NFL Predictions Week 4: Chris Simms' Weekly Projections

Carson Palmer's old-man noodle arm was easy to see coming. That's what happens when you're 36.

There was no predicting what happened to that defense, though. I was drawn in by all the names last week—Chandler Jones, Calais Campbell and Deone Bucannon. I thought they'd impose their will against Buffalo. I won't make that mistake again.

Other Week 3 mistakes to avoid: underestimating Carson Wentz against elite competition, overestimating Derrick Henry's role in a DeMarco Murray-centric offense, and estimating anything but an ugly game in Chiefs-Jets.

I've watched tons of film and applied my corrections. Now, I have a damn good picture of which players and games you should focus on when Week 4 kicks off. 

Upset Alert!

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Prediction: Chiefs over Steelers

Did you catch what happened last weekend to the Steelers?

That was Andy Reid's system at work. Philadelphia runs it well; Reid's Chiefs team runs it to perfection. I expect a closer contest but a similar result at Heinz Field.

Two reasons why: Reid's offensive line isn't the best, but it didn't crumble against tougher opponents such as the Jets and Texans. I don't expect Cameron Heyward and Stephon Tuitt to be as impactful as usual. Same goes for Pittsburgh's linebacking reserves facing the added pressure of a potential Jamaal Charles' return.

Reid's defense can duplicate what it saw on the Week 3 tape. It will deploy Marcus Peters as a natural coverage counter for Antonio Brown. Then, underneath, it will use underrated Ron Parker in a Malcolm Jenkins-like rover role.

Ben Roethlisberger's short throws won't be safe.

Biggest Cakewalk

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Prediction: Bengals over Dolphins

Don't be misled in this clash of 1-2 teams.

The Bengals are head, shoulders, torso and legs above the Dolphins. Their roster and coaching staff outclass Miami's. You'll see what I'm talking about Thursday night.

Geno Atkins is poised for his most disruptive game yet. I love what I've seen from the big guy on tape against top competition—and I fear for Ryan Tannehill because his team is anything but. Once again, you'll see a whole mess of opponent jerseys in the Dolphins backfield.

One of two options is in play for Adam Gase's defense. The Dolphins can play regular defense and watch A.J. Green smoke them. Or they can drop into a deep zone and let Giovani Bernard carve them up with first down after first down. Neither option looks good for Miami.

Matchup Nightmare of the Week

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Prediction: Broncos pass rush vs. Buccaneers O-line

You might see Jameis Winston climb into the pirate ship at halftime and try to sail away.

It's the only hope he has of escaping Denver's ferocious pass rush in Week 4. Like all his other options, it won't work either.

Think about who the Buccaneers will line up at tackle. Demar Dotson and Donovan Smith are middle-of-the-pack to end-of-the-pack starters. They'll be tasked with stopping Von Miller and Shane Ray—the best defender in football and the most improved pass-rusher in football, respectively.

Dirk Koetter can call any protection in his playbook. None will save Winston in this one.

Sleeper QB

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Prediction: Joe Flacco

Ratings and grades only explain so much about the Raiders' Week 3 turnaround.

Here's my take: They were playing Marcus Mariota. He has some way to go in his development as a quarterback. And as a pure thrower of the football, he's no Joe Flacco.

Baltimore's quarterback should have his choice of targets open at home. He can go long when Mike Wallace, Chris Moore and Breshad Perriman torch an overrated Oakland secondary. Or he can check down to a finally healthy Dennis Pitta over the middle.

Flacco ripped off 21 straight completions last week with smart, easy throws. Expect that all versus the Silver and Black.

Sleeper WR/TE

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Prediction: Tyreek Hill

Speed. Speed. And more speed.

Kansas City knows it has a 4.24-forty guy in Tyreek Hill. So, it will do everything in its power to get the ball in the hands of its modern-day Dante Hall.

The rookie out of West Alabama should be a real X-factor Sunday night. He'll take screens as a receiver (and maybe as a running back). He'll run simple swing patters or quick posts to maximize his yards after catch. He's a threat every time the Steelers punt or kick too.

There's no one fast enough to stop him on the Pittsburgh defense. Use this rookie, Andy Reid.

Sleeper RB

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Prediction: Jordan Howard

I couldn't help but get upset when watching Chicago's preseason film.

Jeremy Langford would take his starter's carries and put up unspectacular numbers. Jordan Howard would explode through the same holes a quarter later. What did the Bears know that I didn't?

Answer: nothing. They're turning to the rookie out of Indiana now that Langford is hurt—not because they saw him as the better option. They'll realize how good he is when he helps slow down a would-be shootout with Matthew Stafford and takes pressure off Chicago's passing attack.

Immediate-Impact Rookie

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Prediction: Malcolm Mitchell

No team heads up to New England and game-plans for a rookie.

They are too worried about Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman and Martellus Bennett and Chris Hogan and…you get my point. But that plays in Malcolm Mitchell's favor as he seeks to be the next go-to guy in a mostly underneath offense.

Bill Belichick had the Georgia product in for a reason. The Patriots like his ability to stretch a defense vertically as much as they like his penchant for making the first guy miss.

Rex Ryan's defense is vulnerable to both of those strengths. Look for No. 19 to pop out this week.

Best Game No One's Talking About

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Prediction: Seahawks at Jets

This September, vote for Seahawks-Jets.

It's the anti-fantasy football matchup America needs. I, for one, welcome an old-school, drag-'em-out defensive battle.

Both teams run the ball and run it effectively. Both rely on dominant trench play. And both Todd Bowles and Pete Carroll preach a hard-nosed philosophy that's lost on a new generation of flag football players.

I think we'll see a low-scoring game with few mistakes and several hard hits. Now that's the football I grew up with.

More Sacks: Seahawks or Jets?

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Prediction: Jets

Michael Bennett or Muhammad Wilkerson?

Cliff Avril or Leonard Williams?

Frank Clark or Sheldon Richardson?

There is no right choice between two of the deepest D-lines in the game. They're both capable of imposing their will.

Quarterback play decided this one for me. Russell Wilson is inarguably better when healthy, but he's not healthy. He won't have that magic escape ability against the Jets, and that's troubling.

Seattle will come after Ryan Fitzpatrick hard. But after last week, its game plan better include loads of quick passes and checkdowns.

Fitz and Gang Green get the slightest of leads.

More Passing Yards: Cam Newton or Matt Ryan?

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Prediction: Cam Newton

No one's playing better offensive football than Atlanta right now. I'm not about to take its quarterback over Cam Newton, though. I'm not that bold.

The reigning MVP suffered a deflating home loss last weekend. His team is in a position where it can't afford another; we'll see him laser-focused at the Georgia Dome on Sunday.

The Atlanta defense won't have much of a say in this. Newton will have all day to throw against the Falcons. When he does finally get the ball out, it'll be against a weak secondary that doesn't prevent big plays.

It's safe to say Matt Ryan won't have either luxury. Give me Cam.

Under/Over Texans Sacks Without J.J. Watt

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Line: 2.5

Prediction: Over

Romeo Crennel has one of the worst jobs in football this week.

His game plan? Totally scrapped. His players? Probably down after losing the source of their defensive swagger.

In spite of it all, the Texans defensive coordinator will piece an effective pressure package together. J.J. Watt is a generational talent, but he's not Houston's only quarterback-hunter. Crennel also has one helluva secondary to hold receivers up until other pass-rushers can get there.

The Titans line is much improved. I still say guys such as Jadeveon Clowney, Whitney Mercilus and John Simon get it done.

Under/Over Le'Veon Bell Carries

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Line: 19

Prediction: Over

Mike Tomlin might have spoiled this answer already.

But I believe him when he says he'll ride No. 26 in his first game back from suspension. Le'Veon Bell is the best back in football. He'll offer Pittsburgh the balance it sorely lacked in Philadelphia last week. Plus, he's one dangerous backfield receiver.

I promise you Bell's conditioning won't restrict him. At training camp, I couldn't believe how healthy he looked. He'll have no wear and tear from games against Cincinnati and Philadelphia, either.

He'll be fresh for Week 4. Pencil him in for 22 to 25 carries against Kansas City.

Under/Over Jameis Winston Interceptions

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Line: 2.5

Prediction: Under

No quarterback loves to take a few downfield shots more than Jameis Winston.

But he's smart enough to know his limit against this Denver defense. And he knows what the reaction would be to another multi-interception performance. Even with the excuse of the stacked Broncos secondary, Winston can't risk it.

He can hit Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson if they can break free. Otherwise, expect a chess match of underneath routes and checkdowns that keep interceptions to a minimum.