New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Odds, Analysis and NFL Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistSeptember 14, 2016

New York Jets running back Matt Forte (22) runs with the ball against the New York Giants during an NFL football game Saturday, Aug. 27, 2016, in East Rutherford, NJ. The Giants won 21-20. (Ed Mulholland/AP Images for Panini)
Ed Mulholland/Associated Press

The Buffalo Bills will be looking to claim their sixth straight outright victory over the New York Jets when they host their AFC East rivals this week in a Thursday night matchup at New Era Field.

The Bills are 6-1 straight up and against the spread in their past seven games against New York but looked lackluster in a 13-7 Week 1 road loss to the Baltimore Ravens. The Jets have lost two straight since going 5-0 SU late in 2015, and they look to avenge a 22-17 loss in Buffalo in Week 17 that denied them a playoff berth.


Point spread: The Bills opened as 2.5-point favorites; the total was 42 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 24.6-11.2 Bills (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Jets can cover the spread

New York failed to convert its chances in last week's 23-22 home loss to Cincinnati. The Jets missed a first-half field-goal attempt and settled for a three-pointer after being stopped at the Bengals' 6-yard line late in the contest.

Despite the lack of finish, Jets pivot Ryan Fitzpatrick led a New York offense that controlled the ball for almost 35 minutes, while the offensive line sacked Bengals passer Andy Dalton seven times. While that ultimately proved inadequate against the offensively gifted Bengals, a repeat performance will likely be effective against the Bills' anemic offense.


Why the Bills can cover the spread

Question marks swirl around the Bills offense, which gained just 160 total yards against Baltimore. Buffalo quarterback Tyrod Taylor threw for 111 yards, including four passes for 43 yards to receiver Sammy Watkins, whose status for Thursday is in doubt due to a lingering foot injury.

Expect the Bills to lean on a stingy defense that allowed the Ravens to penetrate their 30 just once all day. Buffalo's defense has also held the Jets to 17 or fewer points in four of their past five meetings, posting ATS wins in each, according to the Odds Shark NFL Database.


Smart pick

The Bills closed out last season on a 4-0 SU and ATS run at home, holding opponents to 15.25 points per game and posting a pair of victories by double-digit margins. But Buffalo's offense has emerged as a concern following its most feeble performance in a decade. Taylor has now failed to find the end zone in three straight games, and he was sacked six total times in two meetings with New York last year.

The Jets defense has limited opponents to just 18 points per game over the past five road games. While the team's offense is not explosive, it should hold the upper hand in what promises to be a defensive struggle. Look for New York to halt its SU and ATS losing streak against the Bills.


Betting trends

The Jets are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five games against the Bills.

The total has gone under in the Jets' last three games against the Bills.

The total has gone under in 10 of the Bills' last 14 games as home favorites.


All NFL betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.

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