Ole Miss Rebels vs. LSU Tigers Betting Odds, Analysis, College Football Pick

LSU owns a short edge in the recent rivalry with Ole Miss, winning four of the last six meetings outright, but the Rebels are 3-1 against the spread over the last four encounters and 7-3 ATS over the last 10. The Tigers and Rebels hook up for an interesting SEC West matchup Saturday night in Baton Rouge.

Point spread: The Tigers opened as 4.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 37.0-33.9 Tigers (College football picks on every game)

Why the Ole Miss Rebels can cover the spread

Mississippi had won two games in a row, reaching 3-2, but lost a tough one last week at Arkansas 34-30. The Rebels looked a little rusty coming off their bye week, falling down to the Razorbacks 17-6 early in the second quarter, but rallied to tie the game at 20-20 into halftime. They later took a 30-27 lead with nine minutes left in the game. But Ole Miss allowed a 10-play, 56-yard drive for an Arkansas score with just over two minutes left, then came up short on a fourth down, suffering an upset as a 10-point favorite.

Senior quarterback Chad Kelly led the comeback for the Rebels, throwing for 253 yards and one touchdown, and running for 89 yards and two more scores, including a 17-yard jaunt that gave Ole Miss its only lead. However, he also tossed a pick in Hogs territory and lost a fumble on the Rebels' final possession.

Still, one gets the feeling Ole Miss is never out of a game as long as Kelly is still upright.

Why the LSU Tigers can cover the spread

LSU is 2-0 both SU and ATS since interim head coach Ed Orgeron took over for the fired Les Miles, after smashing Southern Miss last week 45-10. The Tigers actually spotted the Golden Eagles an early touchdown, and could only manage a 10-10 halftime tie. But they drove the second-half kickoff to a touchdown and pulled away from there, winning the second half 35-0 on their way to a cover as 24.5-point favorites.

On the evening LSU outgained Southern Miss 459-242 and outrushed the Eagles 183-81. Also, quarterback Danny Etling only completed 11 of 18 passes, but they went for 276 yards and three touchdowns.

Three weeks ago, in Orgeron's first game in charge, the Tigers bombed Missouri 42-7. So perhaps the change is doing LSU some good.

Smart pick

LSU is averaging 44 points and almost 550 yards per game under Orgeron. And Leonard Fournette, who has missed the last two games with a sore ankle, is expected back this week. Meanwhile, Ole Miss is a little too one-dimensional on offense; Kelly tries valiantly, but he can't do it all alone. Take the Tigers.

Betting trends

LSU is 9-0 SU in its last nine games in October.

The total has gone under in LSU's last six games against its conference.

Mississippi is 4-1 ATS in its last five games against its conference.

All college football betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.