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Surprise Freshmen Who Will Emerge as Legitimate 2017 NBA Draft Prospects

Jonathan WassermanAug 19, 2016

It's seemingly easy to peg most of the freshmen who'll be declaring for the NBA draft after one college season. But there are always a few who come out of nowhere. 

Last year, it was Marquese Chriss, Malik Beasley, Malachi Richardson and Dejounte Murray. They weren't on mock draft boards before arriving at college and eventually cracking the 2016 first round. 

Obvious one-and-done candidates for the 2017 draft include: Duke's Harry Giles, Jayson Tatum and Marques Bolden, Washington's Markelle Fultz, North Carolina State's Dennis Smith Jr., Kentucky's De'Aaron Fox, Malik Monk and Edrice Adebayo, Kansas' Josh Jackson, UCLA's Lonzo Ball, Florida State's Jonathan Isaac and Texas' Jarrett Allen.

The following five freshmen are going to sneak up on the aforementioned, fans and scouts. For various reasons, these prospects aren't considered no-brainer pros (strength, skills, decision-making), but by June, production and surprise potential should help change that perception. 

Honorable Mention: V.J. King (Louisville, SF)

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Best-case draft projection: First round

While it's difficult to predict this early whether he'll declare in 2017, V.J. King should at least establish himself as a first-round talent during his freshman year at Louisville.

Coach Rick Pitino hasn't had many newcomers go one-and-done over the years. Still, King has enough talent to impress in a supporting role, and with a new eligibility rule that entices underclassmen to test the waters—along with the fact NBA teams consistently show a willingness to reach on long-term potential—he could find himself in the draft discussion after starting the year outside it. 

He's not really a reach either—King, a 2016 McDonald's All-American who also finished with 15 points at the Jordan Brand Classic, possesses solid 6'7" size and athleticism for a wing. He's smooth off the dribble with a developing one-on-one game that features pull-ups, step-backs and runners. Though he isn't likely to register a high percentage from three next season, his fluidity and shot-making mean it's reasonable to think shooting can become one of his strengths.

To draw NBA interest in 2016-17, he'll have to fight concerns over his strength, shot selection and consistency. But as long as he isn't overly inefficient, King's physical tools, bounce and scoring versatility should light up NBA radars.

Lauri Markkanen (Arizona, PF/C)

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Best-case draft projection: Late lottery

Lauri Markkanen's performance at the U20 European Championships moved the draft-projection needle. 

The tournament's leading scorer with 24.7 points per game, he looked both fundamentally advanced and ready for big minutes at Arizona. At 19 years old, he's already played in four FIBA events.

From an NBA perspective, he passes the eye test too with 7'0", 225-pound size, quickness and athleticism. But it's his skill level that separates Markkanen and fuels instant-impact expectations, as well as one-and-done lottery potential. 

With the body of a pro 4 or 5, he's also a proven shooter, having made a combined 56-of-138 threes (40.6 percent) through 33 FIBA games dating back to 2013. Between the appeal to stretch bigs and some developing scoring versatility, it shouldn't take long for Markkanen's offensive game to register on scouts' radars across the league. 

He's a threat to face up, attack and finish on the move or improvise playing back to the basket. And though not known for his rim protection, he moves fluidly on defense and isn't afraid to bang inside. 

Markkanen won't block many shots or dominate under the boards, which caps his upside, but his game looks like an obvious fit in today's NBA. I've got him emerging as a top Pac-12 performer and one of the perceived safer options in the 2017 field. 

Omer Yurtseven (North Carolina State, C)

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Best-case draft projection: Mid-first round

Whether the NCAA clears him or not, Omer Yurtseven should emerge as an intriguing first-round project by June

He isn't eligible yet, with questions swirling over comments made by his former coach, who claimed his club paid Yurtseven for three years, which would ruin his amateur status. But even if he never suits up, I'd still bank on him declaring and using early flashes of potential as bait. 

He'll be a surefire draw if he does play for North Carolina State. Yurtseven stands 6'11 ½", 228 pounds, blending size and mobility with terrific hands around the basket. The fact that Dennis Smith Jr., a projected top-five pick, will be running the show should only benefit Yurtseven, a limited scorer who'll now have a big-time playmaker setting the table. 

He isn't the bounciest athlete, but he has a strong feel at the rim and can convert in traffic from difficult angles. An obvious finishing target for guards off penetration, he should also factor into the pick-and-roll game and pound the offensive glass for second-chance points.  

Through four FIBA tournaments dating back to 2013, he's always been a strong rebounder and active shot-blocker, averaging 12.2 boards and 3.1 blocks per 40 minutes (34 games). He just averaged 10.4 points, 5.6 rebounds and 1.4 blocks on 59.2 percent shooting in 18 minutes (23.1 points, 12 rebounds, 3.1 blocks per 40 minutes) at the European Championships.

Yurtseven's physical tools and interior instincts should be enough to present problems in the ACC. It's his age (just turned 18 in June), pro body, fluidity and enormous room for growth that should draw NBA interest as a freshman.

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Rawle Alkins (Arizona, SG)

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Best-case draft projection: Mid-first round

High-end athleticism, strength and scoring prowess suggest Rawle Alkins is college-ready. The question is whether he showcases enough pro potential to draw NBA interest after just one year at Arizona. 

I suspect he'll win scouts over with toughness, skilled offense and disruptive defense.

A power guard, Alkins plays through contact below the rim and can sky above it off drives and transition. And with three-point range, a stop-and-pop game and dangerous slashing ability, he's a threat to score from all three levels. 

Competitive, strong and quick, Alkins should have the chance to establish himself as two-way player. I wouldn't be shocked if he wound up guarding four different positions throughout the season, especially when you consider Arizona's backcourt logjam that could force him into playing small forward or small-ball 4.

Coach Sean Miller will ultimately have a handful of quality guards, but Alkins' physical presence and firepower will be tough to bench for long stretches. Look for him to convert the freshman minutes into solid production and NBA draft buzz.

Wenyen Gabriel (Kentucky, PF)

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Best-case draft projection: Late lottery

With most of Kentucky's preseason hype focused on De'Aaron Fox, Malik Monk and Edrice "Bam" Adebayo, watch Wenyen Gabriel sneak up on everybody. 

He doesn't scream one-and-done, given his skinny 197-pound frame and raw offensive game. But by June, NBA teams should still be willing to chase Gabriel's upside. He'll earn both fans and minutes with his motor. 

“My high motor is what they speak about, my length, my athleticism,” Gabriel told CoachCal.com's Metz Camfield. “Just being able to keep going all the time.”

That energy, length (7'1" wingspan) and bounce should translate to activity at both ends of the floor. Though not particularly physical down low, Gabriel has a strong nose for the ball and the willingness to throw his body around. Count on plenty of putbacks and weak-side rejections from the freshman, who's at his best reacting off the ball. He's the type of big capable of making plays without needing any run for him. 

Don't sleep on his developing skills, though. Gabrilel can knock down the uncontested jumper and attack the open lane or close out. 

He's still a major project, but as we see every year, NBA teams are still willing to reach for them. If Gabriel can avoid being red-flagged for a severe lack of strength, he'll have the chance to sell scouts on his energizer potential. Flashes of scoring and defensive versatility will only help drive his ceiling higher.

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