Team USA and Australia Aren't the Only Medal Contenders out There
If not for Croatia's Bojan Bogdanovic and Dario Saric, Brazil would be Thursday's feel-good Olympics basketball story—a 2-1 darling working off consecutive upsets with a clear path out of the preliminary round.
Alas, Bogdanovic and Saric brought Brazil's underdog run to a screeching, and potentially permanent, halt during Croatia's 80-76 win in Rio on Thursday. The duo combined for 48 points on 15-of-27 shooting, including a 6-of-11 showing from deep, at times carrying Croatia to the brink of a runaway victory.
Bogdanovic absolutely exploded, tallying an Olympics-high 33 points to go along with six rebounds and three assists. Croatia was content to stick him in weak-side isolations and get out of the way—and he delivered, just like he has for his entire stay in Rio, per Hoop Magazine's Josh Eberley:
Saric finished with a balanced 15 points, seven rebounds, three assists, one steal and one block. Though he was sloppy with the ball (six turnovers), particularly in the second half, he came up big down the stretch.
On one sequence in the fourth quarter, he stuffed a streaking Marcus Vinicius Marquinhos at the rim, caught the ball and threw a Kevin Love-like touchdown pass to Bogdanovic for an easy two. His Olympic play has given enduring Philadelphia 76ers fans a reason to wax (perhaps unattainable) optimism ahead of next season, as Bleacher Report's Alec Nathan dutifully noted:
Except, Bogdanovic's and Saric's offensive takeovers almost weren't enough for Croatia to squeeze out a win. Mario Hezonja (six points, two rebounds) faded as the game wore on, and guards Krunoslav Simon (three assists) and Roko Ukic (four assists) were more concerned with setting up Saric for open threes than keeping everyone else not named Bojan involved.
Even after Croatia went on a 10-0 run midway through the third quarter to extend their lead to 14, Brazil kept coming, piecing together enough stops to remain within striking distance.
Marcelo Huertas was once again masterful, finishing with 10 points and nine assists. His incessant dribble penetration threw Croatia's defense out of whack and helped Augusto Lima (11 points, six rebounds) and Marquinhos (12 points, three assists) secure some easy buckets.
Brazil's mid-game tweaks on pick-and-rolls allowed them to claw their way back. Whenever the roll man was doubled or cut off, Huertas would find a sleeper near the baseline, who would then look for an orbiting shooter behind the arc—a calculated adjustment that gave way to some timely threes in the fourth.
Indeed, their ball movement was good enough to break down Croatia's defense. The shooting just wasn't there until the final frame. It took their leading scorer, Leandro Barbosa, 18 shots to get his 16 points, and Nene (2-of-10 shooting) missed a ton of looks around the rim.
That offensive inconsistency damned Brazil to defeat, torpedoing a golden opportunity. At 1-2, their chances of advancing into the quarterfinals aren't moot, but they don't look especially promising.
Nigeria and Spain, whom Brazil beat on Tuesday, were the only Group B teams to enter Thursday's play without a victory. The latter's rough stretch isn't supposed to continue. Spain hasn't looked good by any means, but their first two losses came by a combined three points. There's still a chance they win out and regain control of their own fate.
Argentina (Saturday) and Nigeria (Monday) remain for Brazil. They, too, are now staring down a scenario that demands they win out—no small, let lone likely, task considered the continued scrappiness of Argentina's aging core.
Croatia, meanwhile, has to be feeling pretty good. The gauntlet part of their schedule is over. Neither Nigeria (Saturday) nor Lithuania (Monday) poses much of a threat. Barring an epic collapse, they won't finish with a bottom-two group record.
But they do need to find scoring outside of Bogdanovic and Saric if they plan on making a dent beyond the prelims. This win was nearly squandered away behind 17 turnovers and a complete absence of offensive variance.
Teams will eventually do a better job of closing out against Saric's spot-up triples, and Croatia doesn't have the surrounding shot-makers to rip nylon on 50 percent of their treys every game. If Bogdanovic's performance during the 2015-16 NBA season is any indication, he will return to planet Earth at some point, per ESPN.com's Mike Mazzeo:
Still, with Spain ostensibly tumbling down the Olympic totem pole, Group B is begging for another medal hopeful to partner with Argentina's forever march and Lithuania's surge. Is that contender Croatia? Bogdanovic and Saric suggest yes.
The supporting cast needs to speak up before we know for sure.
Lithuania-Argentina Feels Like Heavyweight Battle
Both Argentina and Lithuania entered their Group B showdown with unblemished records, and that was on clear display from start to finish. This was an intense clash, filled with relentless physicality (aided by referees seemingly swallowing their whistles at all times), pinpoint defensive rotations and offensive creativity until Lithuania escaped with an 81-73 victory to preserve perfection.
Argentina saw Facundo Campazzo spin his way into the paint and finish with flourishes around the basket as he became one of five players on his squad in double figures. Luis Scola stuffed the stat sheet with 12 points, seven rebounds, four assists and two steals, as he's so often wont to do in international play.
But the night—at least from the Argentine perspective—belonged to Manu Ginobili.
Relentlessly attacking the rim, he worked his way to the stripe 17 times while producing a team-high 22 points. His touch in the paint was often perfect, and the presence of bigger defenders didn't deter him when he rose and lofted the ball off his fingertips.
"I would rather lose with you guys than win with any other group of players," Ginobili said after Argentina was eliminated from the 2012 London Olympics, per ESPN's Zach Lowe. Once more, the aging shooting guard refuses to slow down, playing with unshakable passion and creativity until the final buzzer.
It wasn't enough Thursday night, but Ginobili's vintage showing is one of the reasons Argentina remains a medal contender even as the Golden Generation moves further into the rearview mirror. Of course, it no longer seems quite as strong a contender as still-undefeated Lithuania.
Jonas Valanciunas (six points, 10 rebounds) and Domantas Sabonis (seven points, six rebounds) may be the only NBA players on the squad leading Group B, but there's no talent deficit.
Not with Mantas Kalnietis (17 points, five rebounds, seven assists) continuing to show off his incredible vision. The 29-year-old guard is playing with unbridled confidence when he throws aggressive—and successful—alley-oop feeds through traffic down the stretch of a tight game. He's under constant control, mixing his attacking nature with appropriate caution, and Lithuania runs with his success.
It's clear this is a different team with him leading the charge, as Ryan Wolstat of the Toronto Sun noted:
But we can't discount Mindaugas Kuzminskas, who came off the bench and put on an inside-outside scoring display, knocking down triples and slamming home dunks en route to 23 points, five rebounds and an assist. Nor can we overlook Renaldas Seibutis' passionate play when Kalnietis needed a breather.
Lithuania has upper-tier talent, depth and chemistry. It's a joy to watch when everything is clicking: running circles around defenses with snappy ball-movement and synchronized positioning, as has so often been the case in Rio.
Now 4-0 and sitting atop the table, Lithuania must be considered a strong medal contender. But we shouldn't discount Argentina or Croatia as Group B, even without Team USA or Australia, suddenly looks a lot stronger.
And Spain (somehow) isn't dead yet either.
A Win Doesn't Right the Ship
After opening with losses to Croatia and Brazil by a combined three points, Spain desperately needed to get off the schneid over the similarly winless Nigerian squad that gave Lithuania a stern test Tuesday night.
It got the sought-after win, but the 96-87 final score won't leave Pau Gasol and Co. feeling hunky-dory about medal chances. Not after Nigeria had a legitimate shot to complete the upset.
The feisty upstarts ended the third quarter on a 15-0 run to wrestle the lead away from the favorites, almost clawing their way back in the final period and even closing the gap to a mere point with under three minutes remaining.
Despite the near-heroic efforts of their opponent, Spain was leading by as many as 16 points after a Sergio Rodriguez jumper early in the second quarter and had a chance to stomp out Nigeria's hopes. Instead, the intensity sagged, the turnovers started popping up more frequently and the defensive rotations were wholly uninspired.
This didn't go unnoticed by ESPN's Fran Fraschilla:
Plain and simple, the Spaniards stopped playing like a team with something to prove.
They do have plenty to prove—the country's sterling international history be damned. History doesn't fight its way up the Group B leaderboard, even if it can contribute to a misleading FIBA World Ranking.
The schedule doesn't get any easier. No matter how much spirit it displayed during the first three outings, Nigeria is the worst team in Spain's half of the competition, while Croatia (Saturday) and Brazil (Monday) loom large for a country that needs to win out in order to preserve its medal chances.
Pau Gasol (16 points, seven rebounds, three assists) could stand to play with more efficiency. Ricky Rubio (15 points, four rebounds, four assists) could set up his teammates for success with his creative passing. The shooters must do more from beyond the arc after an 9-of-26 performance Thursday afternoon.
But this is about the roster as a unit.
There's been far too little of the whole during the first week of the Olympic experience, and it's running out of time to reverse the unfortunate trend.
Standings and Schedule
| A | 1:15 p.m. ET | China | Australia | |
| A | 6 p.m. ET | USA | Serbia | NBCSN |
| A | 9:30 p.m. ET | France | Venezuela |
| A | USA | 3-0 | 6 | 111 |
| A | Australia | 2-1 | 5 | 26 |
| A | France | 2-1 | 5 | 8 |
| A | Serbia | 1-2 | 4 | 8 |
| A | Venezuela | 1-2 | 4 | -64 |
| A | China | 0-3 | 3 | -89 |
| B | Lithuania | 3-0 | 6 | 23 |
| B | Argentina | 2-1 | 5 | 28 |
| B | Croatia | 2-1 | 5 | -2 |
| B | Spain | 1-2 | 4 | 6 |
| B | Brazil | 1-2 | 4 | -9 |
| B | Nigeria | 0-3 | 3 | -46 |
Full group listings and standings, as well as live streams of all the games, can be found at NBCOlympics.com.
Spain-Nigeria and Argentina-Lithuania sections provided by Adam Fromal.
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