Fantasy Basketball Preview 2K10: Guard Positions

Guards

There’s definitely an abundance of great guards in the NBA. Picking the right one is often the tough part, so I’ve helped you out by listing the best of the best. All your questions regarding young guns like Chris Paul, Deron Williams, and Derrick Rose will be answered. How about those injury-prone guys? Will Agent Zero make his return to glory? And will the old-timers, Steve Nash, Jason Kidd, plus others, keep up their hall-of-fame credentials or start to fade into hardwood oblivion? Read on to find out…

Note: For clarity’s sake, players who primarily are at the one or two are listed under the guards. Kevin Durant, Danny Granger, Caron Butler, etc. will be listed in the forwards list.

Top Twenty Rankings

1. Chris Paul- It will be interesting to see what effect losing Tyson Chandler has on fantasy basketball’s number one guard, but still expect a double-double in points and assists, along with a top three finish in steals. Emeka Okafor does provide a better scoring threat in the post, and is much less injury prone than the aforementioned Chandler, so Paul could pass for the same number of assists, but with fewer Sportscenter worthy alley-oops.
2. Dwyane Wade- Wade revived his career last year, and will once again have the weight of the world on his shoulders in 2010. Injuries are always an issue with someone who has to carry so much of the scoring load, but Dwyane is easily a top five pick regardless.
3. Kobe Bryant- Kobe is now 31 years old, and whether fans want to listen or not, the twilight of his career is fast approaching. This season shouldn’t bring any significant changes to Bryant’s stat line, but that means there won’t be any improvements, either. Phil Jackson might try to reduce number 24’s minutes to save him for the playoffs, but the competitor in LA’s top stud will probably try to put an end to that.
4. Brandon Roy- Brandon Roy plays in a small market, so his rise to stardom has been under appreciated. He’s fast approaching Kobe in fantasy basketball though, so grab him with a top eight pick if he’s around. With two pass-first PGs on board for the Trail Blazers, Roy should finally make the leap to a top-ten scorer by season’s end. He already grabs around five boards a game and dishes five assists, so if you are searching for one of the most complete options in the NBA, look no further than Roy.
5. Deron Williams- Deron will hover around 20 and 10 again this season, which is worthy of a number five ranking out of the guards. He’s one of the most vocal leaders in the league, but he can kill you in three-point percentage (not to mention he averaged less than one three per game last year).
6. Gilbert Arenas-This is a pick that definitely needs justification, so here goes. Arenas was undeniably a top-three guard when healthy, and a top ten pick as well. He’s killed fantasy teams for the past two seasons, which might scare people off. Don’t be fooled though. Arenas has been training with Tim Grover, who extended/saved the careers of Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant, and Dwyane Wade. He has decided to focus exclusively on basketball, and hasn’t talked to the media in months. I doubt that will last, but the bottom line is “Hibachi” has his head in the game and is ready to prove the world wrong. Swipe him up in the second or third round, and reap the benefits of a first-round talent.
7. Joe Johnson- Joe is the heart and soul of the Hawks, and should keep that up in 2010. Don’t expect an increase in any stats, because Jamal Crawford could take a few minutes of playing time. It won’t have a major impact though, so feel free to take Johnson in the second or third round.
8. Devin Harris- Devin blossomed into a fantasy superstar last year, and there shouldn’t be any drop-off for this year either. In fact, a higher scoring average is definitely in the equation with the loss of Vince Carter. The only issue here is Harris’s injury history: he has yet to play a full 82 game schedule, and is averaging 67 games per season since 2007.
9. Jose Calderon- Calderon certainly has plenty of guys to pass it to, with Hedo Turkoglu, Chris Bosh, and Andrea Bargnani all figuring to be double-digit scorers. The near-perfect free throw percentage is a nice bonus too.
10. Derrick Rose- Everyone saw Rose and the feisty Chicago Bulls go head-to-head with the Boston Celtics in the playoffs. For a guy that wasn’t supposed to make a big impact until 2010 or 2011, the new face of Chicago looked like a budding star. Without Ben Gordon returning, even more of the scoring load will be placed on Derrick, and he’s ready to explode. I foresee 22-25 points per game from Rose, but until he can develop a consistent three-point shot and limit his turnovers, he won’t move higher than number ten.
11. Chauncey Billups- Billups was the savior of Denver in 2008. He put up better stats than Calderon and Rose pretty much across the board, and plays on a much better team. So why the lower ranking? Rose is ready for a breakout season, Calderon is in his prime, and Billups is 34. We’ve seen the steady decrease in stats for Steve Nash and Jason Kidd, so there’s no reason to think Billups will be an exception.
12. Andre Iguodala- Iggy had to step up last year when Elton Brand went down early, and now he’s in a new offensive system with a young point guard (Louis Williams). He could get off to a slow start, but never fear. Andre is too talented to keep down for a full season.
13. Rajon Rondo- I was debating this spot for a long time. Rondo has the talent to be a top ten fantasy guard because he’s this generation’s Jason Kidd in terms of stats. He hasn’t matured though, and that could hold him back. Look for Rondo to be an enigma type of player who grabs a triple-double one night, and follows it up with eight points and six assists. His inability to shoot the long ball hurts if you want a three-point threat.
14. Jason Kidd- Kidd is getting older by the minute, but the addition of Shawn Marion will probably even out whatever losses Jason is suffering from physically. Close to ten points, ten rebounds, and ten assists should be in the cards again. Kidd is slipping in most fantasy drafts (I snagged him in round six of my league), so don’t be afraid to pull the trigger on him if he’s still around after round four or five.
15. Steve Nash- Tick, tock. Nash is desperate to play with a championship-caliber club, but he will receive no such help. Amare Stoudemire could have a monster season returning from a variety of debilitating injuries in 2008, but Nash lost Shaq and Matt Barnes and gained rookie Earl Clark along with Channing Frye. Not the best trade-off in the world. Still, 13-16 points and eight or nine assists plus a good three point and free throw percentage is attainable for Phoenix’s favorite Canadian.
16. Kevin Martin- No one questions Martin’s ability to score, it’s all about whether he can stay healthy. Look at the last two seasons: 61 and 51 games played. That will not cut it in fantasy basketball, so buyers beware.
17. Vince Carter- Like Kevin Martin, Vinsanity is always a liability in the injury department. This year, he’s playing with a championship-caliber club that’s more than capable of winning games without him. That means games off whenever Carter has an ache or pain—be wary of that when drafting a shooting guard. Carter also won’t have to shoulder as much of the scoring load, with three other guys who can go off at any moment offensively (Jameer Nelson, Rashard Lewis, Dwight Howard).
18. Mo Williams- Lebron’s partner in crime during 2009 will probably be relegated to third-wheel with the arrival of Shaq, but that doesn’t mean he will be any worse as a fantasy option. He’s a great shooter, he gives out six or seven assists, and will score at a pretty high rate. Mo is a safe bet for this year.
19. Ben Gordon- Gordon will probably come off the bench this season, but he’s grown very accustomed to that role. He’s a little iffy with injury problems, but when on the floor, there are very few players who can score like Ben can. He’s also one of the best three-point and free throw shooters in the game.
20. Monta Ellis- Ellis doesn’t sound terribly thrilled to be playing alongside Stephen Curry, and who really knows what coach Don Nelson will do with the allotted minutes for each Warrior. Monta is also returning from that bizarre scooter accident, so the question mark here is definitely his maturity level. He’s a great player when he’s actually playing, but that’s a little iffy in 2010.

Honorable Mentions: Jason Richardson, Baron Davis, O.J. Mayo, Stephen Jackson, Ray Allen, Jameer Nelson, Manu Ginobili, Michael Redd, Russell Westbrook, J.R. Smith

Sleepers

·        Allen Iverson- “The Answer” will have to answer a lot of critics if he wants another contract after this season with Memphis. Whether or not he lives up to expectations, Iverson should score in the 14-17 point range with limited minutes on a messed up team. He’s become grossly undervalued in fantasy drafts—don’t forget to give him a look in your later rounds.

·        Louis Williams- Williams will replace Andre Miller at the point, and has shown glimpses of potential the last few years. Now that he has the reigns, there could be a breakout season in store for the 22 year old.

·        Courtney Lee- If you were to poll a random NBA fan on Lee’s impact as a rookie for the Magic last season, they would probably bring up his missed lay up against the Lakers in the Finals. Looking at the big picture though, Lee started on a great team. He often guarded the other squad’s best player, and could knock down the three ball or drive the lane fearlessly. He’s now got a year under his belt, he’s on a young squad, and no one else can pick up Vince Carter’s scoring on the Nets except Devin Harris and Brook Lopez.

·        John Salmons- Don’t forget about Salmons, who was ranked 32 in Yahoo! Fantasy Basketball last year. He will start and play even more now that Ben Gordon bolted for Detroit, so another big scoring season could be in the cards.

·        Eric Gordon- Once Baron Davis goes down with a variety of injuries (as usual), Gordon should put up some nice numbers. I’m not sure how coach Mike Dunleavy is going to give minutes to so many different scoring threats, but Eric shouldn’t be affected too much. An increase in almost every category is attainable for the second-year guard.