Kevin Harvick's Loudon Victory Typifies the Chase's Unpredictable Nature

This is the third season of NASCAR's current Chase format, and Kevin Harvick has mastered it.

Since the quest for the Sprint Cup championship became divided into rounds, Harvick has never missed one. In 2014, he won the Chase. In 2015, he finished second.

Quick! Guess who won the Bad Boy Off Road 300 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway? It's not a trick question; Kevin Harvick knows all the tricks.

Category	Overall	Chase
Races	566	122
Victories	34	9
Runner-up finishes	48	5
Top-5 Finishes	151	23

Harvick, 40, fares demonstrably better in the season's final 10 races—i.e., the Chase for the Sprint Cup—than in the first 26.

"You've got to be prepared...because you never know what is going to happen," Harvick said after his 34th career victory, "but I think everybody on this team knows that when we get to Chase time, it's time to put everything else aside. It's a balance."

Harvick, whether by instinct or preparation, has this balance.

"You think about all the races you lost and the races you've won, and it's nice to be on the side of not leading all the laps and being able to capitalize on a late-race caution and come out with a win where you didn't dominate all day and didn't lead a bunch of laps," he said.

In Loudon, New Hampshire, Harvick led eight laps all day and the final six. His Chevrolet bested Matt Kenseth's Toyota on the final restart, and that was it.

This is the third season of a four-round Chase format, and Harvick has advanced into every one of them. He was the 2014 champion and runner-up to Kyle Busch in 2015. Sunday's win guarantees that he will advance again into the round of 12.

Terry Renna/Associated Press

"The question is," crew chief Rodney Childers asked, "can we stop ourselves?"

The answer, so far, is no.

As NBC Sports analyst Steve Letarte told a national audience, "Harvick has never been eliminated in this Chase format. This year he can say that again."

The driver Harvick surprised at the end, Kenseth, is a droll master of understatement.

"I don't know," Kenseth said of Harvick. "He was first the first year and second the second year, so I'm thinking he's a pretty big threat."

Carlos Osorio/Associated Press

Harvick, who restarted alongside Kenseth with six laps to go, timed it perfectly.

"We talk about that stuff all the time," Harvick told NBC Sports. "For me, it was just a smooth restart. I just didn't want to spin the tires. I don't know what happened to him, or if I just timed it right. It worked out good when we got to Turn 1."

Kenseth is a pretty cool customer himself. Not as cool as Harvick, he conceded on the telecast:

"

I didn't do a very good job. I let Kevin lay back on me, and NASCAR had said something about the restart before that, and I have no idea what I did wrong.

I probably shouldn't have had that in my mind, so I made sure I got rolling early, and I spun the tires a little bit, and he got half a car length anticipating it and just did it perfectly, and beat me through (Turns) 1 and 2 and cleared me.

It's my fault. I shouldn't have worried about what they (NASCAR) said and just got to Turn 1 first.

"

Two weeks into the Chase, a system in which no one is better than his last finish, the favorites for the championship are Harvick, who won the latest, and Martin Truex Jr., who won the first (in Joliet, Illinois) and led 141 laps in New Hampshire before fading to seventh at the end.

It's almost absurd to declare a favorite after two races in a slate of 10, one influenced as much by fate and timing as speed and skill, but Harvick's brand of calculated persistence and proven aptitude rank him at the top of the figurative tote board. He needed a win on Sunday. The opening race, in which he finished 20th, did not go well.

Naturally, he won it.

The first segment of the Chase concludes at another mile track, this one high-banked, in Dover, Delaware. Harvick won it last year. Kenseth won the race there on May 15.

The first cut lops four from the Chase board afterward. Chris Buescher, whose Chase odds were always the longest, is almost sure to be eliminated. Jamie McMurray, Austin Dillon and Tony Stewart will race for survival either by winning or working their way into the top 12 in points.

Harvick and Truex are secure by virtue of their victories. Only a Dover disaster—early mechanical failure or a catastrophic crash—is likely to eliminate 2012 champion Brad Keselowski, reigning champion Kyle Busch and 2003 (pre-Chase) titleholder Kenseth.

The statuses of Joey Logano, Denny Hamlin, six-time champ Jimmie Johnson, Carl Edwards, rookie Chase Elliott and 2004 champion Kurt Busch are relatively secure. Kyle Larson's prospect is precarious.

"I'm not surprised," Truex said of Harvick's New Hampshire triumph. "I mean, they've been running well. I wish Matt (Kenseth) didn't let him win."

The beat currently playing is that of the shark in Jaws.

Follow @montedutton on Twitter.

All quotes are taken from NASCAR media, team and manufacturer sources unless otherwise noted.