range more than usual, but there is no drastic change in the location of his attempts on a game-to-game basis. The notable drop-off is, of course, with his accuracy—how often he is hitting the target with his shots. That decrease in real terms means that if Ronaldo had the same number of shots this year as he did last year (which he is on course to do), instead of 98 shots hitting the target, only 63 would.
Naturally, it's going to lead to a decrease in goal tally as a result. Ronaldo's shot map gives another view of the same picture.
Above, his shot map against Espanyol last season saw him score five times from seven shots in a 6-0 victory, with his shot location pretty much what you'd expect to see from a left-sided forward: efforts across the face of goal, from left-of-centre or the middle of the box.
Contrast that with two games from this season, against Athletic Club and Eibar, when Ronaldo took 11 and eight shots respectively during the match, failing to score in either.
There's more insistence on shooting from outside the area, most probably because he isn't scoring as many goals and is thus eager to try his luck from any angle or range, while—against Athletic in particular—even closer-range shots miss the target or have a skewed angle to them, indicating (as backed up by watching him in games this season) his rushed approach.
Ronaldo is less dead-eye-focused at the moment of the shot this term, no question, but it's not the only issue at question.
Team dysfunction
Consider both the names and the numbers below.
Those eight players all figured in the top 40 of La Liga last season for key passes per 90 minutes on the pitch, per WhoScored.com.
From the group, James Rodriguez now barely features in league play. Jese is gone. Isco has only just come back into the side. Luka Modric has been injured, Lucas is only a super-sub and Karim Benzema has been largely unfit and atrocious. If all those players were the main sources of chances, and Ronaldo the main beneficiary, of course there will be a change to witness, either in type of approach to chance-creation or in the quality of delivery.
Benzema alone is proof enough that even the same player may not offer the same output, quality or quantity, from one campaign to another—he's down to just seven chances created so far this term. The rest of the side who are creating, can only do so when on the pitch:
Lucas has played only 252 minutes in La Liga, James only 208. Toni Kroos is now out until the new year, and Marcos Asensio has lost his place after a fine start. Upheaval, inconsistency and rotation in those who are laying on the chances for Ronaldo, are just as much a factor as his own lack of accuracy.
Portugoals
Getting back in form is no easy task for most players, but Ronaldo has long shown the mental fortitude, physical capacity and relentless approach to overcome a goal drought or a spell of below-par form.
There's no doubt he will continue to find the net, and a brace for Portugal in the international break will only help him on his way.
Madrid need him firing quickly, with a tremendously important run of games coming up, but there's no greater test than Atletico Madrid's defence for a player who has to not just be incisive and clever with his movement, but also possessed of a cold-minded clinical edge when a chance or two does fall his way.
Ronaldo hasn't been at his best this season, it's undeniable. But he's only below his best in the end product, not in the approach or his on-the-ball impact, and that is of immense importance to Madrid.
If and when Zinedine Zidane finds the right balance of his midfield, and if they, in turn, begin to function more cohesively and thus provide the front line with a more regular, predictable, familiar pattern of chances, Ronaldo will once again be on the scoresheet on a weekly basis.
When the team clicks, the sign is easy to note: the No. 7 will be scoring close-range goals from inside the six-yard box every couple of games, putting the final touch on a move that gets behind the opposition defence—and don't make the mistake of thinking that makes him any less of a machine.
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