NHL Power Rankings: B/R Experts' Week 4 Poll

The 2016-17 NHL regular season is more than 10 percent over, and for some teams, it's more than that. As October draws to a close, it’s fair to say it’s still too early to call some things, but the trends we’re seeing are increasingly reflective of reality.

Already, for example, the Montreal Canadiens are 10 points clear of the playoff bubble in the East. If last year’s numbers hold, they only need to put together a modest 33-27-13 record the rest of the way to make the postseason. That’s seven games below .500.

This is also the most exciting time of the year in the power rankings because we still aren’t sure about teams. The Edmonton Oilers hold first place in the West; is it a sign of the club’s rebuild finally turning a corner or a false dawn? What about the Nashville Predators, pegged by many as a contender but who have started the year with an ugly 2-5-1 run?

To try and answer these questions and many others, we’ve turned to our expert panel. Adrian Dater, Steve Macfarlane, Lyle Richardson, Carol Schram and yours truly all took the time to go through the league and rank teams based on our interpretation of their early work this season. On behalf of the group, I’d like to invite you along as we consider the league’s 30 teams.

30-26: Arizona Coyotes-Vancouver Canucks

Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press

30. Arizona Coyotes (last week: 30)

A lot of the Arizona Coyotes' problems come down to goaltending. A year ago, Louis Domingue came out of nowhere to play 39 games for the Coyotes, posting a respectable .912 save percentage in the process. With Mike Smith hurt, he’s had to carry the load this term and has gone 1-5-0 with a .869 save percentage. Many of the club’s young guns aren’t scoring—Anthony Duclair, Dylan Strome and Lawson Crouse have combined for just two assists—and that hasn’t helped matters.

29. Nashville Predators (last week: 17)

After a tepid 2-3-0 start to the year, the Predators lost all three games they played this week, getting outscored 13-4 over a California road trip. That sojourn may hurt the team late in the year if it finds itself competing for a wild-card spot in the West. There has been a lot of focus on goalless forwards such as Filip Forsberg and Ryan Johansen, but the bigger problem is the long-overhyped Pekka Rinne, who is on pace for a subpar save percentage for his fourth time in five seasons.

28. Carolina Hurricanes (last week: 27)

The Carolina Hurricanes have been done no favours by the schedule, which saw the team play its first six games on the road. The Canes finally played their home opener on Friday, beating the New York Rangers 3-2. There are some encouraging signs from the largely no-name roster, but like most teams near the bottom of this list, they will need to overcome early goalie struggles. Cam Ward and Eddie Lack were brutal last season and have kicked off 2016-17 with abominable play.

27. New York Islanders (last week: 19)

The New York Islanders have been in games, and excluding empty-netters, six of their first eight contests have been decided by a single goal. They simply happen to have been on the losing side of too many of those games, going 3-5-0 over that stretch. On Sunday, New York put a convincing shot on against the Toronto Maple Leafs, hammering the visitors 5-1 to move to within a single game of .500. Thomas Greiss stopped 33 of 34 shots faced and is putting in a convincing bid to take over the starting role.

26. Vancouver Canucks (last week: 8)

The Vancouver Canucks took the NHL by storm, winning four straight games to start the season, making a massive jump from 30th place in our preseason power rankings to eighth last week. The club promptly turned into a pumpkin, though, and finds itself in a familiar place near the bottom of these standings after losing five consecutive games. The crazy thing is that the goalies have been good; somehow, Ryan Miller is wearing a 1-3-0 record despite a .939 save percentage.

25-21: Buffalo Sabres-Columbus Blue Jackets

Gary Wiepert/Associated Press

25. Buffalo Sabres (last week: 25)

It was a good weekend for the Buffalo Sabres, who beat the Florida Panthers and Winnipeg Jets in back-to-back games to improve to 2-1-1 on the week. Free-agent addition Kyle Okposo scored twice in the latter contest to climb to four goals on the season. He’s playing at a point-per-game pace in his first season apart from John Tavares. Ryan O’Reilly picked up an assist, and head coach Dan Bylsma has leaned on him in all situations; he’s averaging 22:16 per game.

24. Toronto Maple Leafs (last week: 24)

The Leafs got a much-needed win over the Panthers on Thursday, but that looks more like a blip than the start of a trend. Back-to-back losses this weekend, including a 5-1 spanking Sunday at the hands of the Isles means Toronto has lost six of its last seven contests. William Nylander picked up an assist on the Leafs’ only goal, meaning that despite being overshadowed by rookie phenom Auston Matthews, he’s now in sole possession of the club scoring lead, with 11 points through nine games.

23. Philadelphia Flyers (last week: 14)

Sunday's win over the Hurricanes was the Philadelphia Flyers' 10th game of the season and brought an end to a run of five games in only seven days. The Flyers have scored four goals in four consecutive games but went just 2-2-0 in that period, twice allowing five goals and, on two other occasions, allowing three. Jakub Voracek has rebounded beautifully after a difficult year, but with neither of Philly’s goalies, Steve Mason and Michal Neuvirth, anywhere close to the .900 save percentage plateau, it’s been dangerous at both ends of the rink.

22. Winnipeg Jets (last week: 28)

Winnipeg clawed and scratched its way back to .500 with impressive back-to-back wins over divisional rivals the Dallas Stars and Colorado Avalanche in midweek but then fell below that mark with a Sunday loss at home to Buffalo. One of the club’s major problems is a lack of secondary scoring. Outside the top trio of Patrik Laine, Mark Scheifele and Blake Wheeler, there isn’t another forward with five points on the year. The loss of Bryan Little in the season opener has weighed heavily on the team’s fortunes.

21. Columbus Blue Jackets (last week: 26)

The Columbus Blue Jackets are hovering around the .500 mark on the season despite getting Vezina-caliber goaltending from Sergei Bobrovsky, who has played every one of the team’s seven games. The Jackets have won just a single game all year in which Bobrovsky didn’t post a shutout. They’ve lost three times, even when he held the opposition to just two goals through regulation. If he can’t maintain his .940 save percentage, the team could be in for a long year.

20-16: Dallas Stars-Los Angeles Kings

LM Otero/Associated Press

20. Dallas Stars (last week: 15)

A 3-4-1 start is not the beginning to 2016-17 that Dallas, a club that should be a legitimate contender, wanted to have. Goaltending—as expected—has been disappointing, with the Kari Lehtonen-Antti Niemi duo battling mightily to hang around the .900 save percentage mark. Jamie Benn is off to a tough start, Jiri Hudler has been hurt and ineffective when dressed and injuries have taken a heavy toll on a team with a young defence and without the netminding to stabilize the rough patches. Things should get better, but daylight is burning in the meantime.

19. Anaheim Ducks (last week: 22)

The Anaheim Ducks climb three spots despite a mediocre 1-1-1 record on the week, but perhaps that’s just a side effect of going 3-1-1 after opening the year with four straight losses. It might also be the result of top defenceman Hampus Lindholm re-upping with the team a few days back. With the early success of the Cam Fowler-Josh Manson pairing (Fowler has seven points, and the duo has a 57 percent Corsi rating), Anaheim should be able to run two exceptionally effective pairings behind its somewhat patchwork forward group.

18. Ottawa Senators (last week: 21)

The Ottawa Senators climb three spots after winning two of three games this week in a road swing through western Canada. Goaltender Craig Anderson was instrumental in both victories, stopping all 59 shots he faced in games against Vancouver and Edmonton. Mike Hoffman scored the winner against the streaking Oilers, his first goal of the season. With that marker, every regular Senators forward has scored at least once this term.

17. Colorado Avalanche (last week: 23)

After playing five games in a span of eight days, the Avalanche took a five-day break, with a back-to-back set against the underwhelming Jets and Coyotes the team’s only action this week. They couldn’t score on 37 shots against Winnipeg, and a goal from ex-Av Shawn Matthias was all the Jets needed in a 1-0 victory. However, Matt Duchene scored twice the next night against Arizona, guiding Colorado to a win and pushing his team-leading goals total to five. The next three weeks are going to have a massive impact on the team’s season, with seven of the Avs’ next 10 games coming against divisional foes.

16. Los Angeles Kings (last week: 20)

The Los Angeles Kings failed to score a goal in back-to-back losses against the St. Louis Blues and Chicago Blackhawks, bringing an end to a four-game winning streak. Los Angeles is a perfect 3-0 in overtime situations and has a shootout win too, but it has not won in regulation yet this season. The good news is Peter Budaj played well in both losses, blocking 50 of 53 shots in those contests to settle an uncertain goaltending situation. He seems to be determined to claw his way back into the majors after spending the vast majority of the last two years in the minors.

15-11: Calgary Flames-Chicago Blackhawks

Charles Rex Arbogast/Associated Press

15. Calgary Flames (last week: 29)

The Calgary Flames' three-game winning streak came to an end on Sunday in a close loss to the Washington Capitals, but nevertheless, our panel saw enough in the early going to bump the Flames up from the cellar to the middle of the pack. The Flames are a touch under .500, at 4-5-1 on the season, which is pretty impressive given it’s been a struggle to get a .900 save percentage out of its goalies. Brian Elliott and Chad Johnson both have decent track records; if they rebound and Calgary keeps doing what it’s doing, the team should be in decent shape.  

14. Florida Panthers (last week: 6)

Three straight losses sent the Panthers plummeting eight spots in these rankings, though a decisive 5-2 win over the red-hot Detroit Red Wings on Sunday put an end to that streak. Jonathan Marchessault picked up another goal in the win, climbing to 11 points on the season. He and fellow bargain-bin free agent Colton Sceviour have combined for 11 goals and 18 points on a team for whom no other player has more than five points total. The two will be paid a combined $1.7 million this season and have basically already covered that salary.

13. Boston Bruins (last week: 13)

The rule for the Boston Bruins in the early going this season has been simple: If Tuukka Rask plays, the Bruins win. If Rask doesn’t play, the Bruins lose. The club’s longtime starter was able to play on Saturday and posted a 24-save shutout in a 1-0 victory over Detroit; he’s 4-0 on the season with a .958 save percentage. Prior to that win, Boston had been forced to use its third- and fourth-string goalies, and lost three straight.

12. New Jersey Devils (last week: 18)

The New Jersey Devils are in the ascendance, winning three of their last four games after opening the year with three losses in four tries. Newcomer Taylor Hall has five points over the run and is averaging just a hair less than 20 minutes per game; with five goals, he’s also pacing the club. New Jersey is narrowly losing the shot battle at even strength, with a 49 percent Corsi rating on the season, but that and Cory Schneider (4-2-1, .941 save percentage) likely equate to a winning record over the long haul.

11. Chicago Blackhawks (last week: 16)

The Blackhawks had a solid week, with a 2-0-1 record that included a decisive 3-0 win over perennial rival Los Angeles on Sunday. After allowing 10 goals in his first three games of the season, goaltender Corey Crawford is heating up, turning aside 91 of the last 95 shots he’s faced and posting a shutout against the Kings. Sunday’s game was also notable for its scorers, with Jonathan Toews finally notching his first of the campaign and Artem Anisimov moving into a tie with Richard Panik for the club's goal-scoring lead (six each).

Chicago could do itself some serious good by continuing its strong play over the next 10 days or so, when it will play four games against divisional rivals and a fifth against Calgary, with the potential existing for a Flames-Blackhawks race for a wild-card slot down the stretch.

10. Detroit Red Wings

Paul Sancya/Associated Press

10. Detroit Red Wings

Record: 6-4-0, 12 points

Last week: 9

Big Picture

The Red Wings have been a streaky team so far this year, and it’s still open to debate as to what kind of club they’ll be when 2016-17 comes to a close. A six-game winning streak has the team in a strong position in the Atlantic Division, but that streak is bookended by consecutive losses to divisional rivals. A shootout win over St. Louis on Thursday is all that separates the team from a .500 record, and while our panel is bullish at the moment, the smart money may be on Detroit once again fighting tooth and nail for a wild-card spot in the East.

By the Numbers

A strong start by both Petr Mrazek and Jimmy Howard has done much to compensate for underwhelming shot metrics. The Red Wings are last in the NHL with a 45 percent Corsi rating, though they’ve done a better job of getting shots on net than their opponents (being outshot by a narrow 216-200 margin). Over time, though, that kind of territorial disadvantage leads to problems.

9. Tampa Bay Lightning

Chris O'Meara/Associated Press

Record: 5-4-0, 10 points

Last week: 2

Big Picture

The Tampa Bay Lightning are here to a large degree because of their formidable reputation, but a three-game losing streak has undone the team’s strong early-season work, which saw the Bolts win five of their first six games. Tampa Bay’s stumble has allowed the Montreal Canadiens to take a massive early lead in the Atlantic, with the division’s remaining six teams all grouped together fairly tightly.

By the Numbers

At first glance, Andrej Sustr and Jason Garrison jump out for their lousy numbers on Tampa Bay’s defence. Garrison is minus-8, while Sustr is minus-4. Together, the duo has an underwhelming (especially on this team) 47 percent Corsi rate. Some of that is related to usage, though, with Jon Cooper’s staff using the pair a ton in the defensive zone. Sustr in particular stands out; he’s been on the ice for 49 defensive zone draws at five-on-five this season and just 22 offensive zone draws. Tie that in to playing against fairly tough opponents, and it explains a lot.

8. New York Rangers

Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports

Record: 6-3-0, 12 points

Last week: 12

Big Picture

The New York Rangers are winning, and they’re doing it without leaning hard on franchise cornerstone Henrik Lundqvist. Despite a modest .901 save percentage from New York’s most important player, the team is off to a good start and is challenging the Pittsburgh Penguins for the top spot in the Metropolitan Division. If the balanced scoring that has propelled the Blue Shirts thus far continues once Lundqvist finds his form, the Rangers should hang out near the top all season.

By the Numbers

Nine different forwards already have multiple goals this year, with Michael Grabner jumping into the team lead (with five) after scoring a hat-trick in Sunday’s win over Tampa Bay. Add in Derek Stepan, Jesper Fast and Pavel Buchnevich, all of whom have strong assist totals but no goals yet, and New York can boast four dangerous lines.

7. Washington Capitals

Nick Wass/Associated Press

Record: 5-2-1, 11 points

Last week: 4

Big Picture

The Washington Capitals took four of a possible six points in a swing through western Canada that was probably more difficult than what the team would have envisioned prior to the season. Washington, coming off a dominant regular season last year, looks poised to have another strong campaign. The Caps lead the league in terms of score-tied Corsi rating—and are second overall in the NHL despite playing a ton with the lead. Combine that with strong goaltending, good finishers and points in the bank after a good start to the year.

By the Numbers

Is this the long-awaited breakout year for Marcus Johansson? The 26-year-old scored two goals in Sunday’s win over the Flames and has nine points in eight games, putting him three points ahead of Alex Ovechkin for the team's scoring lead and giving him as many points as Nicklas Backstrom and Evgeny Kuznetsov combined. His 33.3 shooting percentage suggests a drop-off is inevitable, but even when that happens, this may be the year he finally tops 50 points.

6. San Jose Sharks

Frank Franklin II/Associated Press

Record: 6-3-0, 12 points

Last week: 11

Big Picture

After an indifferent start to the season, the San Jose Sharks rang off three consecutive wins this week, moving into second place in the Pacific Division behind the surprising Edmonton Oilers. Given how the Oilers have performed in recent seasons, that should put San Jose in good position to take over the lead at some point down the line. It remains to be seen how well the Sharks’ core of older players will carry on over the course of the season, particularly given the early World Cup of Hockey start many of them had. But for now, it looks like last year’s Western Conference champion is carrying on as it left off.

By the Numbers

Maybe the most surprising thing about the Sharks is how well they’re doing despite slow starts for several key offensive producers. Versatile veteran Joel Ward and free-agent addition Mikkel Boedker each has only a single point, while Patrick Marleau is below even last season’s disappointing 48-point pace. Just four forwards have more than two even-strength points on the year, so there’s a clear need for San Jose’s depth players to follow the impressive trail that has been laid by the team’s stars.

5. Pittsburgh Penguins

Derik Hamilton/Associated Press

Record: 6-2-1, 13 points

Last week: 5

Big Picture

Pittsburgh won all three games it played this week, improving to 6-0-1 when at home. We’ll see if the Pens can maintain that success when they head on the road, where they’ll play their next three games and nine of 14 in November. The club is 0-2 away from the awkwardly named PPG Paints Arena. The defending Stanley Cup champions have started the season well despite the absence of Sidney Crosby for much of the early schedule and are in good shape to battle the Rangers and Capitals for the Metropolitan Division lead.

By the Numbers

Crosby returned this week after missing his team’s first six games with a concussion. He didn’t show any signs of rust, scoring at least once in each of the three games he played and contributing five points in total over a trio of Penguins wins. Pittsburgh is on pace to fire a ridiculously high 83 shots at the opposition net per hour when Crosby is on the ice at five-on-five.

4. Edmonton Oilers

Bruce Fedyck-USA TODAY Sports

Record: 7-2-0, 14 points

Last week: 10

Big Picture

Despite a hard-fought loss to the Senators on Sunday, which brought a five-game winning streak to an end, the Oilers have to be ecstatic about their early work this season. Edmonton leads its division, and those points are in the bank. In 2015-16, the team didn’t hit the 14-point plateau until Game 20, and that’s been the average over the last three seasons. For the first time in a long time, the Oilers aren’t starting in a deep hole and thus have a legitimate shot at respectability.

By the Numbers

Connor McDavid's importance cannot be overstated. The Oilers outshoot the opposition by five in an average hour when their captain is on the ice; they get outshot by four in an average hour without him. That’s a nine-shot swing.

3. St. Louis Blues

Anne-Marie Sorvin-USA TODAY Sports

Record: 5-2-2, 12 points

Last week: 1

Big Picture

That 5-2-2 record looks pretty good, but if we nix the first week of the season from the equation, it becomes clear that the Blues could be doing better. The club has lost two of three contests in two consecutive weeks, going 2-2-2 after a perfect 3-0 start to the year. Doubtless head coach Ken Hitchcock would like to get more out of his team. Nevertheless, the Blues sit near the top of the Central Division standings and are thus well-positioned to compete for a favourable first-round playoff matchup as the year progresses.

By the Numbers

The Blues are another one of those teams that looks like it could use a boost in secondary scoring, though much of that is the result of an imbalanced power play, with two forwards (Vladimir Tarasenko and Paul Stastny) combining for 67 percent of all points by Blues forwards on the man advantage. At even-strength, the top six is scoring reasonably well, and the soft-minutes line centered by Patrik Berglund is generating results too, with the Blues averaging more than three goals per hour when the pivot is on the ice at evens.

2. Minnesota Wild

Stacy Bengs/Associated Press

Record: 6-2-1, 13 points

Last week: 7

Big Picture

What a week. The Minnesota Wild not only won three consecutive games, pushing themselves well above .500, but they won them all in convincing fashion. In total, Minnesota outscored Boston, Buffalo and Dallas by a 13-0 margin. That kind of thing does wonders for the goal differential and has propelled the club into first place in the always hyper-competitive Central Division.

By the Numbers

Devan Dubnyk was in net for all three Wild shutout wins and is now 5-1-1 with a .952 save percentage on the season. He’s still in tough when it comes to the race for team MVP, though, as defenceman Ryan Suter is averaging just under 27 minutes per game and has 10 points through nine contests.

1. Montreal Canadiens

Marc DesRosiers-USA TODAY Sports

Record: 8-0-1, 17 points

Last week: 3

Big Picture

It’s pretty hard to ignore a team on a seven-game winning streak and nine-game points streak, and that’s especially true when that team’s season is only nine games old. Obviously, the Montreal Canadiens aren’t going to go 73-0-9 on the year, and with 10 players (including three defencemen) rocking double-digit shooting percentages and both goalies over the .950 save percentage mark it’s pretty obvious this is a hot streak. Nevertheless, Montreal has a five-point lead and a game in hand on the second place Red Wings in the Atlantic Division, and that’s a pretty nice advantage to have in the bank when the inevitable rough patch rolls around.  

By the Numbers

It’s hinted above that some of Montreal’s record is the result of unstable percentages, and that’s true, but it’s important not to overlook the fact that in addition to those wicked percentages, the Canadiens are doing a good job in terms of possession. Montreal has played just over three hours of score-tied hockey at five-on-five, and have a 54 percent Corsi rating in those situations. That’s an elite number (only Los Angeles topped it last year), and when it’s combined with goaltender Carey Price and a bit of finish, it may well be insurmountable.

Statistics courtesy of Hockey-Reference.com, Corsica.Hockey and Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com. Salary information per CapFriendly.