Volatile Stocks: 2017 NBA Draft Prospects Entering Make-or-Break Seasons
This is a key year for a handful of talented juniors and seniors who've struggled to win over NBA scouts. A few of the following players declared for the 2016 draft before opting to return—presumably because they weren't able to earn any first-round love.
These prospects are running out of time. Their perceived ceilings have gotten lower with every season. After failing to break out, the potential they oozed as freshmen and sophomores has started to fade.
We'll label them as low, medium or high-risk, but that's only in comparison to each other. For all seven, a bounce-back year could help reignite NBA interest. On the other hand, failing to make the necessary improvements could knock them off boards and destroy their stocks.
Melo Trimble (Maryland, PG, Junior)
1 of 7
Urgency meter: Medium
Melo Trimble was supposed to blow up in 2015-16 following a productive freshman year. The bar must have been raised too high.
He took a step backward, at least within the NBA draft discussion. Though Trimble put a heavier emphasis on facilitating for teammates, at the same time, flaws were exposed, while one of his perceived strengths is now in question.
A promising shooter in 2014-15, Trimble's three-point percentage plummeted to 31.4 percent from 41.2 percent. His two-point jumper percentage fell to 29.7 percent from 38 percent, per Hoop-Math.com.
Given his lack of length (6'2" wingspan) and athleticism—which is bound to limit him at the rim, off the bounce and in traffic—it's imperative Trimble compensates with perimeter scoring. However, his final two months weren't pretty, as he shot 36 percent over his last 20 games and put up duds against notable competition on multiple occasions.
Trimble capped off a disappointing season with an underwhelming performance in Chicago at the combine, where he struggled during five-on-fives. Considering he doesn't offer enticing upside, based on his physical and athletic limitations, scouts aren't going to exercise a ton of patience.
To avoid being written off, Trimble must reestablish his spark-plug potential that could have him adding playmaking and shot-making off a bench.
Kennedy Meeks (North Carolina, PF/C, Senior)
2 of 7
Urgency meter: High
Injuries and talented North Carolina bigs have prevented Kennedy Meeks from fully breaking out. The 2013 McDonald's All-American now enters a make-or-break season with regard to his chances of drawing NBA interest.
Last season's work wasn't enough. A bruised knee and an explosive Brice Johnson limited Meeks to 20.6 minutes per game in 2015-16. Meeks failed to receive an invite to the combine and wound up returning for his senior year.
“The feedback on what I have to work on so that I can have a great senior year, help my team have a great season and be ready to take that next step is invaluable,” Meeks said in May, via DailyTarheel.com.
To his credit, Meeks has been consistently efficient and effective, having shot at least 54 percent while averaging more than 11 rebounds per 40 minutes during each of his three seasons. He's a natural rebounder and bully on the block with soft hands, an over-the-shoulder game and touch.
Meeks just hasn't averaged more than 23.3 minutes per game during any of his three seasons.
A below-the-rim athlete not known for rim protection or defensive range, Meeks must prove his conditioning is at least up to par. Scouts will also want to see his motor, nose for the ball and offensive skills translate to consistent high-level production—especially considering he's a senior and Johnson isn't around to steal touches anymore.
There is Glen Davis-like potential for Meeks to strive for, given his 265-pound size, nose for the ball, low-post skills and mid-range jumper. But blending in as a role player for North Carolina won't be enough. He'll need to emerge as an every-game beast for a chance to regain NBA attention.
Malik Pope (San Diego State, SF, Junior)
3 of 7
Urgency meter: Medium
A 6'10", high-flying wing with three-point range, Malik Pope always looked the part—he just hasn't played it with any consistency.
Freshman flashes helped create breakout expectations for 2015-16, but it didn't happen—Pope averaged 7.3 points, his field-goal percentage dipped to 40.1 percent from 45.5 percent and he was borderline invisible through the first three months.
Pope struggles to find quality shots once the game slows down in the half court. However, the flashes began to reappear late in February and early March. His jumper and confidence ultimately returned to breathe some life back into his stock.
Now a junior, Pope has to assert himself and apply all that athleticism and shot-making ability; It wouldn't be a good look to disappoint for a second consecutive season.
The urgency meter isn't ringing off the hook, but if things don't click for Pope after three years, it becomes tougher to get excited about any NBA potential that's left.
Amida Brimah (Connecticut, C, Senior)
4 of 7
Urgency meter: High
Amida Brimah raised eyebrows during Connecticut's 2014 national championship season. He's been relatively quiet since then, having given scouts nothing more than an occasional big game.
He's still a 7-foot rim protector with a reported 7'6" wingspan, some shooting touch and post moves. But at this stage, his third-year averages of 6.5 points and 4.6 rebounds overshadow his potential.
Four field-goal attempts per game and a tiny 13.8 percent usage rate, per Sports-Reference.com, highlight how little coach Kevin Ollie thinks of Brimah offensively. And despite his shot-blocking tools and numbers (career 5.3 swats per 40 minutes), he's not tough or physical around the basket.
Brimah has a year to change the perception he's soft inside, but at the same time, he needs to become a bigger threat offensively as well. There was a time when defensive potential, bounce and flashes of scoring looked poised to rocket him up draft boards; He's now entering a do-or-die final season that could determine whether he hears his name called in June.
Devin Robinson (Florida, SF, Junior)
5 of 7
Urgency meter: Low
Athleticism, quickness and 6'8" size for a small forward make Devin Robinson worth tracking for NBA scouts. But eventually, he has to show there is more than just physical tools and bounce.
Robinson, a former top-25 recruit in ESPN's rankings, averaged only nine points and one three-point make his sophomore year while totaling 17 assists in 36 games. Robinson has flashed minimal shot-creating or passing ability, and though a solid rebounder and versatile defender, there can only be so much value tied to a wing who can't score or consistently hit jumpers.
Chances are, it's too late for Robinson's one-on-one game to suddenly take off. From an NBA draft perspective, improving his 34 percent mark from three is the priority. He's a capable shot-maker who must become a confident shooter to compensate for being limited off the dribble.
Robinson guards both forward positions, thrives in transition and gets buckets off drives, cuts and putbacks. If he can convince scouts with the three-ball, he will become a lot easier to buy as a potential NBA role player.
Otherwise, Robinson doesn't bring enough to the table.
Justin Jackson (North Carolina, SF, Junior)
6 of 7
Urgency meter: Low
It's not so much Justin Jackson's weaknesses as his inability to improve them.
He returned for a second season at North Carolina with obvious priorities: raising his three-point percentage and sharpening his scoring skills after shooting 30.4 percent from deep and averaging just 16.1 points per 40 minutes.
Unfortunately, his sophomore year wound up looking like a near mirror image of his first one. He shot 29.2 percent from three and averaged 12.2 points (17.2 points per 40 minutes).
Realistically, Jackson will never be a one-on-one shot creator or go-to scorer—not based on his current skill set, 193-pound frame and limited bounce (34 ½" max vertical). He isn't a playmaker, strong defender or rebounder, either.
If he's going to climb up NBA draft boards, he'll need his jumper to carry him. Jackson has clean form but hasn't been able to establish any shooting rhythm through two years.
With solid 6'8" size for a wing, he's a transition weapon, above-average passer (3.9 assists per 40 minutes), can attack closeouts and finish with floaters. But he's a consistent three-point shot away from offering a package worth first-round value.
Nigel Hayes (Wisconsin, SF/PF, Senior)
7 of 7
Urgency meter: High
Nigel Hayes was supposed to benefit from the larger workload and extra touches that Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker left behind in 2015-16.
His efficiency tanked instead. He shot a disastrous 36.8 percent and 29.3 percent from three.
Hayes' struggle to create quality shots was exposed in a lineup that featured him as a top option. The bigger concern was a drop-off in shot-making accuracy. His jumper, which initially helped fuel draft buzz a year ago, wouldn't fall his junior season.
He didn't do himself any favors at the NBA combine either, where he faded into the background during five-on-fives. Plus, only one other participant registered a lower max vertical leap than Hayes' 28 ½ inches, which should have something to do with his ugly 51.2 percent finishing clip at the rim, per Hoop-Math.com.
Scouts also questioned Hayes' defense and motor, two issues he must improve to strengthen his image as an NBA role player. He should excel under the boards, given his strength and length (245 lbs, 7'3" wingspan), but his rebounding percentage even fell far enough (9.7 percent from 12.3 percent) to raise more flags.
He now has one last season to turn it around. There is still hope attached to Hayes' physical tools, inside-out versatility and passing, but another year of erratic shooting, inefficient scoring, weak rebounding and questionable defense will destroy what's left of his draft stock.
Stats courtesy of Sports-Reference.com unless otherwise noted. Heights and wingspans courtesy of DraftExpress.
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