Manchester City's Home Form Must Improve If They're to Keep Pace at the Top

It's OK for teams to drop unexpected points now and again. All of them do it, and it's the very idea that an underdog could play away at one of the title challengers and come back with an unexpected victory that makes the Premier League something that its fans tune back in to week after week.

So, in isolation, Manchester City's recent home form isn't a disaster. Three consecutive 1-1 draws, as Everton, Southampton and Middlesbrough all visit the Etihad and get a positive result, shouldn't spark talk of a crisis. There's still more than two-thirds of the season to play, too. 

However, there is a niggling doubt in that sequence of results that could be troubling Pep Guardiola and his squad. They're dropping points at home—and to teams that their rivals for the Premier League crown are likely to beat, with only the odd exception.

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Contrast how City dealt with creating a raft of chances against Everton and how Chelsea did the same­—one earned a point, the other came away with a 5-0 victory. 

It's typical of how football works for Everton's Maarten Stekelenburg to have two contrasting performances. There's nothing in it beyond luck, but City fans can feel aggrieved that he had the game of his life at the Etihad, saving two penalties and producing a stop that is a contender for save of the season before having a nightmare as the Toffees collapsed at Stamford Bridge.

Victor Valdes was in inspired form in goal for Middlesbrough at the Etihad, too.

Ultimately, City could have done more to win matches. Kevin De Bruyne and Sergio Aguero could have placed their penalties better and given Stekelenburg no chance. Aguero could have found the target when presented with a free shot from eight yards in the second half of the draw with Middlesbrough. 

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Against Southampton, John Stones could have not played Nathan Redmond clean through to give away a very soft opening goal.

All of these ifs, buts and maybes come early in the season so there is time to correct them, but they do have one huge caveat. It's happening in a year that's looking like one of the most competitive in Premier League history.

At the start of November, 11 games in, the top four are separated by just two points. That's happened only once before since the top flight reformed in 1992. Twenty years ago, in 1996-97, Wimbledon sat in fourth and were two points off leaders Arsenal at this stage of the campaign. In every other season, the gap has been wider—on two occasions as big as 11 points.

Dropping points, especially at home, is a bad precedent for City to set. It always used to be said that teams would go to Old Trafford in the Sir Alex Ferguson era and they'd be beaten in the tunnel. Many have been intimidated into submission before kick-off at Stamford Bridge, Anfield or the Emirates.

The same could have been said of the Etihad in the past, but it's hardly the fortress it once was at the moment.

Right now, it feels like opponents that should be beaten are arriving at Eastlands and believing they have a chance. Middlesbrough soaked up 70 minutes of pressure before launching into smash-and-grab mode. Everton left their own area once. Southampton put in a well-drilled defensive performance after taking the lead.

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It's not to disparage the quality of City's opposition—it's a cliche that there are no easy games in the Premier League for a reason—but title winners find a way to break down organised teams. It's nothing new for clubs to waste time and sit deep at the Etihad; City have coped with it fine in the past.

Their 2012 and 2014 titles came off the back of near-perfect home campaigns. Roberto Mancini dropped just two points, drawing 3-3 with Sunderland and beating the other 18 teams he faced at the Etihad. Manuel Pellegrini lost 1-0 to Chelsea and drew 2-2 with Sunderland, dropping just five points at Eastlands.

Those two campaigns have been comfortably City's best at home in the Premier League era, with both Pellegrini and Mancini failing to retain their titles as more and more points were shed on their own patch. Last year, the Chilean even managed the club's worst home record since Sven-Goran Eriksson was manager in 2007-08.

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To have seen City drop six points at home already—more than in each of their last two title-winning seasons—isn't a very encouraging start. Guardiola is still making his mark on the squad, though, and it should improve with a little more time.

There is pressure on his side to perform at the moment, especially when in front of 55,000 supporters at the Etihad. One misplaced pass or a bit of opposition pressure and the tension in the stands is palpable. It's what comes of starting the game and needing to earn the result. In days gone by, a 0-0 against some clubs was a good point—now it could mean losing ground on rivals in the table.

Having said that, unless the home form picks up quickly, it's going to put pressure on City to take points from their rivals directly.

It was the two derby wins in 2011-12 that set them apart from Manchester United. They had difficulty against some of the traditional top sides, though, as Arsenal and Chelsea both beat Mancini's team, while Liverpool held them to a draw at Anfield.

During their next title, Pellegrini lost at Chelsea and Liverpool, taking only a point from Arsenal. As if to demonstrate how vital the bread-and-butter results are, Chelsea finished third that season—behind City and Liverpool, despite having beaten both of them home and away.

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Since the 2008 takeover, City's record at Anfield, Stamford Bridge and the Emirates doesn't make pleasant reading. In 24 trips, they've won just three times—and one of them was a 3-0 walkover at last season's ridiculously under-performing Chelsea.

City have taken a grand total of 19 points from a possible 72 in those stadiums in the last eight seasons.

It's less encouraging still that they're looking like City's main rivals, and Guardiola's men have already lost at Tottenham, who are still clinging on to the top-four pack, a few points behind in fifth.

Season	Points dropped	Final league position
2008-09	18	10th
2009-10	17	5th
2010-11	14	3rd
2011-12	2	1st
2012-13	12	2nd
2013-14	5	1st
2014-15	12	2nd
2015-16	19	4th

Guardiola needs a near-perfect run at home for the rest of the campaign. There are tough fixtures to come, as none of the club's fellow top-six rivals have been to the Etihad yet. Already Liverpool, Chelsea and Tottenham have shown they can blow teams away and have improved since the start of the season—City might have started like a runaway train, but they're not in that kind of form at the moment.

Few fans are ever confident when going to the likes of Anfield or the Emirates, but dropping points elsewhere may mean there can be no mistakes in those matches.

Both Mancini and Pellegrini suffered blips in their title-winning campaigns and built their eventual victories on a string of good results, where City picked up points whether or not they had played well. If he's going to do the same, Guardiola needs to get another run together after only one win in his last five league games.