UFC on Fox 21 Predictions: Main Card Staff Picks
The UFC is taking the Octagon north of the border Saturday for UFC on Fox 21.
The event will be headlined by a welterweight contest between top contenders Carlos Condit and Demian Maia. Condit is coming off an aborted title run, while Maia enters riding a five-fight winning streak. Either could insert his name into contention talk by emerging with a W.
Former lightweight champion Anthony Pettis will face Charles Oliveira in the night's co-main event. Since being dethroned, Pettis has dropped two additional contests.
A couple of years ago, such a scenario would have seemed unfathomable, but Pettis' back is now against the wall. His situation is especially dire because his opponent has been hot, winning five of six bouts. A victory over Pettis would mark the grandest accomplishment of the Brazilian's career.
Paige VanZant vs. Bec Rawlings and Joe Lauzon vs. Jim Miller round out the main card.
So who's going to emerge victorious? Can Maia force Condit into a grappling match, or will Condit score the knockout? Will Pettis rebound, or will Oliveira keep building momentum? Will VanZant bounce back from her first UFC loss, or will Rawlings advance her winning streak to three? How will Lauzon-Miller, a battle of journeymen, play out?
Scott Harris, Sydnie Jones, Nathan McCarter, Steven Rondina and Craig Amos are here to provide their predictions. Read on.
Joe Lauzon vs. Jim Miller
1 of 4
Nathan McCarter
Both men looked outstanding at UFC 200, but both men have also been inconsistent as of late. It's a crapshoot picking this bout. I'll take Joe Lauzon on a whim. While I would love to be confident, I can't be with how both have performed in the past two or three years. I'm just rolling the dice.
Lauzon, unanimous decision
Steven Rondina
Both guys still bring it, but Jim Miller is a southpaw, and Lauzon struggles to deal with those. Should be a fun one.
Miller, unanimous decision
Sydnie Jones
The first time they fought at the end of 2012, Miller won by unanimous decision. Since then, he's gone 4-4-1, while Lauzon is 4-3. Neither record is stellar, but both have lost to some high-level fighters. Lauzon, however, seems to be faring better than Miller and is perhaps holding up better as well. Both are Brazilian jiu-jitsu beasts, but Lauzon hasn't submitted someone since Jamie Varner four years ago, and Miller should be good enough to defend.
Miller, unanimous decision
Scott Harris
Lauzon needed 40 stitches to heal his face after their 2012 fight. This most likely won't be like that, but it still should be cracking good. Lauzon's endurance and length help him avenge the loss.
Lauzon, TKO, Round 2
Craig Amos
Miller wins if he takes Lauzon down and controls him. Lauzon wins if he can work a submission or keep it standing. With more options to enter the win column, I'm siding with Lauzon.
Lauzon, TKO, Round 2
Paige VanZant vs. Bec Rawlings
2 of 4
Nathan McCarter
An excellent rebound fight for Paige VanZant. Bec Rawlings looked decent in her last bout, but PVZ should still be the solid favorite. I don't see Rawlings offering up much resistance to the pressure and takedowns PVZ will bring. A 15-minute mugging ensues.
VanZant, unanimous decision
Steven Rondina
Rawlings has the tools and physicality to turn this into a scrap, but what we've seen from PVZ to this point suggests she'll be able to handle a fight like this. Look for her to keep the action on the cage or on the ground long enough to win over the judges.
VanZant, unanimous decision
Sydnie Jones
VanZant took a serious thrashing in her last fight, when Rose Namajunas battered her for more than 22 minutes before sinking in a rear-naked choke about halfway through the fifth round. But besides that, her natural athleticism and wrestling background have proved effective in the Octagon. Rawlings has never been a strong, consistent fighter, and VanZant seems more promising at this point in her career than Rawlings does, despite Rawlings' two-fight win streak.
VanZant, TKO, Round 2
Scott Harris
I'll go with VanZant for one simple reason: No way the UFC would book a big star on Fox against someone it wasn't pretty darn sure she could beat. VanZant is no super talent in the cage, but she'll bull-rush Rawlings for a rugged win.
VanZant, unanimous decision
Craig Amos
Rawlings deserves credit for beating Seo Hee Ham, but VanZant isn't going to play to the Aussie's strengths by allowing her to establish distance and score points. Instead, she'll get inside and make things chaotic.
VanZant, submission, Round 3
Anthony Pettis vs. Charles Oliveira
3 of 4
Nathan McCarter
Sean Shelby did well with the matchmaking. Want to see what Anthony Pettis brings to the 145-pound class? Charles Oliveira will test him. Likewise, we don't know which Oliveira will show up. Pettis lands his high-octane kicks to brutalize Oliveira before earning a TKO victory with a swarm of punches.
Pettis, TKO, Round 2
Steven Rondina
I'm officially done regarding Pettis as an elite-level fighter, and you have to be an elite-level fighter to deal with a talent like Oliveira. Oliveira will force this to the ground and eat up enough minutes to take the scorecards.
Oliveira, unanimous decision
Sydnie Jones
I'm with Steven. I'm not sure how Pettis went from finishing Joe Lauzon, Donald Cerrone, Benson Henderson and Gilbert Melendez to losing decisions to Rafael dos Anjos, Eddie Alvarez and Edson Barboza, but here we are. And now he's facing Oliveira, who, aside from a freak-injury loss to Max Holloway, has been tearing it up lately. Maybe Pettis will catch him early and get a knockout, but I think it's more likely Oliveira will tie him up and win, some way, from there. Maybe he'll even be the first fighter to finish Pettis.
Oliveira, submission, Round 3
Scott Harris
Expect a return to form for Pettis. He'll control the center of the cage and fire big combos on a tough but outgunned Oliveira. Pettis may never recapture championship-level glory, but he'll announce his presence in a crowded featherweight division.
Pettis, unanimous decision
Craig Amos
I'm baffled by Pettis' loss to Barboza—no knock on Barboza, but that fight was right in Pettis' wheelhouse—and think he'll find a way to get back in the win column. I don't believe it'll take him that long, either.
Pettis, knockout, Round 1
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Demian Maia vs. Carlos Condit
4 of 4
Nathan McCarter
The stylistic matchup favors Carlos Condit with his range and diversity, but I am all-in on Demian Maia right now. He'll find ways to get inside and take Condit down, and over the course of the fight it'll sap Condit of his strength. Think of this as a more difficult bout for Maia than the one he just had with Matt Brown, but essentially the same type of fight will play out. Maia gets the tap in the fourth.
Maia, submission, Round 4
Steven Rondina
I disagree that this matchup favors Condit. Condit has historically been easy to take down but has made up for it with an active guard...but there ain't no guard that's good enough to deal with Maia. Condit's cardio will give him a huge edge in the championship rounds, but it's a tall task to last that long against Maia.
Maia, submission, Round 3
Sydnie Jones
I agree with Steven and Nathan. Condit is an elite fighter and can hang with the best. However, Maia has been more consistent recently—even if you consider Condit's decision loss to Robbie Lawler a misjudgment—and ever since Nate Marquardt knocked him out back in 2009, he has avoided eating big shots via recklessness. He'll employ that again and finish Condit on the ground with his expert Brazilian jiu-jitsu.
Maia, submission, Round 4
Scott Harris
"This is a really hard one to call" is an overused phrase in this line of work, but this is a really hard one to call. Can Maia get takedowns on Condit? Can his cardio hold up over a five-round fight? Can Condit's defensive wrestling keep him upright? Can he stick-and-move his way to the deep waters, where Maia will be presumably exhausted? This could go either way, but here's guessing Condit will outlast the 38-year-old Brazilian.
Condit, unanimous decision
Craig Amos
Yeah, Maia is a wizard on the mat, no doubt about it. But are we (minus Scott) forgetting how good Condit is? He's really good. So good, in fact, that if not for shoddy judging, he'd be the welterweight champion. He'll do what he needs to do to survive on the ground, and he'll make Maia pay whenever the two of them are standing.
Condit, TKO, Round 3
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
