Fantasy Football Week 1: Weekly Fantasy Trends Report

Per Oxford Dictionaries, a trend is "a general direction in which something is developing or changing." In fantasy football, we are constantly seeking to keep with and even get ahead of trends around the NFL.

In this content series, we'll focus on the fantasy-relevant trends emerging around the league. Topics such as target data, snap exposure and efficiency information will prove important throughout the season. Since we don't have any in-season stats to evaluate yet, we'll focus on depth chart shifts and injury updates while trying to leverage the sample of preseason data into actionable information for Week 1.

One quirky and fun trend we noticed for this inaugural week of the league's 97th season—with Peyton Manning retired and Tom Brady suspended, this marks the first kickoff weekend without one of them starting behind center since August 1997.

Another interesting note is the fact the Carolina Panthers facing the Denver Broncos on Thursday night marks the first Super Bowl rematch from the previous season since the Kansas City Chiefs faced the Minnesota Vikings all the way back in 1970 on the heels of Super Bowl IV. The Vikings lost the Super Bowl but won the opening rematch the following season. Will the Panthers—who claim a distinct advantage on offense over the Broncos this season—follow suit?

As for useful updates to consider for this coming week of action, can we trust the Green Bay Packers' Jordy Nelson as a starting fantasy option given he didn’t play in the preseason as he recovered from an ACL injury suffered last August? How about sifting through the unsettled backfields in Baltimore and Seattle?

We'll address these issues and more in this feature focusing on the first week of fantasy football. Please feel free to share your takes on the biggest news, notes and trends emerging in fantasy football in the comments section.

Rising Runner: Add Spencer Ware Everywhere

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Market behavior can prove revealing in fantasy football. For example, the Kansas City Chiefs' Spencer Ware is the most-added player this week in ESPN leagues, a fact that should compel owners to consider following suit if for some reason the bruising back is available in their leagues.

Ware has been drafted late this summer, going 119th on average overall and 38th among tailbacks, but this number is surely rising, as he's leapt 24 spots in ADP (average draft position) over the past seven days.

The surge in interest is driven by the fact superstar tailback Jamaal Charles could miss Week 1. ESPN's Adam Teicher reported coach Andy Reid recently shared, "I think it's a stretch for him to play."

In most competitive leagues, Ware was drafted and thus is already rostered, but managers in shallower formats should take action and acquire him in free agency. We're here to advise you consider starting Ware even if you only drafted or added him for depth, as he's in a unique matchup and usage window that could spell a top-five performance at the position, as we noted in our bold predictions piece recently.

For one, this Week 1 matchup with the San Diego Chargers is inviting—they allowed the third-most rushing scores (14) and second-most yards before contact per rush (3.03) to opposing backs last season. For some idea of his ability to thrive when afforded increased work, Ware has averaged 17.3 fantasy points on DraftKings in the past four games he's tallied at least 11 carries.

It's not always wise to follow the herd in fantasy football, but interest in Ware appears well-founded.

The Awakening: Christine Michael Listed Atop Seattle's Tailback Depth Chart

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Christine Michael has long been a favorite of fantasy fans, earning praise for his rare athleticism and tantalizing upside despite having a limited statistical profile in the pros. The Seattle Seahawks tailback might finally be on the verge of living up to the hype. As Liz Mathews of 710 ESPN shared in the tweet below, there is a growing sentiment in Seattle that Michael claims breakout ingredients:

"

Both Richard Sherman and Doug Baldwin mentioned Christine Michael and his improvement, "Awakening" today in their pressers. #Seahawks

— Liz Mathews 710 ESPN (@Liz_Mathews) September 7, 2016"

ESPN.com's Sheil Kapadia reported Michael is ahead of incumbent lead back Thomas Rawls on the updated depth chart, as Rawls continues to work his way back into form from ankle surgery: "The Seahawks still envision Rawls as the starter when he's 100 percent healthy and comfortable. [Head coach Pete] Carroll's comments indicate that might not happen in Week 1, though."

This could be a situation where the team needs to see what Rawls looks like early in the game before determining what kind of workload he can handle. Michael is owned in just over half of ESPN leagues and is among the most-added assets of the week. 

We advise getting shares of Michael where possible, as it could prove difficult for Carroll to remove him from the starting role or dramatically cut down on his touches if he runs as effectively as he did this preseason, when he lead all NFL rushers through the first three exhibition games.

This isn't a prediction that Michael will run away with the gig; rather, it's an observation that we've seen similar windows deliver production profits before, as opportunity plus talent is one of the most potent combinations in both real and fantasy sports. If you are looking for immediate help at tailback, Michael could run wild on the Miami Dolphins this week. 

C.J. Spiller Could Produce Big Numbers in PPR Leagues

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Getting burned in fantasy football is no fun. Like getting singed in real life, we tend to avoid the flame next time around. Recency bias can prove imprudent, however, as we often see NFL players regain lost form after down seasons.

The New Orleans Saints' C.J. Spiller is a burn-factor player, as he was drafted as a mid-round asset last season with expectations he'd produce elite receiving results in the Darren Sproles role. "He's gold in point-per-reception leagues," they claimed. The Saints, after all, have targeted backs 507 times over the past three seasons, the most in football over this span.

Spiller's 2015 season was marred by sluggish snap rates and nonexistent production most weeks. Although, a look deeper into the numbers reveals some promising trends, such as the fact Spiller averaged .521 fantasy points per route run in PPR formats, per a study conducted by the author. This rate ranked sixth among NFL backs last season.

In terms of opportunity, Spiller was targeted on 30.2 percent of his routes last season, the fourth-highest rate in the league among backs. The real holdup could have been health, as Josh Katzenstein of the Times-Picayune reported Spiller looks sharper and quicker this offseason.

"Individually, I feel like my cutting, my explosiveness, my straight-line speed is good," Spiller said. "I'm very confident. I showed a couple flashes here in the preseason that are back to what I need to be, and so I just have to stay on that road and continue to get better."

Adam Levitan of DraftKings noted in his preseason column that Spiller out-snapped starter Mark Ingram 12-10 with the first-team offense in Week 3 of the preseason, suggesting increased exposure is potentially en route in 2016.

Now, we don't expect Spiller to say, "I feel really slow and lack confidence," but the buzz this offseason has generally been positive on Spiller from the beat, if not too loud to motivate his draft stock. Spiller has been an afterthought in fantasy drafts, going 60th among backs and undrafted in most 10- and 12-team leagues.

The market is modestly warming up to Spiller, as he's the 12th-most-added asset in ESPN leagues over the past week, although this still sees him owned in just fewer than 15 percent of leagues. If you have dead space at the end of your bench, consider adding Spiller, and don't let the bias of his bad 2015 preclude the potential for profit.

Cooking Up Value: The Green Bay Packers Might Finally Have a Star Tight End

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The search for a top tight end for the Packers' Aaron Rodgers has long been a narrative in fantasy football. With his accuracy and ability to find the right read, the idea of Rodgers working with an athletic "go" tight end appears so promising on paper.

Enter Jared Cook, who rates in the 98th percentile in the 40-yard dash among positional prospects since 1999 and in the 99th in vertical jump, per MockDraftable. Stuck on the Rams' languid offensive offerings over the years, Cook's promise has never been truly realized.

ESPN.com's Rob Demovsky reported Rodgers is keen on having this big and rangy target to work with. "He’s a big body who has some athleticism and did a good job with his stiff-arm on his catch on the sideline, that was impressive to watch," Rodgers said. "But it’s going to be fun for us to grow that chemistry over the season. We need him to stay healthy. But he made some really nice plays."

The market is just waking up to Cook's upside, as he's the 16th-most-added asset on ESPN at the moment, but he is still available in over half of leagues.

Levitan offered a deft breakdown of preseason trends that includes some telling information about Cook's rising role on the Packers offense: "During Rodgers’ 25 snaps [in preseason Game 3], Cook was on the field for 19 of them—including 10 of 13 pass plays. Richard Rodgers was in for 12 of them, with five of 13 pass plays."

If you went #ZeroTE and waited late into the twilight rounds or are simply waiting on the Cincinnati Bengals' Tyler Eifert to return, shares of Cook could prove intriguing. This week's opponent, the Jacksonville Jaguars, allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to tight ends last season in ESPN leagues.

Touted Breakout Candidates Tyler Lockett and DeVante Parker Claim Snap Concerns

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The summer months of the NFL offseason give us a ton of time to pontificate and project, as the previous season's sample drives narratives. For example, Seahawks wideout Tyler Lockett earned a great deal of praise, specifically from talented fantasy analyst and receiver guru Matt Harmon of NFL.com.

Harmon produces a renowned content series called Reception Perception, which evaluates how receivers produce throughout the complex NFL route tree, offering a rich assessment that can often identify new nuggets of actionable information. Harmon gave Lockett the stamp of approval this offseason, and thus the market really began to warm to shares of the Seattle speedster.

We agree that Lockett delivers a rare blend of refined receiving skills with track-star speed, but we also believe fantasy investors might want to practice patience with him early in the season.

The reason is a potential lack of early snap exposure, as Lockett wasn't a fixture with the first-team offense in the preseason, per Levitan:

"

Seattle’s first-team offense logged 35 snaps against the Cowboys on Thursday night and the top-3 WR count was: Doug Baldwin 31, Jermaine Kearse 29 and Tyler Lockett 15. It’s been that way all preseason. Through Russell Wilson’s 75 overall preseason snaps, Lockett has been on the field for just 39 of them (52.0 percent) vs. Baldwin’s 68 and Kearse’s 63.

"

This is a continuation of a trend from last year, as Lockett served a tertiary role for a team that ranked 16th in offensive plays with at least three receivers on the field. The breakout could certainly still come, as talent often wins out, and Kearse isn't an imposing peer on the depth chart. For the first few weeks, however, we'd prefer to let him earn his way into starting fantasy lineups.

Another hyped second-year wideout prospect is the Dolphins' DeVante Parker, who finished the season strong in 2015 but is also dealing with snap-count limitations. From that same piece from Levitan, we learn Parker played behind Kenny Stills on first-team reps in the preseason.

Both Lockett and Parker could prove profitable as fantasy investments over the full sample of the 2016 season, but we'd prefer cheaper commodities like the Baltimore Ravens' Mike Wallace or even the Tennessee Titans' Tajae Sharpe in the immediate future, allowing these sophomore breakout candidates to earn more exposure as the season evolves.

Practicing Patience: Jimmy Graham Set to Be Active Week 1

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From 2011 to 2014, only the Dallas Cowboys' Dez Bryant caught more touchdowns in the NFL than tight end Jimmy Graham, who was with the New Orleans Saints over this stretch. 

Now with the Seahawks after a down statistical season in 2015 that ended early due to a serious knee injury, Graham is viewed as an afterthought in most fantasy leagues. Graham has been drafted as the 13th tight end on average in ESPN leagues this summer, as doubts over his production and recovery have deflated his stock.

Some recent positive news has emerged, however. Bob Condotta of the Seattle Times reported Carroll believes Graham could suit up this week against the Dolphins, a team that ranked 25th in pass coverage last season, per Pro Football Focus.

Every draft season, we find injured players slip in drafts, even when talent and production precedents suggest value is present. This could be the case with Graham, who could provide real production profits even in Seattle's low-octane offense given his immense red-zone resume. 

We simply advise some patience this week in 10- and 12-team formats if you have other options at the position, such as the Packers' Cook, as Graham will almost surely be on a snap count. That said, cheap early shares of Graham could prove season-shifting, especially with this positive trend of him practicing in full on Wednesday, per Kapadia.

Snap-Count Concerns: What to Do with Jordy Nelson

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As Michael Cohen of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel found, it's been right around 86 weeks—which is also 602 days or 866,880 minutes—since Nelson has played in a real NFL game.

Nelson suffered an ACL injury in the preseason last August, felling the team's offensive upside for much of the season. Nelson recently told Cohen and reporters:

"

We're not going to put a number on [a snap count]. We've discussed it. I think the situation of being in Jacksonville, we'll play it by snap-by-snap to be honest with you. There's a lot of things that could happen differently. But seeing how the possessions are taken, seeing what the weather is like, I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of guys are rotating to stay fresh. …

If I end up for some reason getting three deep balls in a row, yeah I'm coming out. I'll come out at the end of the year on that, too. Things happen throughout a game that, you know, I could run a bunch of short routes all the way down the field and never have a problem. It's just going to be how the game flows.

"

While there could be some limitations on Nelson, we're confident in deploying him in starting lineups given his and the Packers' vocal confidence and their real need for his field-stretching skill set. As Fantasy Labs found, even slot weapon Randall Cobb thrives with Nelson back in the fold, as he averages more than five fantasy points more with Nelson on the field over his career.

ESPN's Adam Schefter reported Nelson should be available "full bore," per head coach Mike McCarthy. It's natural to prove hesitant when deploying a player off such a long layoff, but this is the rare case where positive trends point to immediate trust for a veteran coming off an ACL injury.

Go West: What to Make of Baltimore Backfield in Fantasy Football

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The Justin Forsett saga with the Ravens has been compelling theater on the doorstep of the NFL season. Forsett was released last weekend, re-signed this week and remains atop the team's backfield depth chart.

To hear Forsett tell it, per Jamison Hensley of ESPN.com, he's ready to resume feature duties despite last week's unique scenario. "I'll be lining up there as the starter as of now," Forsett said. "It's my job to go out there and try to dominate and make it clear for them."

A history of statistical success is present, as Forsett averaged 5.5 yards per rush from 2012 to 2014, best among running backs during that span. That said, we'd rather start tailback Terrance West this weekend against the Buffalo Bills. The fact Forsett was released already reveals issues with his security as the team's top back, while offseason buzz for West's physical play could lead to real value. 

Why are we trusting West over Forsett? For one, he's likely to consume the majority of early-down and goal-line duties given preseason usage and physical profiles, as he's the long, bruising back on the depth chart. The Bills allowed 2.63 yards before contact per rush last season, sixth-most in the league.

Forsett could share snaps not only with West, but also with Javorius Allen on third downs, thus limiting the upside. With a share of the more meaningful touches, don't be surprised if West exits Week 1 with the most fantasy value of this backfield mix.

Data for this piece such as yardage before contact and historical team and player trends sourced from an ESPN database.