Fantasy Basketball Sleepers: Ranking the Top 10 Picks for 2016-17
Winning your fantasy basketball league isn't just about who you select in the opening rounds.
Sure, your team needs a stud on it. If you miss on your first and second selections, there's only so much you can do to make up for the mistakes later in the draft.
But chances are you're already familiar with the NBA's elite players. It's usually the back end of a draft that lets you put distance between yourself and the competition.
Identify a few sleepers—defined here as a player whose average draft position (ADP) on Yahoo falls outside the top 100—and you're well on your way to glory. Adding them to the roster opens up all sorts of possibilities later in the season.
The following players—ranked by how much they'll outperform their ADP—are your best bets.
10. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
1 of 10
Team: Charlotte Hornets
Position: SF
Age: 23
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 12.7 points, 6.4 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.4 blocks
Yahoo ADP: 145.6
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist's jumper may not work, and he won't provide your fantasy team with any triples. He's shooting just 26.4 percent from the field through five preseason contests and has misfired on all three of his attempts from beyond the arc, per RealGM.com.
But you're not drafting this 23-year-old for any of that.
He's been a reliable source of defensive statistics throughout his career, averaging 0.6 steals and 0.7 blocks. His board work is terrific—few other small forwards are willing to crash the glass with such unrelenting ferocity. And if your league rewards offensive rebounding, his value only rises.
It's easy to make up for his diminished scoring and perimeter shooting elsewhere, and Kidd-Gilchrist's contributions are rather unique for a 3. That'll be especially true in 2016-17 if he stays healthy (the question currently depressing his draft stock) and carves out a big role on the Charlotte Hornets.
Charlotte is better with him on the floor. Its net rating rose by 12.2 and 13.5 in 2014-15 and 2015-16, respectively, while he was playing. That's not likely to change as he maintains his point-preventing prowess. In fact, he should receive even more minutes if head coach Steve Clifford adapts to the small-ball trend and plays him at power forward.
Kidd-Gilchrist's upside is immense if he can figure out how to score more effectively. But his floor—again, assuming health—is higher than his ADP would indicate. He can help you avoid focusing on defensive stats in earlier rounds.
9. E'Twaun Moore
2 of 10
Team: New Orleans Pelicans
Position: PG/SG
Age: 27
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 7.5 points, 2.3 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.3 blocks
Yahoo ADP: 143.1
Finding sleepers is about pairing opportunity with talent. The breakout players are often the ones who have the capabilities to contribute in larger roles and are finally getting that chance.
We know E'Twuan Moore has the talent.
During his final season with the Chicago Bulls, his per-game numbers were pedestrian. But per 36 minutes, he averaged 12.6 points, 3.8 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.1 steals and 0.5 blocks while shooting 48.1 percent from the field and 45.2 percent from downtown. And that was while deferring touches to a number of ball-dominant individuals.
Now, he has opportunity with the New Orleans Pelicans.
Even if Buddy Hield develops quicker than expected—and it doesn't look like he will, based on his preseason shooting struggles—Moore will log big minutes while serving as a primary backup at two different positions. He's capable of spelling point guard Jrue Holiday (or Tim Frazier while Holiday is out of the lineup) as well as shooting guard Hield, and Moore may well shoot his way into the starting five.
Either way, there are few Pelicans who demand deferential offensive play. Anthony Davis and Holiday compose the entire list. Moore will get his looks.
8. T.J. Warren
3 of 10
Team: Phoenix Suns
Position: SF
Age: 23
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 11.0 points, 3.1 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.3 blocks
Yahoo ADP: 148.5
"As a threat from both outside and inside, it is expected that he will establish himself as a third scoring option in the starting lineup behind Bledsoe and Booker," Samuel Cooper wrote for Bright Side of the Sun. "[T.J.] Warren's off-ball cuts to the basket complement Booker's off-ball movement around the perimeter quite nicely while Bledsoe commands the offense."
At this point, we already know Warren can score the basketball. He possesses an old-school arsenal of floaters and touch shots around the basket, and he's perfectly comfortable getting creative outside the paint. The addition of a three-point jumper—he shot 40 percent from downtown in 2015-16—makes him more dangerous still.
Now, Warren is taking over for P.J. Tucker as the Phoenix Suns starting small forward. He works nicely alongside the other members of the opening lineup, as Cooper mentions, and he should spend even more time on the court as his defense continues in the right direction.
Of course, the young wing will have to improve elsewhere to become a true fantasy stud; he doesn't currently contribute enough in non-glamorous categories.
But we're talking about a guy on the verge of going undrafted in most leagues. And though points are the easiest category to fill, few late-round picks can provide this much volume without sacrificing efficiency or generating tons of turnovers.
7. Jusuf Nurkic
4 of 10
Team: Denver Nuggets
Position: C
Age: 22
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 8.2 points, 5.5 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.8 steals, 1.4 blocks
Yahoo ADP: 107.7
Injuries prevented Jusuf Nurkic from suiting up in more than 32 games last year, but he thrived when on the floor. Using physicality to his advantage, he averaged a stellar 17.3 points, 11.5 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.6 steals and 2.9 blocks per 36 minutes.
Let's put that in perspective with a full list of players who matched or exceeded all five of those numbers... DeMarcus Cousins came close but fell short in blocks (1.5 per 36 minutes), leaving the Bosnian center as the NBA's lone representative.
This type of well-rounded skill set is not easy to find, and it doesn't seem particularly fluky. Nurkic's numbers improved from his rookie season, but not by a ridiculous amount. Plus, RealGM.com shows he's averaged 19.4 points, 16.8 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.7 steals and 1.0 blocks per 36 minutes through six preseason appearances.
And lest we forget, he was taking the league by storm at the end of his initial campaign with some gaudy numbers and trash-talking jabs at established studs.
Nurkic won't play close to 36 minutes per game during the regular season. But he will receive significant run, whether providing backup minutes for Nikola Jokic or joining his fellow big man on the floor in the ultra-sized lineup head coach Mike Malone seems increasingly fond of.
6. Robert Covington
5 of 10
Team: Philadelphia 76ers
Position: SF/PF
Age: 25
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 12.8 points, 6.3 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.6 steals, 0.6 blocks
Yahoo ADP: 104.6
If you're willing to look past Robert Covington's inexplicably poor shooting from two-point range, this small forward helps you everywhere.
Coming off a year in which he made 2.5 threes per game while shooting 35.3 percent from beyond the arc, he's a capable marksman who possesses an unyielding green light. The Philadelphia 76ers still don't have many floor-spacing options, which makes Covington the man in charge of firing away and attempting to lure defenders away from the interior.
He's not a great passer, and he turns the ball over too frequently, but Covington won't be a complete black hole for assists. Plus, he records a strong number of steals and posts the occasional block. In terms of bang for your buck, he's giving it almost across the board.
Playing time also won't be an issue for Covington now that Ben Simmons is out for the foreseeable future. Beyond Hollis Thompson, there are no true challengers for looks at the 3, especially given the team's need for a capable perimeter shooter.
Covington is by no means a sexy pick. But sexy picks don't always help you win matchups.
5. Ish Smith
6 of 10
Team: Detroit Pistons
Position: PG
Age: 28
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 12.6 points, 4.0 rebounds, 6.5 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.3 blocks
Yahoo ADP: 136.4
This isn't just about what Ish Smith will do while Reggie Jackson is on the shelf.
Jackson, the Detroit Pistons starting point guard, is expected to miss between six and eight weeks with knee tendinitis—and Smith will be replacing him.
He won't be eased in, either. With only Lorenzo Brown and Ray McCallum on the depth chart, Smith will play heavy minutes driving into the teeth of the defense—replicating Jackson's contributions as best he can.
But even when Jackson returns and Smith is pushed back to the bench, he won't lose his value.
Detroit handed Steve Blake 17 minutes per game in 2015-16, and Smith is a vastly superior option. He'll be given plenty of opportunities to spell Jackson, keeping the star floor general healthy for a playoff run. They'll also probably play alongside each other in a dual-point guard lineup.
Smith is a limited shooter and won't block any shots, but he's a strong per-minute rebounder for the position and a deft distributor who can help you rack up assists. Plus, Detroit's system is set to boost the stats of primary playmakers. So much of the offense is about driving and either converting the play or kicking the ball out to shooters spotting up on the perimeter.
4. Cory Joseph
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Team: Toronto Raptors
Position: PG
Age: 25
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 8.5 points, 2.6 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.3 blocks
Yahoo ADP: 137.5
Playing time won't be an issue for Cory Joseph, even if he's not listed as a starter.
Take a gander at how the Toronto Raptors performed in 2015-16 with Cory Joseph operating in a few different situations, per nbawowy.com:
| Kyle Lowry on/DeMar DeRozan off | 628 | 111.7 | 97.9 | 13.8 |
| Kyle Lowry off/DeMar DeRozan on | 629 | 105.8 | 106.9 | Minus-1.1 |
| Both on | 475 | 118.7 | 105.9 | 12.8 |
| Both off | 315 | 108.3 | 108.3 | Zero |
No, net rating doesn't matter in the world of fantasy basketball. But it's still relevant here because it hints at just how much Joseph will play in 2016-17.
He thrived while working alongside Kyle Lowry, regardless of whether DeMar DeRozan joined them. He held his own while operating as the clear-cut leader of the second unit. And while he posted a negative net rating with DeRozan and without Lowry, that's not disastrous. He has to spend time in that role as the obvious backup point guard, and DeRozan's presence always seems to drag down the net rating (6.1 worse with him playing in 2015-16).
And since Joseph's now entering his second year with the Raptors, we should also see his levels of per-minute effectiveness and efficiency grow, even if they don't quite reach his peak from his time with the San Antonio Spurs.
3. Doug McDermott
8 of 10
Team: Chicago Bulls
Position: SF
Age: 24
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 9.4 points, 2.4 rebounds, 0.7 assists, 0.2 steals, 0.1 blocks
Yahoo ADP: 139
Doug McDermott will be the primary beneficiary of Tony Snell's recent trade to the Milwaukee Bucks. In fact, the whole offseason seems like it was set up to thrust the Creighton product into a bigger role.
Mike Dunleavy and Snell are both gone, which leaves McDermott as the lone established 3 on the roster. Jimmy Butler will begin games at the position, per CBS Sports, but he'll also spend plenty of time playing alongside this 24-year-old when either Rajon Rondo or Dwyane Wade needs a breather.
Beyond that, Chicago needs shooting, and McDermott is the man who can deliver it. Expect the Bulls to run out plenty of small-ball lineups that feature him at power forward and either Nikola Mirotic or Bobby Portis at center, trying to open up driving lanes for the backcourt's limited shooters.
Regardless of where he plays, McDermott should be a steady source of efficient three-pointers.
He made 1.4 per game in 2015-16 while shooting 42.5 percent from downtown, yet he spent just 23 minutes per outing on the floor. Now, it's even more imperative he connects from long range, and he's done exactly that during the preseason: RealGM.com shows he's hit a team-high 1.7 triples per game on 38.5 percent shooting.
Throw in the extra rebounds that come from increased minutes, and you have yourself a late-round bargain.
2. Matthew Dellavedova
9 of 10
Team: Milwaukee Bucks
Position: PG
Age: 26
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 7.5 points, 2.1 rebounds, 4.4 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.1 blocks
Yahoo ADP: 138.6
No Michael Carter-Williams, no problem.
Matthew Dellavedova is now the only true point guard on the Milwaukee Bucks roster. And while Giannis Antetokounmpo will handle plenty of the playmaking duties (and Jason Terry can run the show in a pinch), the offseason signing is still quite important—not just due to positional necessity.
Dellavedova thrived in an off-ball setting for the Cleveland Cavaliers, to the point that he finished in the 95.6 percentile for spot-up shooting with 1.24 points per possession, per NBA.com. He was at his best playing alongside LeBron James or Kyrie Irving, constantly seeking out those opportunities.
He should fill the same role in his new location, and the injury to Khris Middleton makes it even more crucial that he knocks down plenty of jumpers to preserve some semblance of floor-spacing.
"Delly is a perfect fit next to theoretical peak Giannis, but he might be overtaxed this season starting and playing without any real backup ball-handlers," Justin Willard wrote for Nylon Calculus.
In real life, that's problematic for a team with playoff aspirations. In fantasy basketball, that's not even close to a bad thing.
Maybe Dellavedova wears down at the end of the season. But his guaranteed early playing time should help him get off to a strong start, and you can attempt to sell high as soon as there are signs of wear and tear.
1. Bojan Bogdanovic
10 of 10
Team: Brooklyn Nets
Position: SG/SF
Age: 27
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 11.2 points, 3.2 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.1 blocks
Yahoo ADP: 138.2
Bojan Bogdanovic proved what he could do as a team leader during the Rio Olympics.
Suiting up for Croatia, he averaged a tournament-best 25.3 points to go along with 4.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 0.5 steals and 0.3 blocks. Better still, he shot 50.6 percent from the field, 45.0 percent from downtown and 78.6 percent at the charity stripe.
NBA competition is a bit more stiff than the international field, but Bogdanovic proved he could thrive as a featured option. Now, a Brooklyn Nets team without Thaddeus Young and needing to complement Brook Lopez should turn the reins over to Bogdanovic and see what he can do. He wasn't selected in the first round of the 2011 NBA draft just to sit and watch his teammates do the heavy lifting.
As Lopez explained to Brian Lewis of the New York Post, it's now all about confidence:
"[The difference is] just his confidence, no question. That's something we absolutely need him to show in this side.
He's obviously shown it in EuroLeague and in the Olympics. We need him to continue the same level of play, come out here, be confident and be that Olympic, EuroLeague self on the floor with us as well. He's out there bodying guys, doing his thing; and we believe he can do that here as well.
"
Even if Bogdanovic struggles to record defensive stats and is merely mediocre in other categories, few players available this late have so much upside with a guaranteed featured role in hand. If he's there in the last round, don't hesitate before clicking to draft him.
Unless otherwise indicated, all stats are from Basketball-Reference.com, NBA.com or NBA Math.
Adam Fromal covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @fromal09.
