NHL Teams Most Likely to Regress in the 2016-17 Season

We are reaching the point where fans begin to talk about their team's playoff chances based on changes, and it is a very difficult discussion. Most of us see the preseason predictions come off the rails by Halloween, but there are some indicators that suggest a few teams are likely headed south in 2016-17.

Major losses via free agency or an infusion of youth at an important position—the Dallas Stars' defense is a current example—mean difficult decisions, tough starts and a season spent chasing the top teams in the division.

Predicting the teams that will take a step backward is a difficult task, and many teams that regress will still make the playoffs. It happens every year as coaching staffs and management teams struggle to rebuild particular areas of rosters on the fly. Here are six teams likely to regress this season.

Colorado Avalanche

Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

What did they do last season?

The Colorado Avalanche won 39 games but missed the playoffs in 2015-16. The club finished No. 6 in the Central Division.

 

Why will the team regress?

The major issue for the Avalanche one year ago—the defense—wasn't addressed at any significant level this summer. Tyson Barrie, Erik Johnson and Francois Beauchemin remain the most important contributors—as it was a year ago—but the added support during the offseason is well shy of satisfactory.

 

Outlook for 2016-17

Colorado remains a team loaded up front with a quality netminder in goal, but the defense is not good enough to push up the standings. Adding Fedor Tyutin and Patrick Wiercioch helps, but the Avalanche are badly in need of another real contributor. Unless the team can find a strong option to add to the current top three defenders, Colorado will once again finish well outside the playoffs.

Dallas Stars

Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

What did they do last season?

The Dallas Stars posted a strong season in 2015-16, winning 50 games and the Central Division crown. The club won its first-round series against the Minnesota Wild before falling to the St. Louis Blues in the second round.

 

Why will the team regress?

The Stars did not improve the goaltending position, which is a major concern. Dallas also turned over a bunch of its defense and will be younger at that very important position. Fans can expect to see increased playing time for young defensemen such as Patrik Nemeth, Stephen Johns, Esa Lindell, Julius Honka and Jamie Oleksiak. Shaky goaltending and a young defense is extremely difficult to overcome.

 

Outlook for 2016-17

The club has outstanding forward talent and an emerging impact defender in John Klingberg. The team has enough talent to be considered a playoff favorite, but winning the division seems unlikely based on question marks on defense and in goal.

Detroit Red Wings

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

What did they do last season?

The Detroit Red Wings won 41 games and made the playoffs in 2015-16. The club lost to the Tampa Bay Lightning but had a solid first season under coach Jeff Blashill.

 

Why will the team regress?

The leaders of the team—Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg, Niklas Kronwall—were all 35 or older last season. Datsyuk is in the KHL this season, as the trusted veterans from the glory years continue to fade away. The young group of Red Wings added Dylan Larkin last season, but it may take some time to return to previous levels—and that is if everything works out fine.

 

Outlook for 2016-17

Detroit has the makings of another strong Stanley Cup contender, but the exceptional two-way play of Datsyuk and Zetterberg will be missed when it's gone. Zetterberg led the team in scoring a year ago, but his 50 points in 82 games represents one of the least successful offensive seasons of his career.

Ottawa Senators

Chris Szagola/Associated Press

What did they do last season?

The Ottawa Senators won only 38 games in 2015-16, finishing outside the playoffs and left to face some major roster issues.

 

Why will the team regress?

Ottawa has some outstanding talent—Erik Karlsson, Mike Hoffman, Mark Stone, Bobby Ryan—but lacks quality and depth on defense. Despite a great deal of activity over the summer—including a blockbuster trade that saw Derick Brassard arrive from New York—the team remains weak on the back line behind the Marc Methot-Karlsson pairing.

 

Outlook for 2016-17

The Senators have one of the best players in the game in impact defenseman Erik Karlsson. The team wasted a year of his prime in 2015-16 by not addressing clear issues on defense and seem hellbent to repeat the same mistake this coming year. The team badly needs a young player to emerge but could have done far more to address the issue this summer. The lack of depth at the position probably costs Ottawa the playoffs again.

Philadelphia Flyers

Derik Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

What did they do last season?

The Philadelphia Flyers won 41 games and made the playoffs last season in what can only be described as a surprising outcome. The goaltending was very strong, and defensemen Shayne Gostisbehere and Radko Gudas filled enormous needs.

 

Why will the team regress?

Philadelphia made some interesting additions up front—Dale Weise, Boyd Gordon—but the lack of change on defense probably means more youth being added at the position. Fans may see Ivan Provorov, Travis Sanheim and others added as the overpriced veterans see their roles reduced again this year.

 

Outlook for 2016-17

Young defensemen experience growing pains, and that will probably impact Philadelphia—at least early in the year. Gostisbehere and Gudas should be effective again, and veterans Michael Del Zotto, Mark Streit and Andrew MacDonald should also contribute—but this is not a strong group. Playing rookies such as Provorov should mean the Flyers have a strong young defense this time next season, but the transition will be difficult.

San Jose Sharks

Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

What did they do last season?

The San Jose Sharks posted 46 wins and made it all the way to the Stanley Cup Final for the first time in team history.

 

Why will the team regress?

The biggest reason for what is likely to be a downturn is the aging of the team's most important players. Joe Thornton (37) and Patrick Marleau (36) are getting up there in age, with Brent Burns (31) and Joe Pavelski (32) also past 30 at this time. Only Logan Couture (27) and Marc-Edouard Vlasic (29) are on the right side of 30 entering the coming year.

 

Outlook for 2016-17

San Jose will make the playoffs, but it is difficult to see the team pushing into the Cup Final again this year. Several players are still in their prime, but the big part of what makes this roster special appears likely to slide in the coming months. Expect San Jose to make the postseason, maybe even win a round, but the odds are the club falls short of a return trip to the Stanley Cup Final.