BS Meter on Dylan Larkin, Jason Robertson and Other Trade and Free-Agency Rumors
From mid-June to July 2, there was considerable activity in the NHL trade market. Notable players such as wingers Brady Tkachuk, Alex Tuch, and Jordan Kyrou; centers Vincent Trocheck and Mason McTavish; goaltender Jacob Markstrom; and defenseman Darnell Nurse wound up on new teams.
Since July 2, business has slowed as the 32 NHL general managers seem to be letting the dust settle before determining their next moves. However, the recent blizzard of trades has sparked plenty of speculation in the rumor mill over which players could be next to move.
Given what few pickings remain in a free-agent market that was thin on talent to begin with, teams still flush with cap space could soon begin wheeling and dealing again.
Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Flyers' attempt to sign center Leo Carlsson from the Anaheim Ducks ended when the Ducks matched their offer sheet. However, that has prompted speculation over whether the Flyers might pursue a different target.
Follow along as we apply our trusty BS meter to some of the most noteworthy speculation to separate fact from fiction.
Will the Carolina Hurricanes Trade Alexander Nikishin?
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Shortly after the Carolina Hurricanes won the Stanley Cup, TSN's Darren Dreger reported that multiple teams claimed the champs were considering a trade involving Alexander Nikishin. The 24-year-old defenseman is a restricted free agent coming off his entry-level contract.
According to Dreger, the Hurricanes were weighing whether to trade Nikishin or sign him to a new contract. He's ineligible to sign an offer sheet, so they don't have to worry about another team attempting to sign him away.
On June 30, SI.com's Kenneth Teape cited Sportsnet's Elliotte Friedman, who said the New York Rangers were interested in Nikishin. Since that report, however, their interest may have dimmed following their acquisitions of blueliners Marcus Pettersson and Sean Durzi.
Friedman subsequently reported on July 5 that the St. Louis Blues took a long look at Nikishin. It remains to be seen whether they intend to follow through.
BS Meter: Not BS
Nikishin could seek a significant raise on a long-term deal. The Hurricanes have $9.9 million in cap space, but they'll want to ensure they have sufficient cap flexibility for this season. That could explain why they're open to moving him for the right price.
Philadelphia Flyers Not Pursuing Adam Fantilli?
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The Philadelphia Flyers surprised the hockey world on July 3 when they signed Anaheim Ducks center Leo Carlsson to a five-year, $90 million offer sheet, with a league-record average annual value of $18 million. However, the Ducks matched the offer on July 9.
Before the Ducks matched, there was speculation about what the Flyers' "Plan B" would be if their bid for Carlsson proved unsuccessful. On July 4, Sam Carchidi of The Hockey News suggested Adam Fantilli of the Columbus Blue Jackets as their next option.
Like Carlsson, the 21-year-old Fantilli is a restricted free agent center who lacks arbitration rights after completing his entry-level contract. The Blue Jackets' power forward plays a different style of game from the slick playmaking Carlsson, but he's established himself as a first-line center.
After the Ducks matched the Carlsson offer, Kevin Kurz of The Athletic cited a Flyers source saying their offer was as much about circumstances as it was about the player. It was designed to put economic pressure on the Ducks to force them to part with Carlsson. He doubted they would go that route with another player.
BS Meter: Not BS
On July 8, Daily Faceoff's Anthony Di Marco also cited Flyers sources dismissing the notion of signing Fantilli to an offer sheet. They claimed that they didn't view him as worth the same money and risk as Carlsson, adding that the Blue Jackets would probably match a lower offer.
Will the Anaheim Ducks Shed Salary to Re-Sign Cutter Gauthier?
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The Anaheim Ducks retained Leo Carlsson on July 9, matching the Philadelphia Flyers' five-year, $90 million offer sheet. However, his NHL-record $18 million average annual value has blown a big hole in the Ducks' salary-cap payroll, leaving them with roughly $9.1 million in cap space.
That might have been enough to get Cutter Gauthier signed to a new contract before Carlsson signed that offer sheet on July 3. With his new contract setting the benchmark for elite NHL forwards, Gauthier's asking price could soar well over $10 million annually.
On July 6, Eric Stephens of The Athletic speculated that the Ducks could be forced to shed salary to re-sign Gauthier and be cap-compliant when the regular season opens in October. Stephens repeated that refrain three days later when the Ducks matched Carlsson's offer sheet.
The following day, Sportsnet's Rory Boylen wondered how the Ducks would free up the cap space for Gauthier's new contract. He suggested a veteran winger, such as Frank Vatrano ($4.6 million AAV) or Alex Killorn ($6.3 million), could become a cost-cutting trade candidate.
BS Meter: Not BS
Even if the Ducks can get Gauthier signed for under $10 million, they'd still need salary-cap flexibility for the coming season. Winger Troy Terry will likely start the season on long-term injury reserve, but they'll still have to be cap-compliant when he returns in December.
Are the Pittsburgh Penguins Interested in Jason Robertson?
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On July 5, Jason Robertson filed for salary arbitration. The 26-year-old Dallas Stars winger completed a four-year contract with an average annual value of $7.8 million. If he goes through arbitration, he will get a one-year contract that will make him eligible for unrestricted free agent status next July.
Jake Tye of The Hockey News cited ESPN's Greg Wyshynski, who reported on June 25 that the Stars offered Robertson an eight-year, $96 million contract ($12 million AAV). They nearly had a trade in place with the Seattle Kraken, but he rejected their offer of eight years at $15 million AAV.
The Pittsburgh Penguins could be watching Robertson's contract talks closely. On July 1, Josh Yohe of The Athletic reported that they wanted to acquire the high-scoring winger. They believed they had the tradeable assets to acquire him from the Stars and the cap space to sign him.
Yohe followed up a week later, claiming the Penguins remained "very much open" to trading for Robertson, but acknowledged that sources said the winger wants to re-sign with the Stars. Yohe felt the Penguins wanted to have trade discussions with the Stars, but the latter never let those talks get serious.
BS Meter: Not BS
It's believed Penguins GM Kyle Dubas has coveted Robertson for some time, seeing him as a building block for his rebuilding club. If the winger gets a one-year deal through arbitration, he might become amenable to a trade. Whether the Penguins would be an acceptable destination is another matter.
Have the Detroit Red Wings Set Too High a Price for Dylan Larkin?
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On June 5, Sportsnet's Elliotte Friedman reported that Detroit Red Wings captain Dylan Larkin had requested a trade. Two days later, Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press reported the 29-year-old center listed the Minnesota Wild, Vegas Golden Knights and Florida Panthers as his preferred destinations.
MLive.com's Ansar Khan reported on July 9 that Larkin had expanded his list to include the Dallas Stars. However, it doesn't appear the Red Wings are close to moving the two-way center.
The Panthers already made their big move by acquiring winger Brady Tkachuk last month, while the Golden Knights lack the cap space and tradeable assets to acquire Larkin. That leaves the Wild and Stars as possible destinations, but the Wings' asking prices thus far have been too high.
On July 5, Sportsnet's Nick Kypreos claimed the Red Wings would trade Larkin to the Wild if they could get first-line winger Matt Boldy in return. As for the Stars, Khan reported the Stars offered up winger Jason Robertson, but the Wings wanted center Wyatt Johnston.
BS Meter: Not BS
Larkin is under contract through 2030-31, so Red Wings general manager Steve Yzerman is in no hurry to move him. While there could be pressure to trade Larkin before training camp, Yzerman still has two months to sort that out. In the meantime, he's made it clear that he wants a comparable player in return for Larkin.
Salary cap and contract info via PuckPedia.
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