Revised Expectations for Manchester United's 2016/17 Season

The Premier League season is 10 games old, and Manchester United have not really enjoyed it so far.

It has had its moments, of course. There was an enjoyable opening-day win over Bournemouth in the August South Coast sunshine. Then came the thrill of Paul Pogba's re-debut under the floodlights on a Friday night on August 19. After that, Marcus Rashford ensured celebrations for travelling supporters in Hull by scoring an injury-time winner.

Later came the 45-minute demolition of reigning champions Leicester City, particularly heartening as it followed a distinctly wobbly patch.

But there have been disappointments and disasters, too. Losing to Manchester City at home—not just losing, but looking miles off the pace. The away loss to Watford—a dismal collapse exceeded only by the recent, chastening 4-0 hammering away at Chelsea.

What all this means is that pre-season dreams of a bona fide title challenge are starting to look a long way off. A little over a quarter of the way through the season, Jose Mourinho's men are already eight points off top spot and, even more worryingly, seven points off fourth place.

After the summer's splashy and exciting transfer activity, much better would have been hoped for by now. Mourinho's arrival, followed by decisive and impressive signings, meant surely things would be better than they had been?

Of course, a manager cannot be expected to work miracles, and the David Moyes and Louis van Gaal eras left plenty to be desired about the collective belief and overall balance of the squad. But 15 points from the first 10 games, with a goal difference of just plus-one, would have been considered well below par.

The manner of a couple of those performances—City, Watford and Chelsea, in particular—have worrying implications for what is to come. After all, what has substantially changed since the Chelsea loss to suggest such a result could not happen again?

Then there are the four points lost from home draws against Stoke City and Burnley where the performances were perfectly decent, but those four points are gone and will have to be clawed back somewhere along the way.

It is not all doom and gloom, of course. As James Yorke of in-depth analysis website Stats Bomb writes, "the simple truth is performance metrics are far more content with Manchester United than a plus-one goal difference might imply."

By his analysis, United's goal difference is a good deal worse than it should be based on the typical outcomes for the performances they have put in and the volume and type of chances they have created versus those that have been created against them.

The numbers, like many people's subjective assessment, would suggest better is to come as the season progresses.

But, in spite of that reasonable cause for optimism, even Champions League qualification already faces some significant obstacles. Five of the seven teams above United would have considered themselves serious contenders for the top-four spots before the season began.

Neither City, Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea nor Tottenham Hotspur have been flawless this season, but there is little reason to assume with any certainty that a major collapse in their points-per-game (henceforth referred to as PPG) acquisition rate is inevitable. The top three sides have been racking up points at a rate of 2.3 per game, Chelsea at 2.2 and Spurs at exactly two.

Their current rate of point accrual represents a fast start, and in all likelihood it will slow down a bit. United are the last team to have accrued better than 2.3 points-per-game by the end of a season, back in 2012/13. Of the past five seasons, only 2013/14 saw the top four all better 2.0 PPG.

But 10 games in, United being 0.7 PPG worse off than fourth place has to be a legitimate worry. Recent history offers some salient warnings.

Over the past five years of the 20 sides who have been in the top four after 10 games, 14 have gone on to finish in the Champions League qualifying spots. That, of course, means just six in five years have dropped out. Of those six teams, only two had a better than 0.3 PPG edge on the team that replaced them in the final standings after 10 games.

For example, in 2013/14, after 10 games, Manchester City were not in the top four and Spurs were. However, Spurs had earned 2 PPG to City's 1.9 by that point, so the margins were very narrow.

The two examples of big swings in PPG between the team who eventually finished in the top four but were not after 10 games happened in 2011/12 and 2014/15.

In 2011/12 Newcastle United were accruing 2.2 PPG during that first period of the season and Arsenal 1.6. The Gunners upped that to 1.93 in the next 28 games, and Newcastle, who had been outperforming all expectation, dropped to 1.54 over that period, finishing fifth.

In 2014/15 it was a freakishly good start for Southampton, which saw them earn 2.2 PPG for the first 10 games and grab a place at the top table. Van Gaal's United had got off to a slow start—1.3 PPG—but dramatically improved on that rate as the season progressed. For the subsequent 28 games, they earned points at a rate of 2.04 per game, and Saints' accrual rate dropped to 1.36. In the end, Southampton finished seventh.

None of Arsene Wenger's Arsenal, Antonio Conte's Chelsea, Jurgen Klopp's Liverpool, Pep Guardiola's City or Mauricio Pochettino's Spurs seem likely to meet that kind of fate. Newcastle and Southampton both represented a surprising addition to the top-four group and were replaced by traditional Champions League qualifiers.

As early in the season as it is, history would suggest Mourinho's United will have to be pretty close to perfect to make up the difference that already exists. Spurs, just outside the top four as things stand, represent at least as much of a threat to the teams in those positions as United.

Of course, United have the potential to dramatically improve the rate at which they have been accruing points. They would be on 1.9 PPG, much closer to the target they need to hit, had they scored one more goal against Stoke or one against Burnley. The margins of elite-level sport are often fine.

But they cannot afford many more slip-ups. The points need to start coming thick and fast over the next few weeks. 

Nov. 6	Swansea City	Away
Nov. 19	Arsenal	Home
Nov. 27	West Ham United	Home
Dec. 4	Everton	Away
Dec. 11	Tottenham	Home
Dec. 14	Crystal Palace	Away
Dec. 17	West Bromwich Albion	Away
Dec. 26	Sunderland	Home
Dec. 31	Middlesbrough	Home

If they are still off the pace by the turn of the year, then the near-nightmare scenario of having made a world-record signing and then not qualifying for the Champions League could well play out.

And, for now, talk of a title challenge would seem anything but realistic. Ten games in, anything but an outstanding season from here on out would see them fall well short.

Before the season started, in an interview for the Rant Cast podcast, journalist Andy Mitten told me that in a poll of supporters on the United We Stand Forums, not a single one had expected United to finish outside of the top four. Things have clearly changed.

"

[Poll] Are you still confident we'll make top four this season?

— Paul (@UtdRantcast) October 31, 2016"

Mourinho has a major job on his hands to meet even the minimum requirements of his first season in charge.

Points-per-game data courtesy of Statto.com